71–80 of 270 posts
Reminds me of when I made about $40k finding a source that had CO2 data in close to real time when other people were tracking one about 12 hours delayed See https://misinfounderload.substack.com/p/tales-from-predictio...
> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…
>There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a fortified compound in order to do so. The issue here is you'd need a lot more land because any asphalt near a temp sensor is going to give you bad data.
Why is Polymarket legal? I just don't understand.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.
In a sense, that's already happened. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kalshi-sued-over-o... and https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-... > Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces.
A depressing thought: it will only tip in favor of common good when the probability of something that we today consider “normal” becomes so small that betting on that finally becomes profitable to insiders with influence. Imagine that world…
[0] No, I’m not going to change my writing style because it is considered a “tell” of LLM use.
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I agree, but the fact that authorities even have to spend time investigating is a massive negative externality. A few years years ago, there was no conceivable profit motive for interfering with weather sensors on public property. Now there is one.
This is the definitive argument for me against prediction markets. It creates incentives to do really dumb shit.
Between this and crypto cryptocurrencies (which obviously can be used to make bets) I don’t know which is more destructive to society
How is it even remotely as destructive as casinos, where the odds are always against you? From a probability perspective Polymarket is much more fair, as you actually have positive expected value if you have an information advantage.
> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…
Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.
Between this and crypto cryptocurrencies (which obviously can be used to make bets) I don’t know which is more destructive to society
Fiat money is obviously more destructive, but you'd have to do some basic research to figure that out.