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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I corrected that. Apparently, there was just a fishing village there. As of March 8, 2022, China has no claims on Russian land, but history shows that if a juicy opportunity turns up, countries start to come up with claims that were previously forgotten. Yes, this scenario is unlikely. But not beyond reasonable doubt. Multinational empires have imploded and disintegrated before (Tsarist Russia, Austria-Hungary, the O…

Vladivostok/Primorsky Krai is ethnically Russian though. If Russia ceases to exist as a mutli-ethnic empire, it would unlikely be the part that breaks off.

There are many Chinese citizens present in Vladivostok.

I guess that a potential takeover of the territory would look more like the takeover of Tibet in 1950. A fait accompli executed on a very short timeline.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#142
post #45

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

Is there any particularly strong desire within Abkhazia to return to being part of Georgia proper? I'm sure in the event of a Russian collapse it would likely be reintegrated by Georgia anyway, but my naive understanding was that they'd always considered themselves a distinct people and separate territory and that being allied to Russia was convenient for both (with the Abkhaz being able to largely self-rule on paper at least, and Russia getting a pliant neighbour it can exert a lot of power over and perhaps annex at a future convenient date)

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#143
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

>>and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory Well, let me expand that knowledge then - Poland would love to integrate that bit of land, because currently the fact that the only entrance to the Polish port of Elbląg is controlled by Russia is a major ballache that stops the development of the region, enough so that the Polish government has agreed to spend billions of Polish zlotys to dig a…

Poland has not expressed any wish to integrate that, nor any other territories. I can imagine it getting separated from Russia and even joining the EU at some point, but only as a sovereign entity.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#144
post #131
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?

When is the last time the US annexed land or tried to?

Before WWII, I reckon. The USA actually went on a colony-freeing spree after WWII, most notably in granting the Philippines independence.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#145
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't realise it was such a big thing until I visited a festival in Hokkaido a few years back and there was a very large and busy stall soliciting signatures for a petition over the Kurils and with lots of photographs and maps. It seemed slightly delusional (but mostly harmless) to me at the time, but now - who knows?

It's pretty delusional even in Japan, nobody seriously expects Russia to return them. Early in the post-Soviet era there were some serious-ish proposals about Russia handing them back in exchange for massive financial aid, but ever since Putin took the reins it's been obvious that this is just not going to happen. I don't think even the Japanese government wants them back at this point, Hokkaido (the nearest big isla…

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#146
post #131
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?

When is the last time the US annexed land or tried to?

Hawaii? Philippines / Guam / etc? Guantanamo? Panama canal?

But I see Russia invading and occupying, not annexing (unless you mean stationing troops in the “independent” regions). They specifically disavow annexing unless the government refuses to negotiate and sign a peace agreement. They already did this exact playbook in the Russo-Georgian war, down to defending the two breakaway republics, the provocations, the “peacekeeping mission”, the invasion, and demilitarization (through defeating their army). And that war was also immediately after a NATO related escalation.

Spot the difference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

The differences were:

1) NATO countries didn’t send endless amounts of fighter jets and drones to Georgia

2) France helped broker a peace agreement

A few months later, Russia’s troops withdrew and Georgia is an independent country.

On the other hand, a lot of lessons were learned by USSR in Afghanistan — a quagmire for 10 years where USA trained Mujahideen against the Soviets. Russia+China+Pakistan returned the favor in Afghanistan with arming the Taliban when USA occupied it for 20 years and spent trillions. Afghanistan has never been defeated, but has become a war-ravaged country with a shitty economy.

As Ukrainians say: the West is ready to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian!

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#147
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

I guess it depends on how you define "losing". I don't see any scenario where Russia actually "wins". Thus, in turn, I think it's ok to say they will definitely lose this.

This will very likely end by both parties pronouncing they are the victors here.

For Ukraine the victory might be that Russia will most likely be unable to take Kiev and need to "withdraw" closer to their own borders i.e. the victory is not submitting in the "heroic" sense. However with a staggering economic loss and loss of life (including the refugees that might never return).

For Russia their victory will be claiming they "secured" the 2 rebel republics/Crimea. Also at a staggering loss - some of it army but mostly incredible economic sanctions. It remains to be seen if Putins regime will be able to survive that in the long run.

In terms of the classical definition I guess you could call it a stalemate - don't see how either of them can win - everybody loses. Who loses less - arguably I'd say economic sanctions still do not hurt as much as the decades Ukraine will need to rebuild. And Russia still has a huge amount of natural resources that others need and are willing to pay for.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#148
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

According to a video I found linked on another thread ( https://youtu.be/b4wRdoWpw0w?t=119 ) Russia has moved around 75% of its principal combat units to the Ukraine border. The Ukraine invasion appears to be using a significant portion of their conventional military power.

[deleted]

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#149
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't they remain part of Russia like they historically were (well, I mean since Russia took over form the Tatars, of course) and seem to want? It's not because Russia has taken Crimea back in a rather cavalier way that they should be split again just to weaken Russia. This can only perpetuate resentment and problems.

Speaking only as an American, I don't think we really know what Crimeans want. Russia isn't well-known for legitimate democratic voting, and the Crimean referendum has never been acknowledged by Western Democracies. I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it. But the question alw…

> I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it.

> But the question always goes - where do we draw lines. Should we support the concept of the Confederate States of America seceding from the United States? If California or Texas wanted to secede, should we support it? Wales? Okinawa? Quebec?

Why drawing a line? It's either you allow everyone to choose their country, or noone. Allowing Crimea but not California, or allowing Kosovo but not Mexico and allowing Slovakia and not Catalonia is the worst solution. Right now, it's completely arbitrary, and this arbitration is what leads to wars and conflicts.

I would say, let them all decide for themselves.

Do you want to allow Ukraine to be independent? Then also allow Donbas republic to be independent of Ukraine, and consequently allow cities in Donbas that wish to stay in Ukraine to secede from Donbas. And even within those cities, allow neighbourhoods that want to stay in Donbas to stay.

Why not, if that's what people want? And that would mean no war. Yes, it may be complex in an administrative way. Who wants to show passport to cross the street and go to the store. Or to cross borders twice when going to work? Or to apply for a work permit? But exactly that complexity would quickly lead to different agreements and territorial rearrangements if people decide it's better for them. Again, why not? If they agree, they can change the state every year or so. If you let people power to decide, they will be more responsible for purely selfish reasons. That's how capitalism works, why not politics?

As soon as you draw a line who can and who can't decide, you are creating a conflict that may or may not lead to war and other atrocities.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#150
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

Can people who downvoted this explain why?

I don't know much about Crimea and its situation but I've spent considerable time in both Abkhazia and Transnistria; I have a number of businesses that I have based out of Tiraspol and Sokhumi. While far from a fan of Russia's interventions in both regions, I have long felt, form talking to as many people as possible in both nations, that the majority (although not necessarily an overwhelming one) support the countries being independent from Tbilisi and Chișinău, respectively.

I'm more than happy to have my priors re-adjusted here.

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