The current situation is already a catastrophe as it is. The best possible outcome at this time is that this war is ended as soon as possible even when this means handing a few victory points to Russia. It is the only way at lot less Ukrainians will die and then I'm just ignoring the potential outcome of further escalation. Nothing the West is doing right now is working towards this outcome. We still seem to believe that at the end of the road there is some 'win' against Russia with tolerable costs for ourselves. The economic sanctions just boomerang with a comparable net loss to the West. Then there's millions of Ukrainian refugees who will need to be offered a somewhat humane existence in Europe at huge initial costs. The War in Syria already stretched Europe's capability to absorb refugees to the limit. Ukraine has more than twice the number of citizens. The Western leaders has got to stop this pretense of "we got this" and "we can hurt Russia more than it can hurt us". We don't have this.
Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
201–210 of 310 posts
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#202This isn't anything new. That's always been Japan's position on the "Northern Territories" as it's commonly called here. From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan: https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/overvi...
China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?
> When was the last time US got sanctions?
A more relevant question would be "from whom?" You can't sanction someone much, much larger than yourself.
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#203There’s no question in my mind that this is Putin continuing to follow the Foundations of Geopolitics playbook:
> Russia should manipulate Japanese politics by offering the Kuril Islands to Japan and provoking anti-Americanism
From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#204Just yesterday I was thinking: What if others started to grab territory, which Russia claims to be its territory around the world now? Wouldn't that be fortunate timing and overload Russian army? Today I read this.
There is very little Russian overseas territory, most of Russia's territorial claims are to, er, neighboring states.
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#205In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…
What is happening is quite opposite to what you propose.
NATO will increasingly be seen as an ineffective formulation for security of Europe as it has been demonstrated by Russia to Europeans. (The choices [it affords] are roll over or start a nuclear war. That's not a 'security' framework.) Sovereign European states will definitely (re)consider reaching 1-to-1, direct, security and treaty arrangements with Russia. Some may object to my prognosis here, and we'll soon find out after the Baltic States matter takes center stage. (Yes, imo Ukraine will surrender and accept terms.) NATO may actually go the way of Warsaw Pact sooner than you think.
US Dollar dominance has been, apparently by US itself, dealt a fatal blow. UK's ill-gotten "oligarch" wealth safe kitty has also suffered. The Swiss too pissed on their neutrality. Powerful entities and individuals will be seeking alternative safe havens. What many Americans fail to recognize is that US Dollar dominance is what permits this nation to manage stupendous levels of debt. What they also fail to recognize is that non-American elite in US orbit were OK with the political arrangements as long as they got to get a cut of the global financial arrangement and lived in "security", but being forbidden to invest in other countries and a rapidly shrinking non-sanctioned global pie is most certainly affecting these long standing calculations.
The intelligence services of the West have also suffered a huge blow. They still have no idea of where this will stop as far as Russia is concerned, and far more importantly, US apparently has NO IDEA as to the level of agreement between China and Russia. They keep probing and asking. No one knows! Yesterday there was literally a flurry of articles in WSJ, FT, Asiatimes, etc. directly addressing China. Asiatimes did its best to put the fear of being cutoff from EU in top article.
Biggest losers in all this will be us little people in every country. Heavy handed security posture by states, surveillance, economic stress, and even greater jingoistic media in guise of "journalism" will be the order of the day. Looks like the 1984 vision was ultimately chosen over Brave New World.
(Just my opinion.)
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
I didn't realise it was such a big thing until I visited a festival in Hokkaido a few years back and there was a very large and busy stall soliciting signatures for a petition over the Kurils and with lots of photographs and maps. It seemed slightly delusional (but mostly harmless) to me at the time, but now - who knows?
It's pretty delusional even in Japan, nobody seriously expects Russia to return them. Early in the post-Soviet era there were some serious-ish proposals about Russia handing them back in exchange for massive financial aid, but ever since Putin took the reins it's been obvious that this is just not going to happen. I don't think even the Japanese government wants them back at this point, Hokkaido (the nearest big isla…
I'm not a fishing expert but I think officially owning those islands would affect their Exclusive Economic Zone. If the fishing there is good they could turn a profit even if administering the islands costs some yen.
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
This will very likely end by both parties pronouncing they are the victors here. For Ukraine the victory might be that Russia will most likely be unable to take Kiev and need to "withdraw" closer to their own borders i.e. the victory is not submitting in the "heroic" sense. However with a staggering economic loss and loss of life (including the refugees that might never return). For Russia their victory will be claim…
The loss of life is the real problem for Ukraine. I don't doubt that once this is over, the US and the EU will launch a generous reconstruction plan. Ukraine may end up with much better infrastructure in place of the destroyed one. This could be financed from seized oligarchs' wealth. No need to spend taxpayer money. And Western construction companies will like those contracts, doubly so after Covid.
I hope that EU will give to Ukraine smth besides weapon as fast as possible after war is gone.
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hawaii? Philippines / Guam / etc? Guantanamo? Panama canal? But I see Russia invading and occupying, not annexing (unless you mean stationing troops in the “independent” regions). They specifically disavow annexing unless the government refuses to negotiate and sign a peace agreement. They already did this exact playbook in the Russo-Georgian war, down to defending the two breakaway republics, the provocations, the “…
So, the last time the US annexed land by force was the 1800s and the Spanish American war. That's probably why the US isn't getting sanctioned, but Russia is and China would. Meanwhile, I look at Crimea and say Russia isn't shy about annexing. And this particular thread was trying to talk about if China could invade Taiwan without sanctions, using examples of Russia and the US as similar powers. My point is that wars…
> wars of annexation are met with sanctions
By your logic PRC "reunifying" with TW wouldn't be met with sanctions because it's a civil war where TW is de jure recognized as part of Chinese territory, at least by parties who can do meaningful sanctions. After all PRC can't annex what's already legally hers.
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
When is the last time the US annexed land or tried to?
Hawaii? Philippines / Guam / etc? Guantanamo? Panama canal? But I see Russia invading and occupying, not annexing (unless you mean stationing troops in the “independent” regions). They specifically disavow annexing unless the government refuses to negotiate and sign a peace agreement. They already did this exact playbook in the Russo-Georgian war, down to defending the two breakaway republics, the provocations, the “…
> And that war was also immediately after a NATO related escalation.
What 'NATO related escalation' immediately preceded Russia's invasion of the Ukraine? I don't believe that there was one. As far as I can tell, Putin's casus belli is 'the Ukraine exists.'
Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Curious that, at least in the case of Georgia and Ukraine, those territories only decided they didn't want to be part of their countries when Russian troops rolled in and made totally non-threatening offers.
>Curious that, at least in the case of Georgia That's not entirely true. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhaz%E2%80%93Georgian_confli...
Well, from the Wiki: "a militia composed of ethnic Georgians who lived in Abkhazia and Russian-backed separatist forces".
Sure, there may be a slice of population that wants to leave but how can that be gouged properly when Russia keeps influencing the people and supplying weapons to separatists? There's a cause and effect here.