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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#161

Post by glogla »

oblio wrote: post #119
simonh wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2009 Ukraine was under the control of Yanukovych, a Russian stooge installed through repression and rigged elections. He was Putin’s pawn and his posturing against NATO or Romania can hardly be used as criticism of the current Ukrainian government or the will of the Ukrainian people. You’re implying that Ukraine didn’t try to make any friends before the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea. In fact it was Ukraines impr…

It doesn't matter. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, etc. turned around in 1991. Ukraine didn't. Its people didn't want it. Downvote all you want, that's just fact.

The downvotes are because your opinions are despicable, not because it isn't literally true that Ukraine stance changed in the last decades.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#162

Post by camhart »

awb wrote: post #136
throwaway5752 wrote: post #2

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con... People are minimizing this, based on the word "consultation". Don't be fooled, this is grave news, even though it is not Article 5. Article 5 invocation under these circumstances have substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange.

> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. To what end? If Russia wants more territory they presumably care about the future. Why conquer all this territory just to blow up the world? Sounds like a waste of time. The scariest situation is one nuke. How do you respond? One nuke back or two? Then things escalate quickly. But I don’t see either country launching their full nuke arsenal unprovoked with thei…

> But I don’t see either country launching their full nuke arsenal unprovoked with their homeland not under any immediate danger. That’s just a death wish. And at that point there’s no one left to brag to about how great your country is.

"I won" regardless of having someone to brag to, is still a motivating force I fear.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#163

Post by hef19898 »

pyuser583 wrote: post #135
int_19h wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All conflicts start as "local". What we know today as WW2 was originally reported as the German-Polish war, for example.

Didn’t the British get involved the second Germany invaded Poland?

France as well. Poland was never a intended to stay local by the Nazis, it was the beginning. Not that France and Britain did a lot between the invasions of Poland and the low countries / France so.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#164

Post by Cthulhu_ »

kalessin wrote: post #157
nomercy400 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

It is important to note that the gas exported to China and Europe are exported from different fields, and are not connected with each other. As it stands right now, Russia cannot export the gas it produces for Europe to China.

Yes it can, it just takes longer to put it in ships or trains. Transport by ship from where NordStream would leave the land to China is becoming feasible now that the north pole is melting, and Russia is really interested in that. A good, seemingly unbiased video on the subject is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#165

Post by csomar »

ckastner wrote: post #36
throwaway5752 wrote: post #2

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con... People are minimizing this, based on the word "consultation". Don't be fooled, this is grave news, even though it is not Article 5. Article 5 invocation under these circumstances have substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange.

> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

This keeps getting repeated but both parties having nuclear weapons means a nuclear exchange is possible. You just need one crazy party.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#166

Post by MattGaiser »

praptak wrote: post #152
smsm42 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not condemning, the problem is just condemning and not taking the next step, or making it so weak it actually emboldens tbe agressor, who thinks "oh, that's all they got? Wasn't too bad, I guess I'll just keep on"

This is the biggest problem. I don't believe the sanctions imposed on Russia for the previous acts of aggression reached the level which Putin had already calculated into his plans.

I was really surprised at how lightweight the first wave of sanction was. They sanctioned some Russian politicians who were proud of it and the invaded areas only.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#167

Post by MattGaiser »

mellavora wrote: post #160
tobylane wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia cares in the short and medium term, while their gas setup is nearer to and pointed towards Europe.

And in the short and medium turn, Europe cannot get to renewables. Re-doing an continent's energy grid takes time. Also, remember that many water heaters and house heating systems run on gas. Switching these to electric will also take time.

One immediate action would be to cancel closing the nuclear plants.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#168

Post by awb »

EiZei wrote: post #62
agilob wrote: post #46

ok, so ELI15, what is Article 4 and Article 5?

Article 5 in this context means WW3

Except it’s just Russia (and Russian puppet state Belarus) vs. NATO.

I don’t see why China would jump in over Russia’s European adventures. If they do then yeah that drags in all of Asia (and maybe Africa due to large Chinese and European influence).

I guess South and Central America could escape it though.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#169

Post by pyuser583 »

misja111 wrote: post #99
gambiting wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

> And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia You are assuming here that Russia would be willing to cause a World War by attacking those American soldiers. > as a Pole the risk of actually being involved in military operations is making me extremely uncomfortable right now. But the alternative, to let Russia have Ukraine, will become very uncomfortable in…

You’re assuming killing those troops would cause a world war. The US might just say, hey we’re not going to sacrifice more folks over this.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#170

Post by travisgriggs »

Sometimes, compromise and diplomacy are a wonderful thing. But sometimes, there is no real compromise and the can just gets kicked down the road with what feels like compromise but really is just festering. I’ve seen many a historian posit that the 3/5 compromise was a compromise that ultimately germinated the civil war. They kicked the can down the road til its very rotten contents spilled over.

Part of me wonders if we’re not approaching that moment with Russia on the world stage. This sense of aggravation has been going on since Stalin, and while the 90s were a nice respite, it honestly just begins to feel like there is no win win compromise between Russia and the western world.

Maybe this is just the heat of the moment talking, and this’ll just be another uncomfortable “border skirmish” in a year from now. Anxiously frustrated and angry.

Some of my favorite programmer friends are ex pat Russians. They have great culture, art, science.

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