Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany • Hacker News Board

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#121

Post by nradov » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 1:39 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #6

est31 wrote: post #3

Germany is pretty well equipped with ICU beds and they've increased the capacity even further in preparation for Corona. I'm not worried about Germany really. I'm more worried about other parts of Europe like eastern europe. A Czech friend told me they have barely any respirators in the country.

If it's any comfort, the death rate is so high with ventilators (80%+, which is bad even for ventilators) that some doctors are trying to avoid using them, if possible, because they are concerned the ventilators are actually killing people. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22819580 I previously suggested that ventilators were problematic and I wasn't happy with the rush to create more of them instead of promoting…

Yes that's likely correct based on what physicians are seeing in the field. Check out the latest care protocol from Eastern Virginia Medical School.

https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/...

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#122

Post by chvid » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 1:41 PM UTC

Dahoon wrote: post #113

chvid wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the same "problem" here in Denmark; massive lockdown and overcapacity for COVID19 treatment. The current level of lockdown is unmaintainable as this virus is probably going to be here for a year or two. However it is very hard for our politicians to say: It is too expensive to save these lives - other lives are cheaper to save. In a way the media coverage has been so effective that people actually do not want t…

You clearly live in a different Denmark than I do. Maybe you read too much Ekstra Bladet. We are following the curve just as planned - not over and not under. There are no "overcapacity" and the lockdown isn't "massive" at all. Only a tiny percentage of shops are closed down and the rest isn't close to what a lot of other countries are doing. Stop spreading FUD and try to appreciate we have a system that is working g…

Thanks for the insults.

You can follow the writings of our ex pm Lars Lokke who says something similar to what I wrote.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#123

Post by rasmus1610 » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 1:50 PM UTC

bsaul wrote: post #105

evaneykelen wrote: post #103

Germany has also accepted patients from Italy, France, and The Netherlands. For the latter the university hospital in Münster is coordinating the distribution of Dutch patients who require ICU care across Germany. Great to see neighboring/close by countries cooperate in this way.

Do you have more infos on that ?? I live in france and the general message we keep hearing is that every nation is dealing with the crisis alone and that the european union project may die because of that.

In the University Hospital where I work in Germany we have two patients from Italy on ICU

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#124

Post by rasmus1610 » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 1:52 PM UTC

Cass wrote: post #38

DoreenMichele wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. The translation I saw described yellow as something like "emerging bottlenecks." There seem to be a lot of them in Bavaria, where I have relatives.

My Bavarian hospital is on there as yellow. I'm currently sitting in the empty urgent care clinic and just had a chat with the nurse from the almost empty emergency room about the fact that both the COVID-19 ward and the ICU are far from capacity. Not really sure why we're yellow, to be honest.

There are certain hospitals that are marked red with one patient or so on ICU where I know for a fact that they have more than 1 ICU...

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#125

Post by anonymouz » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 1:54 PM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #25

Would be cool to have this for NY as well. I have this nagging suspicion that the press is only showing the small number of hospitals that are overflowing, and not showing the ones that are under capacity, to stoke panic and drive clicks. Similar to the "mass graves" bullshit they wheeled out the other day. To see why it's bullshit, one has to do some basic arithmetic. Consider that if life expectancy in NY metro are…

Aside from the arguments others have already replied to, your numbers are wrong by an order of magnitude. 280K/year comes out to 767/day on average. Yesterday 777 people died of Covid, so, roughly, it seems to be doubling the death rate at the moment (not quite true, since we shouldn't compare to average, and maybe some of these people would have died now anyway, but +100% is a closer estimate than an increase by a single digit percentage). Note that the number of deaths/day are still on an increase, and without lockdown it'd have been expected to increase exponentially for a while longer.

Of course, things get even worse when the disease is left unchecked or hospitals become overwhelmed; some tows in the Bergamo province in Italy reached daily death rates that where 6 times as high as the ones from last year in the same time period.

Edit: The actual numbers for NY show a more than 2x increase so far, see here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#126

Post by nradov » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 2:05 PM UTC

bayesian_horse wrote: post #70

DanBC wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oxygen isn't necessarily harmless. https://evidence.nihr.ac.uk/alert/a-reminder-that-too-much-o...

Yes. But the problem is too much Oxygen in the blood. Which there is not, otherwise you wouldn't be thinking about extra oxygen supply...

It's not just the blood level. Breathing oxygen at a partial pressure over about 0.5 atm also gradually impairs lung function due to toxic effects.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#127

Post by alkonaut » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 2:29 PM UTC

est31 wrote: post #3

Germany is pretty well equipped with ICU beds and they've increased the capacity even further in preparation for Corona. I'm not worried about Germany really. I'm more worried about other parts of Europe like eastern europe. A Czech friend told me they have barely any respirators in the country.

I wonder why they have such extreme numbers of ICU beds. Are they reporting them differently, e.g. disaster wards that are normally not operating unless there is a disaster are counted?

Or do they really run with a tiny fraction of beds occupied, in the years between wars and pandemics? It seems a bit wasteful to have that low usage, instead of having the capability stored for a rainy day.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#128

Post by Kliment » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 2:49 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #97

toyg wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your perspective but you’re relying on anecdata, not data.

FWIW, my anecdata includes a 32 year old son with the same diagnosis who still lives with me and our diagnosis (for a congenital condition) dates to May-June 2001, nearly 19 years ago. But, yes, first-hand personal experience and anecdata are roughly synonymous, though the first one lacks the generally dismissive implications of the second.

I believe the parent poster's implication was not that your experience is invalid, but that it doesn't reliably transfer to covid patients (where the complication leading to death is fibrosis of the lungs, which incidentally explains the very high death rate of advanced stage disease, ventilator or not).

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#129

Post by zwaps » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 2:57 PM UTC

k__ wrote: post #116

zwaps wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Death rates will rise and things will get worse, but if we are lucky not dramatically so. In contrast to literally every other large European country, we did a lot of testing (compare for example CDR for France against Germany, we did ten times more tests especially early on). If you run the numbers on tests vs. infections, assuming that death rates are more accurate, you have to conclude that Italy, Spain and France…

Sure, the rate changes didn't drop constanly every day, but overall there is a downwards trend.

If you look at the case rates on the RKI tracker / GIS app, you can see that there is a weekly cycle. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823...

The peak of the last weekly cycle was April 2nd, and was the highest peak yet.

The current cycle is still in progress. Cases get added to previous days of the week retroactively. For example, there were days when it looked like case would go down, and then the next day several thousand cases were added to prior days and we went back to the weekly cycle.

We need to wait until next week to make any judgement about what is going on right now.

Up until now, there seems to be a linear increase if we ignore the cyclic component. At least for two weeks, people have been fantasizing about a decline that did not occur.

I agree that it looks like as if we'll have less cases this week. However, since it's holiday, this may be deceptive. We will not know for certain until next week, perhaps week after next week.

It's too early to celebrate. Obviously I share the hope.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#130

Post by notechback » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 5:46 PM UTC

flohofwoe wrote: post #110

bsaul wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have more infos on that ?? I live in france and the general message we keep hearing is that every nation is dealing with the crisis alone and that the european union project may die because of that.

For instance: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-treating-european-patients... I think this started without "order" from the central government, more as a result of direct action of hospitals in regions close the borders. It doesn't make sense to not help out when a hospital on one side of the border has free capacity, while another hospital a few kilometers away across the border currently has more patients than it c…

Both, local regions started but the central government also instructed to offer beds if possible and is coordinating things.