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New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#201

Post by cameldrv »

zepearl wrote: post #130
cameldrv wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The virus progresses from infection to death in more like 3 weeks, depending on medical care. Any change in infections wouldn't be seen for about that time.

Right - but it isn't completely clear yet. From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.h... : A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection. From https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit : ...the incubation period can be up to 14 days. In addition, there…

The progression to death is something like: (very rough, from memory)

Day 0: Infection

Day 5: First Symptoms

Day 11: Hospital admission/shortness of breath/oxygen

Day 14: Ventilator

Day 21: Death

If there's no ventilator on day 14, the process is tragically accelerated.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#202

Post by triceratops »

nostromo wrote: post #169
bananabreakfast wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old people are not the only ones dying.

Data from an Italian study: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... Median age is 80.5. That's actually near the life expectancy of an Italian male. 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About half of the deaths were people suffering from three or more other illnesses. To put it very bluntly, a lot of the folks dying from COVID-19 were already dying. COVID-19 is the straw t…

Does that take into account people dying of other treatable causes because they couldn't get care because of the surge of COVID-19 cases?

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#203

Post by vonmoltke »

romants wrote: post #158
guenthert wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it won't. If people mingle and fail to "flatten the curve", the whole mess will be over sooner, albeit with more dead old people. If you believe you can starve the virus of hosts, you're delusional.

What about China and South Korea? It's possible, but people do need to be more responsible

I think it is dangerously premature to call anything in China or Korea "over".

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#204

Post by vkou »

romants wrote: post #158
guenthert wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it won't. If people mingle and fail to "flatten the curve", the whole mess will be over sooner, albeit with more dead old people. If you believe you can starve the virus of hosts, you're delusional.

What about China and South Korea? It's possible, but people do need to be more responsible

They are both still under lockdown.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#205

Post by roskilli »

nostromo wrote: post #185
gokhan wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might be deadly wrong. About half of those infected in New York City are under 50 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/nyregion/coronavirus-new-... ...preliminary figures released on Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that adults ages 20 to 44 represent nearly one-third of U.S. coronavirus patients whose ages are known. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-millen...

Anyone can get infected of course. Does that surprise you? The study was regarding fatalities. In any case, it's not me who you're calling "deadly" wrong, it's the Italian Ministry of Health.

CDC published numbers on Wednesday night that 40% of hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the US are adults younger than the age of 54.

Sure they're not fatalities, but do you really want to go to an overcrowded hospital for COVID-19? (Will be worse when ventilators run out and hospitalization can't help you nearly as much)

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#206

Post by redisman »

quartzite wrote: post #100
y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #95

At this point wouldn't it be better to just implement a Chinese-style martial law lock-down? The damage to the economy is already here. Might as well shut things down for 3-4 weeks and slowly open up sections of a city. That seems better to me then dragging this thing out for 3 months or longer. I feel like these "stages" of lock-down are doing nothing but delaying the inevitable which will cause more damage in the l…

Exactly. All this talk of "flattening the curve" is counterproductive if the curve remains flattened right at capacity for an extended period of time, which is what these measures will cause, rather than spiking for a short period.

No one in this country is mentally ready for hospitals to just not be available for an unknown amount of time. IMHO this would cause complete societal breakdown. It's one of our basic needs like food and shelter.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#207

Post by y-c-o-m-b »

icelancer wrote: post #192
y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #95

At this point wouldn't it be better to just implement a Chinese-style martial law lock-down? The damage to the economy is already here. Might as well shut things down for 3-4 weeks and slowly open up sections of a city. That seems better to me then dragging this thing out for 3 months or longer. I feel like these "stages" of lock-down are doing nothing but delaying the inevitable which will cause more damage in the l…

>> The damage to the economy is already here You think it can't get worse?

On the contrary, I know it will get worse regardless of what we do. The question is does it get more worse with a long drawn out lock-down or a short and stern one?

EDIT: a word

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#208

Post by redisman »

quartzite wrote: post #84

It will be impossible for us to permanently stop the spread with half measures. As viral spread continues due to half hearted social distancing, when will we be able to return to normalcy? Given the characteristics of this virus even a few cases floating around seem to be enough to reignite contagion. So we persist in stasis for a month or a year with no end in sight while the economy begins to collapse, which will a…

These current shutdowns are really just to buy some time for all the steps you talked about. Basically get a re-try and try to go for a more SK/Taiwan style approach.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#209

Post by ambicapter »

Dirlewanger wrote: post #187
y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #95

At this point wouldn't it be better to just implement a Chinese-style martial law lock-down? The damage to the economy is already here. Might as well shut things down for 3-4 weeks and slowly open up sections of a city. That seems better to me then dragging this thing out for 3 months or longer. I feel like these "stages" of lock-down are doing nothing but delaying the inevitable which will cause more damage in the l…

Governments would love that. Also, don't think things regarding their newfound powers would go "back to normal" either after.

What "newfound" powers? Did they pass any new laws for these powers? Seems like they always had them, so your scenario doesn't make sense.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#210

Post by redisman »

spking wrote: post #148
jniedrauer wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps Washingtonians are taking the recommendations more seriously I doubt that. I'm in a mid sized city in WA and I've seen a notable increase in traffic in the last week. People are leaving their homes more now. Most of the offices are empty so I'm not entirely sure where they're going, but they're going somewhere.

Seconding this. We're 30 miles north of Seattle and there are tons of people still out and about. Beautiful weather isn't helping.

Seattle area is much sparser than NYC or SF. I still go out for walks and stuff and don't really see very many people and I'm only 20 minutes north of downtown. Keeping a 20ft distance is very easy.
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