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'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#151

Post by sixothree »

AustinDev wrote: post #15
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

>There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a fortified compound in order to do so. The issue here is you'd need a lot more land because any asphalt near a temp sensor is going to give you bad data.

> The issue here is you'd need a lot more land because any asphalt near a temp sensor is going to give you bad data.

Ah yes. The way to measure temperature in the city is to move the thermometers outside of the city. Makes perfect sense.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#152

Post by danny_codes »

alaudet wrote: post #41
thimabi wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle, even if you try to regulate it away it pops up in offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. The ease with which polymarket can be manipulated is infinite because there are so many different random things you can bet on. It's a sign of our times and I don't think there is much that can be done about it by anyone.

Making gambling illegal except in controlled places reduces the amount of people gambling.

The existence of illegal gambling is far less a problem than the issue of legal gambling from your phone.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#153

Post by jandrewrogers »

dlenski wrote: post #42
hrimfaxi wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, there are plenty of negative externalities that this type of gambling brings that are much worse, but at least in this case it does appear that authorities are investigating. At the very least I would expect some law to be broken if interfering with official weather data collection at an active airport.

I agree, but the fact that authorities even have to spend time investigating is a massive negative externality. A few years years ago, there was no conceivable profit motive for interfering with weather sensors on public property. Now there is one.

> A few years years ago, there was no conceivable profit motive for interfering with weather sensors on public property.

I have bad news for you. The manipulation of weather sensors for profit has a history that long pre-dates prediction markets. You just weren't paying attention until now.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#156

Post by Groxx »

jjice wrote: post #131
Groxx wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's quite a lot of ways to interpret this question... but for that day's daily bet: > A temperature of 18C was seen as a 99.6pc probability before the temperature spiked later in the day. 99.6% of them didn't take the insane bet. And at least one of those 0.4% (by value? count? idk) decided to cheat.

> 99.6% of them didn't take the insane bet. I don't think the actual bet was insane, but the concept of betting on the weather is insane.

People bet on anything and everything, and the less controllable the better, afaict. "I'll bet you $5 that snail will eat the cucumber before the broccoli" - > "fuck yes, make it $20" is 100% a thing I could see happening. Weather is significantly easier to do every day though, unless you know a snail farmer with a twitch stream (if so, hook me up!).

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#157

Post by gorjusborg »

slackfan wrote: post #135
samrus wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we used to be a high trust society where degenrate gamblers wouldnt mess with scientific equipment to rip each other off

Counterpoint, why are we measuring temperature on what is basically a giant radiator?

Counter-counterpoint, why are people wagering on an airport thermometer measurement?

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#158

Post by thrance »

aeternum wrote: post #143
krunck wrote: post #94

Quite literally EVERYTHING around us is now subject to possible manipulation by these idiots if they think they can profit. Even the US Government has executive and legislative officials profiting from secret information they know from doing their duties. I wonder when someone who does cloud seeding will place a bet about rain at some unlikely time and place. Or the next large forest fire.

And as a result we should gain stronger epistemology. How many cities base their official temperature readings on just a few sensors rather than a widespread network? Sure you might argue, maybe this was an issue with Polymarket choosing a weak source rather than the gov, but is that really true? If you question measurements like this you quickly get labeled an climate denier. IMO this is good for the world, temp mea…

You completely missed the issue. Météo-France already has tens of thousands of stations across the country, they're very obviously not basing their entire models off of one sensor in Paris CDG.

The degenerate idiots from Polymarket bet on this particular sensor. There's no law preventing people from betting on single sensors. And we can't make laws preventing people from acting on the world in all the diverse ways that can be exploited to cheat in prediction market.

We should just blanket ban this negative-value industry. We don't want people betting on forest fires and then starting them.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#159

Post by fwip »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #90
dlenski wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. Quite likely it has already happened. There's been an enormous amount of betting on various military strikes by the Trump administration, much of which looks like insider trading. Almost certainly there have been insiders with money on the line who were financially motivated to launch lethal attacks, which they might have otherwise paused or delayed.

Why almost certainly? It's much more effective to make the decision first and the bet second.

The payout is much higher if you make an unlikely thing happen. "Unlikely things" in politics & warfare are probably highly correlated with irrational or irresponsible decisions.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#160

Post by MattGaiser »

ortusdux wrote: post #57
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Usually the TOS of these betting markets prohibits tampering. IIRC, someone bet on a streaker at the super bowl, did the streaking themselves, made 6-figures on the bet, bragged about it publicly, and the market negated the bet and recovered the money.

So if he had paid someone to streak he would have gotten away with it though.

We are only seeing the very dumb here.

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