Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

thedrive.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 923 posts

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#81

Post by dpflan »

Digory wrote: post #68
DasIch wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 80% solution already exists in the form of trains and airplanes. Self-driving cars that only go 80% of the way would compete against those forms of transportation which have established business models, networks and in the case of trains are subsidized in a way that self-driving cars likely won't ever be. Additionally the key advantage of cars is flexibility, not having to figure out how to get to or from the tr…

I suppose the car crowd would say environmental factors tilt toward cars over airplanes. In the US, trains are for freight. It would cost too much to create a new passenger rail network compared to automating existing intercity roads. Now, increasing the throughput of rail using self-driving trains could make a bundle in the US.

Self driving trains seems like an excellent problem space. Are you aware of any companies working on this?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#82

Post by temporaryvector »

shrubble wrote: post #8

If we put a wire in the road or maybe rfid tags every 40 feet, we could easily have self driving cars. However that would mean that everyone would have access to it. The idea of self driving cars now is, a winner take all situation where whichever funded effort that succeeds, generates outsized profits from licensing or going public at a high valuation.

If I were to put wires in roads, it would be for wireless charging, so that autonomous taxis and delivery vehicles could keep driving forever (or at least until they require maintenance) without needing to stop to charge.

I can see this happening gradually, beginning with docking stations, followed by parking spots with wireless charges and then downtown roads and highways. With each step reducing the required amount of space destined to parking.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#83

Post by kds3 »

bobthepanda wrote: post #56
wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

> If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when those conditions aren't met), then at least 80% of the value is there. Given that planes, which rely on a class of specifically trained professionals with minimum hour requirements, still have issues with this from time to time, I don't think this is a realistic thing for cars. Driving s…

> Given that planes, which rely on a class of specifically trained professionals with minimum hour requirements, still have issues with this from time to time

Most of this issues come from the fact that planes can't just stop in the middle of the road and wait for help, they have to land somewhere and do it fast enough not to be out of fuel.

Cars don't have to drive themselves to nearest service center when they encounter any hardware malfunction, they can just stop and unload passengers. Self-driving company would use another car to drive you to your destination (not even necessary self-driving car).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#85

Post by ogre_codes »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #27
ogre_codes wrote: post #21

This is arguably one of the biggest competitive advantages Tesla has. For $47,000 I can get an EV from Tesla with a better self-driving system[1] than a $100k Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lexus. I haven’t pulled the trigger on a Tesla yet, but I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now. For many people Tesla has made EV and self-driving table-stakes and nobody else is delivering on that. [1]…

>>I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now It's personal & subjective, and nobody will persuade anybody in a thread, but FWIW I absolutely positively can. - I'm unlikely to utilize self-driving any time soon - The stories of their firmware terrify me. And I don't want a DAW and computer games running on my ECU :O - More pragmatically though, the Tesla UI paradigm is completely foreign…

> It's personal & subjective, and nobody will persuade anybody in a thread, but FWIW I absolutely positively can.

I wasn’t trying to paint a broad picture because as you suggest, it’s subjective. But there is some evidence that I’m not alone.

https://www.wheelsjoint.com/tesla-model-3-is-wreaking-havoc-...

> I'm looking for a "HOTAS" type UI, where I can do anything I want without taking my eyes and focus off the road.

I agree, the cockpit design on the Tesla is not my choice and may actually be a deal breaker. But since there is a 30 day no commitment period I’m willing to give it a shot and see how it works in actual use.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#86

Post by threeseed »

robbrown451 wrote: post #51
wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

I actually think autonomous taxi services will be niche.

Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. Now the liability for that behaviour is with the driver. In an autonomous car the liability would be Uber which is why they won't do it.

An Uber that needs to look for parking in order to pick you up is never going to work in most busy cities. So I suspect you will see people opt for the driver based taxi service instead. Or maybe autonomous taxis will be reserved for emerging markets e.g. Indonesia which are more relaxed about parking.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#87

Post by ghaff »

wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

Both from a comfort and safety perspective, automating long highway drives is a big win. It’s still disappointing to urbanites in particular who thought they’d never need to own a car, drive anywhere, or maybe even learn to drive in the first place.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#88

Post by baybal2 »

Edmond wrote: post #77

Maybe this exec should be fired for incompetence and lack of vision. While self-driving is obviously a challenging problem, I am still bemused by people who think "it will never happen". An auto exec who believes that, is unfit for the job and definitely unfit for the future of that job.

I think people who overhyper very lacklustre neural algorithm based CV systems, thinking they can do what they cannot, are unfit for the job.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#89

Post by jariel »

Edmond wrote: post #77

Maybe this exec should be fired for incompetence and lack of vision. While self-driving is obviously a challenging problem, I am still bemused by people who think "it will never happen". An auto exec who believes that, is unfit for the job and definitely unfit for the future of that job.

To the contrary he should be admired for his candour.

It's very easy for execs to talk up utopian smack, it's harder the other way around.

I for one agree: L5 may not be viable for many decades at least, not with the tech we have. It may never happen because conditions will change to the point wherein it won't make sense.

What is viable, that nobody really talks about are 'controlled areas' - for example, highways built for long-haul trucks with 0 human drivers. This is a great place for AI because the conditions are set for all the crazy unknowns (esp. humans) to be controlled.

Special roadways within cities, where there are no pedestrians, AI drivers only, that can communicate with 'the grid' etc - could not only mean full L5 'driverless' but no stop-signs either - traffic could be designed to flow much, much more efficiently using 'today's tech'. Cars won't have steering wheels, they can be called 'on demand' and 'parking' will be very different, more like 'temp storage' and won't involve humans. All viable.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#90

Post by mikestew »

aplummer wrote: post #5

To go down in a long list of things executives said wouldn’t happen, that ended up happening.

What list? The one where Thomas Watson said there’d never be a world-wide market for more than five computers? Other than that, what else does that list have to stack up against:

Nuclear power, let alone fusion. What happened to “too cheap to meter”?

Supersonic travel: raynier already pointed out what a bust the Concorde was. Nothing else on the horizon now.

Automation giving me a 20 hour work week. Nope, capital holders just skim that efficiency right into their pockets.

I’d go on, but suffice it to say that about the only thing much different than my childhood in the 70s are computers in our pockets. Revolutionary, no doubt, but we are still burning oil for our energy needs, our cars don’t fly, and I still show up and do my 40 hours. And healthcare has gotten worse in the U. S., not better, if you can believe that.

So, yeah, when the head of the autonomous driving division of VW says Level 5 ain’t gonna happen, I don’t immediately jump to doubting him/her and attacking their resume.

Post reply on HN