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Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

theguardian.com

141–150 of 370 posts

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#141
post #82

I've had a rough time with the last two EVs I've owned. I bought a Honda e in 2020 because of its retro-future charm, but ended up being disappointed by several things: - the range was miserable - the software quality was bad - no OTA updates ever (despite Honda's promises) - slow charging - poor public charging infrastructure in Germany I should have known that a 35 kW battery wouldn't deliver great range or chargin…

> poor public charging infrastructure in Germany

Dunno, had a trip through it last year, there are more than enough chargers. Some of them were literally free.

I have 70kWh battery though. Also, I paid much less than 40k for my chinese SUV. The software is buggy though, a random reboot on motorway doesn't feel nice.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#142
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought Totyota is still one of the EV leaders. Alongside Kia and Hyundai?

Toyota barely makes any fully EV cars, and their bZ series hasn't been very great. They have a number of hybrids, but even those are often based on dated battery technology. They're still selling new cars with NiMH batteries. They have some incredibly reliable hybrid drivetrains, but have weak EVs and ancient battery technology throughout.

Hormuz might change their mind

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, you’re wrong. There’s not much else to say bout that. That's an opinion, not a fact. > Because it prices the vehicles below points where others can compete. This is way too expensive for something like that to last. The rush to the bottom is already killing so many chinese automakers locally. The idea that they can sustain such a money bleed globally is hard to believe.

> That's an opinion, not a fact. It’s not an opinion. You’re welcome to go read China’s own self-published strategic plans on this or a litany of news and policy journals discussing this. > This is way too expensive for something like that to last. How can you claim it’s too expensive if you’re claiming you don’t even buy that it’s happening?? > The rush to the bottom is already killing so many chinese automakers loc…

There are plenty of countries that lack domestic automotive production that are very OK using Chinese EVs. Nepal for example, is all in in Chinese EVs now since it’s people couldn’t afford much gas or ICEs before, and with some hydro investments (also aided by China), they can now better afford to buy (cheap Chinese EVs) and drive cars (cheap hydro). There are a hundred nepals out there that the western and Japanese countries aren’t going after.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is also retreating from the being a car company, at least they don't see being a company that sells electric cars to consumers being a great business to be in long term.

There are a couple good reasons for Tesla to do that, which don't apply to most carmakers. One is that their stock is priced for extreme growth, so they need to be in businesses that can justify that. Cars are not that kind of business. They were for a while when Tesla was much smaller and the only decent EV maker, but not anymore. For any carmaker with a typical carmaker PE, cars can be a fine business. Tesla's othe…

It's priced for extreme growth cause that's the way the CEO and board want it to be. They don't want to make cars and sell them to consumers for a small profit cause that's not an extreme growth opportunity so the focus is elsewhere.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#145
post #82

I've had a rough time with the last two EVs I've owned. I bought a Honda e in 2020 because of its retro-future charm, but ended up being disappointed by several things: - the range was miserable - the software quality was bad - no OTA updates ever (despite Honda's promises) - slow charging - poor public charging infrastructure in Germany I should have known that a 35 kW battery wouldn't deliver great range or chargin…

The Mini Cooper E, the one adapted from the i3 platform from 2013 but without the nice parts of the i3 such as the light carbon fiber monocoque, the aluminium frame, and the rear wheel engine and rear wheel drive?

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#146

Weird headline: Japanese carmakers are doing the same error, while Tesla (an American company) is the one of the leading electric carmakers... I'd just replace it with Legacy Carmakers (e.g. Ford, GM, Toyota and so on).

Tesla is also retreating from the being a car company, at least they don't see being a company that sells electric cars to consumers being a great business to be in long term.

It is a great business to be in, they just aren't run by a sane person who is good at business. If it weren't for massive conflicts of interest their CEO would have been fired years ago.

They're getting leapfrogged by Chinese companies despite being extremely early to the Chinese market along with a factory in China.

They've somehow squandered their technology lead despite being profitable and scaled unlike some of the companies leapfrogging them.

