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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#41

Post by belter »

Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake.

The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on.

"FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

Now...a more interesting analysis would be Putin latest video with the Aeroflot flight attendants of yesterday: https://liveandletsfly.com/putin-aeroflot-flight-attendants/

So for months was isolating himself from COVID, sitting with his own Generals: https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/L0WI8.kjuFrSXLM78cVtQQ--/Y...

visiting Presidents, like 300 feet away...then suddenly mingling around in close contact with everybody?

Was the distance thing just a power trip?

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#42

Post by throwmeariver1 »

mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

No post body was provided.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#43

Post by geeky4qwerty »

The critical question is what substance of fact does this information actually bring to the discussion that we haven't already heard?

It reads like a 4chan LARP rant, merely restating existing propaganda (true or false) talking points just repackaged into something that might appeal to the HN crowd.

Fog of war is thick right now.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#44

Post by agumonkey »

afavour wrote: post #38
mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

I suspect the signal to noise ratio on any such discussion would be high. There are knowledgable folks in HN on non tech topics (as well as users living in Ukraine and Russia, presuming either are still able to access the site) but any discussion would likely be overrun with folks that have no particular knowledge but strong opinions they want to share instead.

It seems that even people well versed in politics are often in the blur here.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#45

Post by sumedh »

Ygg2 wrote: post #29
mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

I think it's understandable. It's very hard to believe whatever either side is reporting. And before you say that's what Russian bots want you to believe, I'll add I lost my trust after Iraq war reporting (like who in their right mind confuses plot of The Rock (film) and WMD in real life), and then after Trump's victory in 2016 (media I was following at the time were making it out to be a sure fire thing for Hillary…

> out to be a sure fire thing for Hillary which is opposite of what happened

She could have probably won but Comey decided at the very end to open the email investigation again. That generated negative publicity for her.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#46

Post by chinathrow »

geeky4qwerty wrote: post #43

The critical question is what substance of fact does this information actually bring to the discussion that we haven't already heard? It reads like a 4chan LARP rant, merely restating existing propaganda (true or false) talking points just repackaged into something that might appeal to the HN crowd. Fog of war is thick right now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fog_of_war

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#47

Post by trhway »

belter wrote: post #41

Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake. The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituat…

Putin is green screened into that video. His hand in particular cuts the microphone magician style.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#48

Post by throwaway2048 »

junon wrote: post #37
eterevsky wrote: post #24

It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

Russia has been stating ukraine was trying to develop nuclear weapons for a week now.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#50

Post by sumedh »

ur-whale wrote: post #5
sss111 wrote: post #2

It could just be my ignorance, but is world hunger really as inevitable as they say. Couldn't other countries step up production or tap into their grain reserves? >World hunger is unavoidable... I can't tell you what the higher ups were thinking when they decided to go through with this operation

Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Wheat prices are through the roof right now [1], it's only going to get worse. So short-term impact pretty much guaranteed. Longer term, much of the euro zone agriculture is very dependent on fertilizers that are either produced using Russian natural gas or directly bought from there. Cost of growing food, if the situation d…

> Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia.

I dont think the US and Europe really care about that, they will send some token supplies but its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving.

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