Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#171

Post by rb808 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:02 PM UTC

waynecochran wrote: post #43

The technology is not the only problem. The lawyers that are defending every dead body, and there will be dead bodies, that will sink self-driving cars. Even if everyone is 95% safer with self-driving cars, those that are killed by a self-driving car (in combo with a public that is easily swayed with non-objective arguments) will be hard to dismiss.

Agreed, if a self driving car hits me and breaks my neck, who do I sue to pay my bills and care? The driver? The car manufacturer? Or the self driving software company? Right now with a driver its clear.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#172

Post by colordrops » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:02 PM UTC

dyeje wrote: post #131

It's kinda funny that we're investing so much into a potentially impossible technology just to avoid building public transport.

If it works it could be so much better in many ways. It's like a packet switching network instead of circuit switching. And there's no reason larger vehicles couldn't be part of this "packet-switched" vehicle network and act as a virtual public transport system.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#173

Post by URSpider94 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:02 PM UTC

jimktrains2 wrote: post #123

coolspot wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When roads belong exclusively to self-driving cars, they can increase speed, reduce gaps between cars and eliminate traffic wave effect. Imagine highway where everyone drives 80mph with 5ft of distance between cars. No one suddenly changes lanes, no one suddenly slows down for no reason. Here is illustration from Waymo testing facility: https://youtu.be/hKfEivMfDPU

Even if there is no reaction time, 5' of space at 50mph is silly. You still need room to maneuver if whatever caused the vehicle ahead to throw on its breaks comes back or halts the vehicle ahead faster than your breaks can stop you.

It’s basically a virtual tandem semi. The presumption is that you are delegating command and control to the lead vehicle, and there is bidirectional communication between the lead and follow vehicles.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#174

Post by seanmcdirmid » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:03 PM UTC

wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

That is a bit American centric. The value of self driving cars for society will be the ability to optimize existing road infrastructure. Cars can travel more closely together, can cooperate to work out bottlenecks, and so on. Think about the traffic problems Beijing is having, and that’s the huge opportunity for self driving tech.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#175

Post by semi-extrinsic » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:05 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#176

Post by p1mrx » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:05 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #86

robbrown451 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

I actually think autonomous taxi services will be niche. Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. Now the liability for that behaviour is with the driver. In an autonomous car the liability would be Uber which is why they won't do it. An Uber that needs to look for parking in order to pick you up is never going to work in most busy…

If passengers can jump into the car while it's moving slowly (sliding or gull wing doors), then you technically don't need somewhere to park.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#177

Post by ec109685 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:05 PM UTC

Yes, that is why trying to ship a level 5 car for the general public’s use is folly. There are .001 situations that will take 1000x the effort to automate, so automating almost all is a better approach.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#178

Post by vidarh » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:06 PM UTC

crusso wrote: post #9

Despite that, he's confident in VW's ability to make a Level 4 autonomous vehicle, saying that the upcoming I.D. Buzz electric van will be the first VW to receive the technology. He's poo-pooing level 5 autonomous driving and says that they just about have a level 4 autonomous vehicle? This article makes no sense. Honestly, the CEO of my company has very little idea of the details of the technology that we produce. I…

Consider the Osborne effect. And consider that this person has a strong vested interest in making sure potential VW customers does not decide to delay their car purchase decision in the hope of getting a more automated solution next year or the year after.

Maybe he's right, maybe he's not. But either way it'd be dumb of him to claim level 5 autonomous cars were right around the corner.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#179

Post by ehsankia » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:06 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #109

I think he is the one and only sane C-level person in the industry, after hearing this. People claiming most of AI hype barely know what the "AI" people mention is. And people who go as far as drawing rosy pictures of human like general AI being your personal chauffeur are past ridiculous. The entire idea of human-like general AI for practical applications is like trying to make people using horses for transport in 2…

Isn't it a little silly to call someone "only sane C-level person" after one comment?

Also, while claiming these innovations are only a few years way may be insane, saying they will never happen feels probably just as non-sense. History hasn't been on the side of such absolute claims.

It will take time, but Waymo already has working 100% self-driving cars out in the wild. Yes it's in a small area, with perfect weather, and with technicians ready to jump in, but it's still a good start and easily paves the way for it to extend over the next decade or so.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#180

Post by daenz » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:06 PM UTC

Edmond wrote: post #129

daenz wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A leader that fires people for challenging relevant mainstream opinions is not any kind of leader I want to work for or follow.

>A leader that fires people for challenging relevant mainstream opinions is not any kind of leader I want to work for or follow. There we go...most of the skepticism about self-driving cars appears to be driven by ideology and less by the actual evidence. "Mainstream opinions"...it is not an opinion, there are literally thousands of these cars being tested/piloted and improved upon constantly. Might it take a little…

>There we go...most of the skepticism about self-driving cars appears to be driven by ideology and less by the actual evidence. "Mainstream opinions"...it is not an opinion, there are literally thousands of these cars being tested/piloted and improved upon constantly.

You can't provide evidence of something that hasn't happened, and level 5 autonomous vehicles haven't happened. All you can provide is evidence of things we have already achieved, and use that to support a strong opinion that we will be able to achieve more things.

Anyways, back to my original point, firing someone for having an informed counter-mainstream opinion is the sign of a weak and petty leader.