They botched the Cybertruck so badly. Imagine an American company failing to make a popular pickup truck. They could have been selling pickup trucks at F-150-like volume and profitability.

Their brand image of tech futurism is outdated and they're squandering the most profitable segments of the automotive market. Just look at stuff that's succeeding and pulling in big money like the Bronco and Toyota TRD lineup.

Tesla is retreating to robots because their CEO gets bored of running scaled companies that aren't startups, and they're also doing a whole bunch of financial manipulation to prevent Tesla stock from crashing due to its fundamentals. Without a future moonshot business, the valuation of the stock makes no sense, and would naturally decline to that of a normal automobile company otherwise. That event would destroy Elon's net worth and probably make him default on a bunch of personal loans. By combining other moonshots like xAI and robotics, it lessens the impact of the reality of the automotive business: a profitable but generally low-margin high-maturity type of business.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#147

no one is willing to admit the EV tech isn't just there yet to fully replace gas powered cars?

I only hear people in certain countries say this. Meanwhile many countries with rough terrain and long roads are already all in on EVs.

Which ones?

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#148
post #120
post #91

But what about Hydrogen? Many ICE companies would be better to focus on that. It would allow legacy vehicles to stay on the road, and fix the range anxiety in places like the US which is way bigger than all of the EU and bigger than the populated parts of China.

Hydrogen ICE is not a viable technology for many reasons. Combustion temperatures would require exotic alloys to manage and the power density is quite low. I remember BMW made a H2 ice version of one of their large V12s and it made like 125hp...

It's also really hard to store. The tanks need to be made of exotic materials and withstand incredible pressures.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#149
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Porsche... Eye roll

If money wasn't an object, I'd buy one EV: the Taycan Turbo S.

Though, shitty software and no one pedal driving because Porsche drivers pilot with two pedals.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's an opinion, not a fact. It’s not an opinion. You’re welcome to go read China’s own self-published strategic plans on this or a litany of news and policy journals discussing this. > This is way too expensive for something like that to last. How can you claim it’s too expensive if you’re claiming you don’t even buy that it’s happening?? > The rush to the bottom is already killing so many chinese automakers loc…

> It’s not an opinion. You’re welcome to go read China’s own self-published strategic plans on this or a litany of news and policy journals discussing this. I didn't say they don't prop their carmaking, battery or ev industries. I said that I don't buy the argument it's bad for us. > They don’t need to sustain it really, globally they’re already poised to win which is why US, EU, Japan are going to have a lot of impo…

> I didn't say they don't prop their carmaking, battery or ev industries. I said that I don't buy the argument it's bad for us.

And I explained why it was bad for us.

> Protectionism historically only helps industries in their earliest stages when you need to kickstart them, never when they are mature.

Never is a strong word. You're assuming that the Chinese EV industry isn't still in the kickstarting stages. The goal is to, via subsidies and capability to deindustrialize other parts of the world. Through that lens you can see their actions quite clearly.

As a European you should be particularly worried if you value labor. When you say things like German and Italian economies are export dependent it begs the question: what happens when those exports to their #1/#2 export market (China) collapse, and then China - because as you said of course Germany and Italy aren't willing to tariff Chinese cars - comes in to the EU and then outcompetes German and Italian automakers too?

What does that leave you with? It leaves you with:

  China - dominating EV sales and a massive player in the auto market.

  America - protected domestic industry that's not reliant on exports, little to no competition from China
 
  Japan - serving US/EU global markets and protecting domestic industries

  Europe - Collapse of industrial capacity to make vehicles, maybe with tariffs or import controls will have workers at Chinese factories making cars (with profits and capital of course heading back to the home market). Follows the British model a bit with focus on luxury automobiles (Ferrari, Aston Martin, things like that)
I hear your point about subsidies in American and European markets and how regular people are "left with the bill", but that's mostly because regulators and those working in government are incompetent, by and large, not because there aren't actions one can take. China serves as a clear counter example. And then you could also look at other countries and steps they've taken to shore up their domestic industries or otherwise.
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