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The Facebook bubble just popped

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181–190 of 225 posts

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"people who hold positions that are being publically shamed tend to lie to pollsters" Alternate theory: People did not lie to the pollsters -- but there was voting fraud, and Trump didn't win.

Of course there was fraud. We know better than most how easily a box can get pwned when the attacker has unsupervised physical access for a few minutes, and the manufacturer gives short shrift to security and practices security through obscurity--such as by keeping the source tightly closed. The question is whether Trump supporters were better at cheating than Clinton supporters, or better at covering their tracks. E…

"no actual, living person could"

It doesn't have to be one person. It could be multiple teams of people.

They don't have to intervene all over the country, either. They could make a huge difference by affecting a relatively small number of votes in a handful of battleground states where the race is very close.

In the case of Bush v Gore, it would have been sufficient to make a difference in only one state.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#182

A popular uprising against Silicon Valley is coming. Already I hear it from people in my life, all over the country. They blame social media for allowing the Trump memes to warp people's opinion. They're starting to put the pieces together on unemployment and blame tech automation for taking jobs and not offering a replacement, especially in the heartland. They're angry with Silicon Valley execs for not putting up an…

And sure, Facebook and Twitter played a part in this information aspect certainly. But companies like Salesforce that automate people out of work, these companies have zero accountability for the people who get laid off when eliminated with CRM workflows for example. There's no framework for understanding the consequences of who you eliminate when you automate. How are these people supposed to feed their families when you've automated them out of work?

As a tech worker, I've been responsible for eliminating far more American jobs, many in the heartland, than any Mexican immigrant ever has. What have I done to deal with the consequences of that? Many, many people have been laid off because of the things I've built in the last 15 years. I ignored them, told myself they weren't valuable anyhow. We owe these people solutions for basic income, we owe them more opportunities for jobs out in the red states, the red counties of america. We created this. All of it.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#183
post #101

We're all definitely in an echo chamber. Hacker News is an echo chamber. So is Reddit, FB, Twitter, etc. This is what happens when, as an industry, we move towards "personalization". All of our "personalized" feeds allow businesses to increase their ad revenue, but it siphons us away from the rest of the world. 30 years ago, we were beholden to the large media outlets, which is also bad, but I believe we've overcorre…

HN is an echo chamber when it comes to tech choices, but it's absolutely not when it comes to politics. I've seen many pro-Trump supporters in the ranks here, which is very surprising given the demographic.

Really?

When I read HN, I got the feeling, most political comments that get upvoted are phrased like "I know everyone here is a liberal leftist, BUT I have to tell you about my conservative right opinion right now, even if you don't wanna hear it!"

But I never really encountered these "liberal leftist" majority here. Just in places of the Internet that don't have anything good to say about HN.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be, but personally I'm done with being silent and just chuckling silently to myself or rolling my eyes when people pull out these infotainment zingers disguised as "insight". The last year has ripped covers off the culture war that the US has been slowly boiling in like a frog. BLM and Trump aren't one offs, there are tons of people with serious gripes in this country, and for myself I'd rather call out the BS…

Could be, but personally I'm done with being silent and just chuckling silently to myself or rolling my eyes when people pull out these infotainment zingers disguised as "insight". I agree. Throwing a derogatory zinger out there like "SJW" (which is unquestionably a dog whistle... anyone who would claim otherwise is being dishonest) does nothing to enhance public discourse, and it's about time we all worked to recogn…

I don't live in the US... what does SJW mean?

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#185
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have a college degree, and I don't consider myself a racist redneck. I don't know where you're getting this from.

You replied to a comment about how Tom Brokaw literally said on national TV that Trump voters were uneducated racist rednecks that watch Duck Dynasty. In that reply, you defended his position. That's where I'm getting it from.

I think you're misusing the term "literally".

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he won 2 extra states he had no business winning. thats not barely winning.

In Michigan, a state where 41/2 million votes were cast, he won by ~10,000 votes. That's nearly the definition of barely winning.

except he did it multiple times in the rust belt.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 59million liked all new age sjw stuff That is such an absurd and reductionist dismissal of this election that is no different than the equally wrong people saying "59 million people liked all the old sexist, homophobic, racist and xenophobic attitudes, and 59 million other people didn't" What you are doing here is just perpetuating the problems that have plagued this election cycle and made it so people are complet…

He's actually not that wrong if you think about it. This cultural divide was a major issue : https://reason.com/blog/2016/11/09/trump-won-because-leftist...

Recognizing a cultural divide is fine, labeling one side new age SJW's and the other side racists bigots doesn't do that though. It just polarizes us even more and actively moves us further apart when we desperately need to start looking at ways to come together.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#188
post #152
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He should call it quits together with all other pollsters. All that predicting is at best a totally useless activity or even worse, it influences voter behavior. Bet on football games instead. At least that doesn't do damage to the country.

The main point of polls is to influence and give social proof to selected candidate. Don't believe me? When you look how they are constructed it becomes clear. Too bad for Clinton campaign she was highly unlikable and even the most expensive campaign in history couldn't help her.

