Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

noteplan.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 275 posts

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#71

Post by benreesman »

afavour wrote: post #38
mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

I suspect the signal to noise ratio on any such discussion would be high. There are knowledgable folks in HN on non tech topics (as well as users living in Ukraine and Russia, presuming either are still able to access the site) but any discussion would likely be overrun with folks that have no particular knowledge but strong opinions they want to share instead.

I mean, at a bare minimum there have to be a bunch of military history / military theory / military hardware buffs on here.

That would fall pretty squarely into intellectually stimulating debate where a lot of people learn stuff territory right?

I’m personally curious as hell what non-classified information is available on how many RF boomers are running around, armed with what, and how closely they’re being shadowed by USN fast attack boats and I bet someone on here knows.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#72

Post by geeky4qwerty »

onemanstartup wrote: post #49

3 days to Blitzkrieg? - Fake.

This one was definitely a red flag for me regarding authenticity.

It seems far more like a slow surge offensive, siege technically. Look at US in Iraq, shock and awe was more akin to "blitzkrieg" and even that campaign took 3 weeks to secure Baghdad.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#73

Post by belter »

trhway wrote: post #47
belter wrote: post #41

Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake. The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituat…

Putin is green screened into that video. His hand in particular cuts the microphone magician style.

Those claims have been debunked, but hats off to Zelensky for trolling Putin on that one with his own mic move...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#74

Post by newgre »

trhway wrote: post #47
belter wrote: post #41

Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake. The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituat…

Putin is green screened into that video. His hand in particular cuts the microphone magician style.

no, this was a compression artefact in the low quality video. Check the high quality video: no clipping.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#75

Post by dragonwriter »

mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

> It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN.

Say, what, now?

I don't think war threads are staying front page very long, but there is lots of discussion happening.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#76

Post by throwmeariver1 »

tankenmate wrote: post #68
throwmeariver1 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Politics ought to be adjusted not to human reasonings but to human nature, of which reason is but a part and by no means the greatest part. -- Edmund Burke To make a somewhat contra-positive corollary; If you want to remove politics you need to remove humans. -- Me HN wouldn't be much without humans.

There are a lot of communities that are functioning way better after they implemented a strict no politics policy. It's a strawman argument. Especially considering the populous of hackernews of which 90% don't believe that they can be manipulated by advertising because they are too intelligent. It's gonna be a shitshow.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#77

Post by terramex »

rnhmjoj wrote: post #69

Interesting: news[1] just came out of Russia accusing Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb. This makes the letter seem more plausible, if it really preceeds the news. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-without-evidence...

It preceeds this news, I've seen original post translated into polish two days ago.

edit: here https://www.wykop.pl/wpis/64199473/translator-z-rosyjskiego-... and this was given as original source: https://t.me/Tsaplienko/1785 (last edited: Mar 4 at 18:29)

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#78

Post by tankenmate »

junon wrote: post #62
sva_ wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB I've only seen this being vouched by one guy on Twitter (Christo Grozev), or maybe I'm missing something? It seems very authentic, just very weird that an FSB guy would publicly post something like this.

That is who I'm referring to, yes. It was sent to a contact who then published it on their behalf. They were operating as a whistleblower, as I understand it.

I just had a flight of fancy; a russian intelligence agent who is worn out and somewhat cynical. I suspect most whistleblowers would probably prefer not to have a "codename", but it brought back memories of books I read when younger; and the name "Smileskiy" came to mind. Maybe the name might raise a sardonic chuckle to its new owner.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#79

Post by romland »

Great translation, and could possibly be interesting to confirm a handful of things that are guesses. Like others, I am, however, skeptical as to whether this is a genuine whistleblower. Essentially the piece says mostly things the west knows, thinks it knows or wants to think it knows.

So, I found myself reading it again looking for what the key piece of fear, uncertainty or doubt they could want to sow.

I think it would be this one:

> Does the possibility of a localised nuclear strike exist? > Yes.

Dangling the Silver Bullets will put fear in civilians and politicians alike. The obvious hope is that it will change narrative and negotiations.

> it's not one person who makes the decision, at least one person will refuse. And there's many people there, there isn't some "single red button".

I've read conflicting words on this one the last few days (from supposed Russian sources), the latest I saw when asked if Putin can trigger it by himself was someone saying "we don't know" and in the next breath "it's complicated".

I believe this is the only point of the piece.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#80

Post by dragonwriter »

rnhmjoj wrote: post #69

Interesting: news[1] just came out of Russia accusing Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb. This makes the letter seem more plausible, if it really preceeds the news. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-without-evidence...

Russia has been a accusing Ukraine of working to acquire nuclear weapons, with US assistance, for quite a while, though the specification that they intend to produce a dirty bomb may be a new twist on it.
Post reply on HN