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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#161

Post by ptero »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #118
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

That would have lot of interesting consequences. The big question is what happens to siberian oil. What happens if western russia gets politically split off from siberia and can't be a petrol state anymore? Who gets the nukes? Can they even keep track of the nukes? Siberia is enormous and closer to china. An oil rich china sounds scary.

IF the breakup happens (and I personally think this is very unlikely) in the near term it will likely be contracted to oil major that gives highest bribes. Which should be a minor change to the outside world. My 2c.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#162

Post by Fiahil »

mrunkel wrote: post #121
EGreg wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?

When was the last time the US invaded and occupied land on its own?

2003, if I recall correctly ?

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#163

Post by nemo44x »

api wrote: post #73
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

Owning the reserve currency of the world matters.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#164

Post by HidyBush »

jcfrei wrote: post #45
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

> Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case.

Can anybody confirm this? I haven't seen any state official talking about getting Königsberg or Karelia back. Where has this positioning been hinted? I might have missed something.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#165

Post by fsflover »

mrunkel wrote: post #121
EGreg wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?

When was the last time the US invaded and occupied land on its own?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Invasions_by_the_Unit...

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#166

Post by EGreg »

mrunkel wrote: post #121
EGreg wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?

When was the last time the US invaded and occupied land on its own?

Iraq had a “coalition of the willing” but that was mostly a joke.

One million excess deaths in Iraq as a result. We removed the Baathists and put Shiites in charge instead. Baathists joined up with ISIS and gave them American tanks and humvees, which then spilled violence over into Syria, and other regions.

Invading and occupying was actually better than invading and leaving a failed state like Libya. There, ISIS and Boko Haram were able to establish strongholds and millions still live under violent gangs. At least we stabilized Iraq somewhat — until we also left abruptly.

The last time we occupied land with our army was 2 months ago, when we withdrew from Afghanistan (also extremely abruptly).

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#167

Post by toyg »

tada131 wrote: post #151
unfocussed_mike wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are already using 100% of the forces they originally lined up on the Ukraine border. This appears to be something like 75% of their total operational power, with obvious, serious problems, like relying on civilian GPS, being evidently wholly unprepared for the mud, the fact that there's no comms chain back so they rely on Ukrainian comms networks staying up, the lack of a supply chain, the fact that the domestic…

What generals?

The Russians confirmed the death of air-force general Andrei Sukhovetsky. The Ukrainians claim to also have killed army major general Vitaly Gerasimov.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#168

Post by JumpCrisscross »

EGreg wrote: post #146
HWR_14 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When is the last time the US annexed land or tried to?

Hawaii? Philippines / Guam / etc? Guantanamo? Panama canal? But I see Russia invading and occupying, not annexing (unless you mean stationing troops in the “independent” regions). They specifically disavow annexing unless the government refuses to negotiate and sign a peace agreement. They already did this exact playbook in the Russo-Georgian war, down to defending the two breakaway republics, the provocations, the “…

> I see Russia invading and occupying, not annexing

Crimea was unambiguously annexed in 2014 [1]. The U.S. hasn’t annexed territory since WWII (the Marshall Islands) or WWI (the Virgin Islands and Kingman Reef).

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_...

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#169

Post by unfocussed_mike »

jhoechtl wrote: post #139
unfocussed_mike wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are already using 100% of the forces they originally lined up on the Ukraine border. This appears to be something like 75% of their total operational power, with obvious, serious problems, like relying on civilian GPS, being evidently wholly unprepared for the mud, the fact that there's no comms chain back so they rely on Ukrainian comms networks staying up, the lack of a supply chain, the fact that the domestic…

> serious problems, like relying on civilian GPS So their _own_ GPS-system Glonass, not the US GPS.

They appear to be using civilian equipment from all over. And unsecured civilian radio, too.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#170

Post by tada131 »

inglor_cz wrote: post #68
thiagoharry wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

They are using the fraction of their power that they are capable of supporting and supplying, and that is not needed to guard their long borders and coast. Five million reservists called up into barracks are useless if you cannot transport them into the theater and keep them supplied.

We are using our aviation too accurate for conventional war. As result, we've lost some (2..4) of our decent aircrafts. What supply chains do we need to use more (not ~15) bombers on higher altitudes, e.g. sacrificing precision for being protected from almost-dead Ukrainian ADS ("Buk"s or Stingers, maybe some S-300 near Kyiv)?
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