DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it • Hacker News Board

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#181

Post by vsnf » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:12 AM UTC

shiandow wrote: post #173

Eji1700 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vegas makes a fuckload of money off everyone who thinks they’re smart but doesn’t understand statistics

They probably make quite a lot off people who think they understand statistics as well.

I'd be willing to be that the intersection of people who think this and then choose to engage in gambling anyway, is probably one of the highest grossing demographics that exist.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#182

Post by KptMarchewa » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:13 AM UTC

rpmisms wrote: post #76

cratermoon wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard a joke a tech conference people in Vegas many years ago. It goes something like "people who go to tech conferences in Vegas bring one shirt and a $20 bill and never change either." So yea, programmers generally aren't gamblers because they know enough math to know the house always wins.

In my experience, programmers like poker, but not games of chance. This also describes me. Poker is a data-heavy game of skill and memory, Craps is about the opposite.

Most people appreciate the skill poker requires, but like me never want to bother learning it. If I (very rarely) go to casino I'd just play games of chance for a defined loss budget and just stop playing when I either lose it or win enough to get dinner for the group.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#183

Post by zmgsabst » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:19 AM UTC

dmurray wrote: post #179

somenameforme wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Expected return on a machine and profit margin on that machine are literally identical. Imagine there's a hypothetical $1 machine where we simply remove variance. So you insert $1 and you get $0.75 back. It should be clear that for each $1 of revenue, the casino profits $0.25. This is a 25% profit margin. Variance can add some noise, but does not change the long-term expectation, which is what the regulations are bas…

That sounds intuitive, but that's just not how revenue is defined for a business like a casino. The casino had $0.25 revenue, and its profit is whatever is left from the $0.25 after paying for heat, light, maintenance, cashiers, security, etc. Other businesses are treated like this too. If you are a high frequency trading firm and you buy 1000 shares stock for $99.99 each and sell for $100, you didn't have $100k of r…

This is similar to not counting bank deposits as revenue and withdrawals as costs. Only when your money goes to pay fees is it booked as bank revenue. The same for money transmitters like Western Union.

And perhaps is more obvious when you consider what happens when there’s only players, eg, poker. The pot is held in trust, until the game ends and the losers forfeit their money to the winner. At no point does it belong to the casino.

That doesn’t change when the casino is also a player.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#184

Post by raldi » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:19 AM UTC

killjoywashere wrote: post #105

You know, why the fuck is DEFCON in August, in Vegas? Like, you know a nice place to visit in August? Kodiak, Alaska. Portsmouth, Maine. Sydney. List of places I would never want to visit in August? Vegas. Houston. Vegas. New Orleans. Vegas. Mumbai? Maybe. Baghdad? Definitely not. Also, Vegas. My friends in Christ, why, does anyone, think Vegas is a good idea in August?

Check out https://www.flightsfrom.com/explorer/LAS — particularly comparing its direct flights from all over the continental US to the same for other American cities.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#185

Post by blitzar » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:20 AM UTC

serf wrote: post #61

smt88 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My first thought was that GP was saying DefCon attendees would be counting cards, which is an effective and legal way to beat the house[1] (until you're caught and banned from the casino). 1. https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2016/04/...

'legal' has no meaning here when it's against every single casino policy in the world.

Winning is against casino policy too but that doesnt stop people trying.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#186

Post by aestetix » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:23 AM UTC

Early DefCons were on the strip, and for reasons never officially made public, DefCon got banned from the strip. AFAIU, that's why it was in the Alexis Park for many years. I was actually surprised when I learned it was allowed back onto the strip. Given the high rate of incidents and the surface area for attack, I completely understand why Caesar's dropped them. What I don't get is how they allowed DefCon back onto the strip in the first place.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#187

Post by TulliusCicero » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:24 AM UTC

killjoywashere wrote: post #105

You know, why the fuck is DEFCON in August, in Vegas? Like, you know a nice place to visit in August? Kodiak, Alaska. Portsmouth, Maine. Sydney. List of places I would never want to visit in August? Vegas. Houston. Vegas. New Orleans. Vegas. Mumbai? Maybe. Baghdad? Definitely not. Also, Vegas. My friends in Christ, why, does anyone, think Vegas is a good idea in August?

Vegas is probably cheap in August, both for the con to reserve space and also for the attendees to get hotels.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#188

Post by IshKebab » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:28 AM UTC

Eji1700 wrote: post #142

c0pium wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are certainly a lot of DefCon attendees who think that this describes them. In my observation they are all very incorrect, usually humorously so fortunately.

Vegas makes a fuckload of money off everyone who thinks they’re smart but doesn’t understand statistics

Not just statistic. There are plenty of smart defcon people who understand statistics but don't understand that if you start winning they'll just kick you out.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#189

Post by _cenw » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:29 AM UTC

raldi wrote: post #184

killjoywashere wrote: post #105

You know, why the fuck is DEFCON in August, in Vegas? Like, you know a nice place to visit in August? Kodiak, Alaska. Portsmouth, Maine. Sydney. List of places I would never want to visit in August? Vegas. Houston. Vegas. New Orleans. Vegas. Mumbai? Maybe. Baghdad? Definitely not. Also, Vegas. My friends in Christ, why, does anyone, think Vegas is a good idea in August?

Check out https://www.flightsfrom.com/explorer/LAS — particularly comparing its direct flights from all over the continental US to the same for other American cities.

That settles it, DEF CON in Dubai, London or Amsterdam. I vote for Amsterdam.

Frankfurt also has the most international destinations (just not volume).

(Probably not Dubai, considering a few speakers would be thrown out at the border - or worse if they get though. It's also artificially inflated because it's almost all transit traffic).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_by_in...

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#190

Post by ChatGTP » Mon, Feb 05, 2024, 8:30 AM UTC

killjoywashere wrote: post #105

You know, why the fuck is DEFCON in August, in Vegas? Like, you know a nice place to visit in August? Kodiak, Alaska. Portsmouth, Maine. Sydney. List of places I would never want to visit in August? Vegas. Houston. Vegas. New Orleans. Vegas. Mumbai? Maybe. Baghdad? Definitely not. Also, Vegas. My friends in Christ, why, does anyone, think Vegas is a good idea in August?

Please, for the sake of your own health, calm down.