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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#161
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no, this was a compression artefact in the low quality video. Check the high quality video: no clipping.

Look at his hand with the pen at 8:38-8:40, his palm, close to wrist, is definitely clipping into foreground

Yes we all saw those clips - but find the original HQ video first and make your opinion from that.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#162

While it looks like it’s interesting, I can’t help but feel that the informational content is zero of maybe even negative. There is absolutely no way for the lay internet user to corroborate one word of it that isn’t already public information. Whether it looks or feels plausible is also meaningless: it could “feel right” because it is, or because someone took effort to design it this way. So best thing for me is to…

The word for this is LARP (Live Action Role Play). This is where some message board troll uses publically available information and plausible extrapolations to pretend to be some "high level insider" leaking something. When the prediction doesn't pan out, the usual response is "two more weeks." Qanon is the most notorious and successful example of this phenomenon. You don't normally see these on HN, but they are comm…

the usual 'no time to reply'.

>If you have questions, ask them. I won't be able to answer for a few days, we're in emergency mode, and the work only keeps piling up.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#163

While it looks like it’s interesting, I can’t help but feel that the informational content is zero of maybe even negative. There is absolutely no way for the lay internet user to corroborate one word of it that isn’t already public information. Whether it looks or feels plausible is also meaningless: it could “feel right” because it is, or because someone took effort to design it this way. So best thing for me is to…

I found it interesting for the purely operational aspect: management ask for analysis without context, doesnt like answer so force better number, bubbles up for months to the top, war is declared on the basis of analysis, all is fucked because analysis was devoid of meaning. Now, need to fix the shit and Z stands for Nazi, Zelensky is war hero, Chechens dont understand why they were erased even before killing one civ…

What I found interesting was unconditional acceptance of "we did happy result analysis because otherwise we get criticize as always, had we knew it will end with failed conquest we would totally make truthful analysis to save Russia". Totally.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I noticed on many social networks is that Russian information warfare is working on spreading their propaganda. They will be coming to derail any conversation with lies, deflection and other manipulation techniques to sow doubts in the reports coming from Ukraine. They are quite crude so it is very easy to spot them if you know what to look for. I think their propaganda is mostly targeted at people who alre…

Everyone is affected by propaganda. There’s a quote from a famous magician (maybe Penn?) that smart people are the easiest to fool because they think they’re too smart to be fooled.

Dunning & Kruger had some choice words (backed by research) on the topic, too.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends what you define as win. Its true that russia will find it _very_ difficult to sustain this level of effort for any level of time. Its logistic capacity has been pushed way beyond efficiency. but with that in mind, whos going to push putin out of ukraine? yes the people can pick off soldiers for the next few years, but thats not peace. It is currently within Putin's grasp to freeze the conflict as it is now…

As the article says, assassinating Zelenskyy would make things worse, because Russia will no longer have anybody with similar authority to negotiate on Ukraine's behalf.

yup, but that doesn't mean Putin wont.

"Congratulations I have de-nazified your country. Please welcome your new Prefect. No, no, don't shoot him"

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#166
post #114

Is there any proof that Chechens soldiers have suffered heavy losses? There were rumors that Ukrainian army bombarded them after the Chechens themselves leaked their positions by posting videos on tiktok/instagram/telegram. The Kadyrov part in this text seems to be built on these rumors. edit: the part i am referring to: Kadyrov's lost his mind. Almost started another conflict with us. It's possible that the Ukrainia…

Let's not forget the US eye in the sky. I wonder if the US has now the ability to track the movement of every single tank, anti-air defense, troop carrier, across a whole country. It seems plausible to me.

specially trained can accomplish the task of tracking a moving object. according to the theories of image recognition and geolocation. embed that software on a swarm of satellites and voilà. add to that any other kind of metadata (heat, size, height, video, image, speed...).

military tech that is operated from the sky is an absolute advantage in this century.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#167

While it looks like it’s interesting, I can’t help but feel that the informational content is zero of maybe even negative. There is absolutely no way for the lay internet user to corroborate one word of it that isn’t already public information. Whether it looks or feels plausible is also meaningless: it could “feel right” because it is, or because someone took effort to design it this way. So best thing for me is to…

The word for this is LARP (Live Action Role Play). This is where some message board troll uses publically available information and plausible extrapolations to pretend to be some "high level insider" leaking something. When the prediction doesn't pan out, the usual response is "two more weeks." Qanon is the most notorious and successful example of this phenomenon. You don't normally see these on HN, but they are comm…

Except this letter didn’t come from some message board, but a source that is generally considered reliable (admin of gulagu).

It would be good if you knew something about the topic before throwing around LARP-accusations.

I’m willing to bet that you are completely unfamiliar with the people publicly involved in this release, odds are that you can’t even read Russian.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#168
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

Quoted post unavailable.

Only if you stop delivering the hottest of hot takes, live from the banks of the Crimea River.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#169
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

Quoted post unavailable.

I think the existing HN guidelines / norms should be sufficient for maintaining civil and constructive discussion. A lot of times public policy is directly relevant to technical topics, and who’s going to be the arbiter between legitimate political discourse and unacceptable (to whom?) politics?

Just stick to curious, good-faith discussion. Downvote flame war and personal attacks to reinforce these norms, but respond instead of downvoting for difference of opinion/viewpoint

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#170

While it looks like it’s interesting, I can’t help but feel that the informational content is zero of maybe even negative. There is absolutely no way for the lay internet user to corroborate one word of it that isn’t already public information. Whether it looks or feels plausible is also meaningless: it could “feel right” because it is, or because someone took effort to design it this way. So best thing for me is to…

I found it interesting for the purely operational aspect: management ask for analysis without context, doesnt like answer so force better number, bubbles up for months to the top, war is declared on the basis of analysis, all is fucked because analysis was devoid of meaning. Now, need to fix the shit and Z stands for Nazi, Zelensky is war hero, Chechens dont understand why they were erased even before killing one civ…

Creating a long fake is riskier than a short fake. Making mistakes is a risk, and so the more content the more risk.

As for the “reality” of working as an analyst in FSB it seems pretty accurate. Even if not true, it carries a certain truth.

The general analysis is consistent with what most people I’ve spoken with think. Russia is in a bad spot. They need to turn the narrative on Ukraine (one idea we thought of was a dirty bomb from waste)… I don’t think the content can prove it is authentic or not. Maybe when the author is found an punished we’ll hear about it.

The intelligence war has been amazing. The early game of leaking operational plans was incredible. To say “we have so much access we can burn it with abandon” is a huge flex.

The real time intelligence enabling the Ukrainians to respond precisely has also been incredible. From OSINT analysis to the OSINT crowd sourced collection using geolocation tagged videos and photos. Truly a new operational environment for an army to fight in.

Then all the perception management. Truly remarkable achievement. This will be in the textbooks as a case study, if… you know, we make to a point where we still have textbooks

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