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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

noteplan.co

211–220 of 275 posts

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's like trying to ban kindness. Oops, it's tricky.

No, it's not. Snotty comments like yours are also against the rules. There are more than enough examples of communities running without politics.

Again, it's been tried. Doesn't work for a place like HN that doesn't limit itself to topics where touchpoints with politics can be completely avoided. If you think otherwise, at least have an argument for why it should work better this time.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#212
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this letter didn’t come from some message board, but a source that is generally considered reliable (admin of gulagu). It would be good if you knew something about the topic before throwing around LARP-accusations. I’m willing to bet that you are completely unfamiliar with the people publicly involved in this release, odds are that you can’t even read Russian.

So maybe it’s genuine. Or the admin is bored. Or the admin got this sent randomly from someone. Maybe an FSB operative, or maybe a convincing troll, or Russian or Ukrainian or frankly any intelligence service. It’s completely unknowable. Any heuristics for determining authenticity go out the window, because they would be used by a faker too. Hell, even concluding it’s a fake is dangerous, because what if that’s the i…

This is the case with most journalism, no?

Here we have a well respected journalist with a solid track record claiming that they trust their source.

Doesn’t mean it’s necessarily true, but certainly lends credibility.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#213
Nobody can tell if this is fake or not, surely the "reports" part sounds very familiar to anybody who worked in big corporations filled with yes men and people willing to please their superiors to make a career.

This part sounds plausible, given how Russia is structured.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read about it like two weeks ago. They are desperate to find a justification for their war crimes. Given that Putin himself has been caught saying multiple lies, there is no point giving any credibility to them. Their "special operation" is not going to plan and they will be trying to use any trick to find some support for their atrocities.

It is perhaps history's most justified war. (In that it has so many contradictory justifications) 1. Ukraine is run by the first Jewish Nazi president. So obviously they needed to be denazified 2. Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders 3. Ukraine has WMDs! 4. Ukraine is actually just a part of Russia, and the Soviet Union just messed up and drew a…

> Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO border

A country not in NATO, and with no imminent prospects of membership, unlike the five NATO countries that actually share a land border with Russia.

At best, this does absolutely nothing about the amount of NATO on Russias border.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has been a accusing Ukraine of working to acquire nuclear weapons, with US assistance, for quite a while, though the specification that they intend to produce a dirty bomb may be a new twist on it.

Why would they need assistance? Nuclear weapons are 75 year old technology they're not difficult if you already have a nuclear industry to supply the materials.

> Why would they need assistance?

Has nothing to do with the facts, the assistance is just a way to make the same propaganda be anti-US and anti-Ukrainian.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#218
post #69

Interesting: news[1] just came out of Russia accusing Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb. This makes the letter seem more plausible, if it really preceeds the news. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-without-evidence...

[dead]

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is perhaps history's most justified war. (In that it has so many contradictory justifications) 1. Ukraine is run by the first Jewish Nazi president. So obviously they needed to be denazified 2. Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders 3. Ukraine has WMDs! 4. Ukraine is actually just a part of Russia, and the Soviet Union just messed up and drew a…

> Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders Not commenting on the other points but I think the general idea was to create a border state between Russia proper and said NATO countries, maybe out of the whole Ukraine with a Russian puppet as president, or out of several Ukrainian statelets. If it matters I do live in one of those NATO countries borderin…

the general idea was to install a Yanukovych 2.0 to disallow exfiltration of black money percentages to liberals, and not to the Russian oligarchs and connected presidency where it historically belongs to. democracy and free markets are a major disruption to their extortion business model.

plus they need Mariupol and the protected black sea harbors.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#220
post #37

It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

Bellingcat is just as independent and believable as CrowdStrike or ThreatConnect. The usual CIA proxies with the business to verify lies and propaganda.

In this case it sounds like QAnon, just a bit better.

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