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'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#131

Post by jjice »

Groxx wrote: post #6
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

There's quite a lot of ways to interpret this question... but for that day's daily bet: > A temperature of 18C was seen as a 99.6pc probability before the temperature spiked later in the day. 99.6% of them didn't take the insane bet. And at least one of those 0.4% (by value? count? idk) decided to cheat.

> 99.6% of them didn't take the insane bet.

I don't think the actual bet was insane, but the concept of betting on the weather is insane.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#133

Post by pavl- »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #111
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

This is an existing problem with physical world sensing. Some data models are already heavily polluted by people manipulating observations for various purposes. Most people who rely on those measurements are just collateral damage. Prediction markets provide yet another incentive. It is far more difficult to reliably get at "ground truth" than I think people imagine. Unlike computing systems, the physical world is a…

"Some data models are already heavily polluted by people manipulating observations for various purposes"

Example of this?

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#134

Post by dessimus »

Analemma_ wrote: post #92
j-bos wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why are they only using one sensor?

Why didn't you put two locks on your door? Clearly you deserved to get burgled if you only used one. Building Byzantine fault tolerance into absolutely everything is expensive, and makes everything we do and buy more expensive. It would be better and cheaper to rely on social trust, if that's possible-- and it was possible before these gambling sites. Prediction markets are burning social trust as fuel to make profit…

>Why didn't you put two locks on your door? Clearly you deserved to get burgled if you only used one.

I can reasonably test that the bolt is in a locked position every time I close the door and turn handle on the lock. But a single remote sensor could have malfunctioned or simply be out of calibration a few degrees.

If the actual temperature at the airport is important to any set of users enough so that the difference between it being 18 or 22 deg C is relevant, one should expect that there be at least 3 sensors (much like clocks) and assuming variances between the 3 sensors are within tolerance an average of the 3 temperatures is taken.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#135

Post by slackfan »

samrus wrote: post #87
j-bos wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why are they only using one sensor?

Because we used to be a high trust society where degenrate gamblers wouldnt mess with scientific equipment to rip each other off

Counterpoint, why are we measuring temperature on what is basically a giant radiator?

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#136

Post by singingtoday »

anonymars wrote: post #80
toenail wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fiat money is obviously more destructive, but you'd have to do some basic research to figure that out.

Here's a thought experiment for you: if "fiat currency=bad" and "hard money=good", why did the world collectively switch? Where are all the prosperous societies that held the line?

There is an answer the crypto enthusiasts have to this, but since I'm not one of them I wouldn't do the argument justice.

The short version is, it's about control and power.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#137

Post by dymk »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #111
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

This is an existing problem with physical world sensing. Some data models are already heavily polluted by people manipulating observations for various purposes. Most people who rely on those measurements are just collateral damage. Prediction markets provide yet another incentive. It is far more difficult to reliably get at "ground truth" than I think people imagine. Unlike computing systems, the physical world is a…

Manipulation of datasets is something that already existed, yes. But what betting markets do is create more incentives to screw with the real world.

You're right that this isn't a technical problem, it's a social one. This is why most sports leagues simply banned betting... until recently, now that gambling companies have bought their way in. The players always end up manipulating games.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#139

Post by dymk »

slackfan wrote: post #135
samrus wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we used to be a high trust society where degenrate gamblers wouldnt mess with scientific equipment to rip each other off

Counterpoint, why are we measuring temperature on what is basically a giant radiator?

Because that wasn't what caused the problem? The reason it didn't work was some asshole intentionally tampered with the equipment, not because of where it was.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#140

Post by pavl- »

samrus wrote: post #87
j-bos wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why are they only using one sensor?

Because we used to be a high trust society where degenrate gamblers wouldnt mess with scientific equipment to rip each other off

lol, the OP is such a classic HN take. "Why doesn't society simply absorb a negative externality created by gambling and add high cost redundancy layers that are otherwise useless" - Not every problem is technical.
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