Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

> Hospital admissions and ICU admissions in NY are _way_ down.

They aren't. You're being fed fake news. If you're going to dispute this, please provide a credible source familiar with the situation on the ground.

> Nobody is running out of PPE. If you're going to dispute this, please provide a credible source familiar with the situation on the ground.

From a New York City Department of Health advisory to NYC doctors, dated March 20, 2020 [1]:

    Like other jurisdictions with general community transmission of COVID-19, New York City (NYC) is facing a critical shortage of PPE

Your source's factuality is rated as "mixed" on MBFC [2]. Given their low bar, that's basically propaganda and a quick perusal confirms that this is a media organization most fond of rhetorical tactics like emotionally loaded language and one sided coverage than they are of facts, a defining features of manipulative "fake news,".

Anyway, let's focus on the actual content of that article: the tiny video clip of the New York state governor's press conference at the bottom, shot less than 24 hours ago. When a reporter asks Cuomo about the PPE situation he says: "If you ask any hospital 'do you have enough PPE?' they will say no. It's like asking a budget director 'do you have enough revenue?' They will say no. And these hospitals are accustomed to having one month or two months stockpile. They're now looking at several days of stockpile. So they are all uncomfortable. But, we only have several days for any hospital and we do have several days for every hospital and we do have a supply that is coming in so compared to how we have been operating on this new dire circumstances, we are relatively comfortable with ventilators and PPE if, big IF, big I, big F, if the hospitalization rate stays down, which will only happen if we continue to do what we need to do." I wasn't born yesterday so you'll have to excuse me for interpreting that as press conference bullshit. Any politician worth his salt with an adequate PPE supply would have used that golden opportunity for a display of confidence, not hem and haw about budget directors. Especially if that politician is overseeing the country's financial center.

But why stop there? Before someone could even ask the next question, Melissa DeRosa (Secretary to the Governor) interrupts to add: "If I could just make one caveat, there are certain hospitals that we get anecdotal reports on that are continuing to operate under the crisis conservation guidelines on PPE, where they ask people to wear PPE for days at a time versus what the ordinary protocol is and as we're hearing those reports we are reaching out to the hospitals and making sure they have the supply so that they don't have to operate that way." Note that she doesn't say that those hospitals are operating incorrectly because there is no shortage, but that they are still in the process of supplying those hospitals. They wouldn't have to do any of this if there wasn't a shortage, although maybe that's just a little more obvious to someone with actual clinical experience.

I think you've been focusing too much on "Instagram influencers," "teary eyed nurses", and ideological conflicts. I strongly recommend limiting your information intake to official (on Google: "site:gov") or academic ("site:edu" or Google Scholar) sources.

[1] https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/han/advisory/2...

[2] https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/washington-examiner/

> the single digit percentage uptick in the overall number of deaths would most definitely not overwhelm anything at all, and given the dis-use of the emergency hospital capacity and reduced hospital and ICU admissions over the past few days, crowding in the hospitals seems like a load balancing problem to me.

Deaths lag admissions by about 15 days.

Deaths are not the only outcome, some people will be in ITU for a few weeks but not dying. They'll then be transferred to ordinary wards, and then back home or to a care home.

Reduced hospital admissions is a bad thing -- we know if someone's having a stroke they need care as soon as possible. If people are having stroke but staying away from hospital we're going to find a bunch of people dying away from hospital, or a bunch of people with long term preventable disability.

> And if anything, I would not be surprised if the official figures _overstate_ the death toll. Dr. Birx mentioned in the presser the other day that everyone who died _with_ C19 is counted as a C19 fatality, even if they did not die _of_ C19. Died of cancer but also have C19? You'll be counted as a C19 fatality.

This is such a frustrating misunderstanding of what's actually happening.

We count flu deaths the same way. But here you're not saying that we overcount flu deaths, you're looking for anything so you can say "covid-19 isn't that bad".

Because of the way covid-19 deaths are counted it's likely they're being undercounted at the moment. A certifier has to say to the best of their knowledge and experience that covid-19 was a contributory factor in the death. That's hard to do when so few people are being tested.

> Died of cancer but also have C19? You'll be counted as a C19 fatality.

Firstly, that's untrue.

See for example this page which talks about the significant under, not over, counting of covid-19 deaths. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/more-2-200-coronavirus-...

The term you need is "excess mortality", and we know that there's a lot of excess mortality at the moment. What's causing that?

70% would certainly seem to be too high. Data from the Diamond Princess showed 17.9% of infected persons never developed symptoms. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

> at that stage the outcomes with invasive ventilation are significantly better than without

You are responding to a thread that has this in it:

>> If it's any comfort, the death rate is so high with ventilators (80%+, which is bad even for ventilators)

How can both statements be true at the same time? Or is the 80%+ incorrect?

For instance: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-treating-european-patients...

I think this started without "order" from the central government, more as a result of direct action of hospitals in regions close the borders. It doesn't make sense to not help out when a hospital on one side of the border has free capacity, while another hospital a few kilometers away across the border currently has more patients than it can handle.