Agreed. All polling and media was totally skewed against Sanders (and then Trump).

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#189

Not to mention realclearpolitics and projectthirtyfive all had poll after poll with all the number crunching data saying Clinton would win. In the end.. clinton: 59,938,290 votes trump: 59,704,886 votes 59million liked all new age sjw stuff 59million other people didn't

I don't think you understand how statistics and probability work.

Reporting 65% chances of a Clinton victory doesn't mean you're saying Clinton will win.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#190
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really a new idea. This effect is called preference falsification: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preference_falsification For those who don't want to follow the link: "individuals convey preferences that differ from what they genuinely want"

No, the idea of being persecuted for what you believe and then in turn, lying in public about it is not a new idea. It doesn't need a Wikipedia article nor a term for it. It has been around since the beginning of time. What is new is that this sort of environment is taking hold in the US, which is unfortunate. And this forum is as guilty as any other. People lambasted Peter Thiel for speaking his mind and voting his…

> What is new is that this sort of environment is taking hold in the US, which is unfortunate. And this forum is as guilty as any other. People lambasted Peter Thiel for speaking his mind and voting his wallet. They demanded his head and spoke of repercussions.

Very true unfortunately. That's not all of HN of course. Many of us supported Thiel and his ideas, or else thought it was worth having an opposing voice around even if they disagreed with it.

I wrote an essay on Peter Thiel's ideas and (partly about) how the Media misunderstood him here:

https://medium.com/@internaut_48577/peter-and-the-wolfe-b8de...

It was composed from a chain of HN comments before the election went to Trump, so I can credibly state that I saw a media malfunction with reality on the cards.

I was watching his press conference from a few days ago at the National Press Club event, and I really did Laugh Out Loud when he said (paraphrasing), "You know, this is pretty much the first time I'm not making a contrarian stance, I mean literally how can I be a contrarian when half the population agree with me, and for this I get the flak? Unbelievable!".

Together with the investment in Seasteading, this has been incredibly high impact for comparatively minor sums of money. Thiel has managed managed to make himself the only venture capitalist in Silicon Valley who appeals to the majority of the working class. That is power. He'll be reaping dividends from that for the rest of his life.

This is because many serious inventions and innovations were created by the working class, not the middle class as they appear to think today. In fact historically (and I would argue currently too) the middle classes and elites looked down on entrepreneurship. Entreprenurship is seen as being unprofessional. Most engineering was created by working class with the aristocrats holding up the exploration of science. The water mills, the steam engines, these were not created by the kind of people who studied at universities. We no longer understand our own past.

This may sound like an attempt at provocation, but I swear it is not. I really do think many of the best innovators and inventors have a working class way of looking at the world.

Let us take something that isn't directly in Silicon Valley's ballpark. Tiny Houses.

All the non-cosmetic innovations I've seen in Tiny Houses have been created by working class people.

The majority of Tiny Houses are created by young aspirational middle class or those who want to retire without worrying. It is especially gratifying to see many young women picking up the hammer to forge something for themselves. I saw one who built a VOC-free house recently and that is impressive if you know anything about building.

Despite this, the only major differences between most builds are cosmetic. People really are afraid of being different despite being adventurous enough to live differently to most. There is a finite amount of adventurousness people have and it is easily exhausted.

The names in italics are Youtube channels if you wanted to inspect what I'm talking about.

Esket Tiny House is built by a carpenter, and he has built a magnificent curved roof when everybody else went with a standard gable roof. If you're perceptive you'll notice that a Tiny House only has 13 ft 6 inches to play with. So logically changing the roof shape would hugely improve the living space in the loft area. Yet they choose not to change it.

Tiny House Customs is another working class Joe (framer). He has cleverly hidden the trailer's wheels and tow bars so it doesn't even appear to be a potentially mobile structure.

Life in a Box (electrician) has introduced the concept of a rain screen, despite being in Arizona! Everybody's builds (in the more rainy regions) are going to have the siding rot off in five years! This is smart.

The Not So Tiny House (power plant operator but definitely working class) has very cleverly hidden his trailer using a faux rock skirt. It now just looks like a regular house on a foundation. It is a rather brilliant solution.

The reason why I mention these is because there are very few working class people building Tiny Houses. I think that is a shame. However the thing to notice here, is that when they do build, they build them very differently to the cookie-cutter approach most middle class people do.

In retrospect, all their innovations are extremely obvious. That is quite curious.

I think this says something pretty profound. There is something about being middle class that could damage your ability to integrate innovations into real life. I realize this is anecdotal but in retrospect I have the feeling I see this pattern everywhere in life.

One explanation could be that: once your comfort increases, your comfort 'zone' decreases. I think this could be a powerful explanation for why so few Silicon Valley companies are truly inventive despite being a Mecca for all kinds of talent and enterprise.

As Peter Thiel points out: all kinds of clever young minds go to Harvard, and despite that they keep electing to join industries just as bubbles are bursting. That is not an accident, it is culture.

tldr; When you think of diversity, maybe think of the working class also. Maybe they have something to add nobody else does.

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