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'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#41

Post by alaudet »

thimabi wrote: post #10
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle, even if you try to regulate it away it pops up in offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. The ease with which polymarket can be manipulated is infinite because there are so many different random things you can bet on. It's a sign of our times and I don't think there is much that can be done about it by anyone.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#42

Post by dlenski »

hrimfaxi wrote: post #19
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

I mean, there are plenty of negative externalities that this type of gambling brings that are much worse, but at least in this case it does appear that authorities are investigating. At the very least I would expect some law to be broken if interfering with official weather data collection at an active airport.

I agree, but the fact that authorities even have to spend time investigating is a massive negative externality.

A few years years ago, there was no conceivable profit motive for interfering with weather sensors on public property. Now there is one.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#43

Post by behringer »

ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

You could just sue, but usually gambling is already illegal in most jurisdictions unless licensed in the location.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#44

Post by lostlogin »

echelon wrote: post #34
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

Not sure that he has done wonders for Tesla sales over the last few years, and he collected enemies quicker than most.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#45

Post by andy81 »

logicchains wrote: post #23
ctime wrote: post #7

Between this and crypto cryptocurrencies (which obviously can be used to make bets) I don’t know which is more destructive to society

How is it even remotely as destructive as casinos, where the odds are always against you? From a probability perspective Polymarket is much more fair, as you actually have positive expected value if you have an information advantage.

Because Polymarket creates an incentive to change the real-world result.

If you create a bet on {person} getting assassinated by {date}, you greatly increase the chances of somebody on the "Yes" side thumbing the scales.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#46

Post by dlenski »

echelon wrote: post #34
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

> Just wait until they start killing people to win bets.

Quite likely it has already happened.

There's been an enormous amount of betting on various military strikes by the Trump administration, much of which looks like insider trading.

Almost certainly there have been insiders with money on the line who were financially motivated to launch lethal attacks, which they might have otherwise paused or delayed.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#47

Post by logicchains »

knappe wrote: post #39
logicchains wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The article articulated this enough, I thought but I guess not. They're interfering with officially gathered data, used to forecast the weather. And they're not just gambling. They're also gaming the system to make money on it. This goes far beyond 'just gambling'.

>They're interfering with officially gathered data, used to forecast the weather.

If that's illegal they should be prosecuted for that. Luxury goods create incentive for theft, but nobody suggests luxury goods stores should be banned to reduce the amount of theft.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#48

Post by cindyllm »

andy81 wrote: post #45
logicchains wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it even remotely as destructive as casinos, where the odds are always against you? From a probability perspective Polymarket is much more fair, as you actually have positive expected value if you have an information advantage.

Because Polymarket creates an incentive to change the real-world result. If you create a bet on {person} getting assassinated by {date}, you greatly increase the chances of somebody on the "Yes" side thumbing the scales.

[dead]

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#49

Post by standardly »

logicchains wrote: post #14
thimabi wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

[flagged]

I recommend thinking about the issue for yourself. It's not hard to see why prediction markets are subject to abuse. Market regulation has little to do with morality or "moral rights". Would I be correct in assuming you're an Ayn Rand fan?
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