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Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

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Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#71

Post by bayesian_horse »

Lewton wrote: post #69
chvid wrote: post #33

Germany (like a few other countries) is in the situation "too much lockdown, too few sick". So it has to remove those lockdowns. This creates a fun political dynamic where the authorities who just spend a month scaring the population in doors now has to explain and justify why it is ok to go out and get a little sick.

Germany is NOT at a place where the lockdown is too strong. The spread is still growing exponentially and they will run into issues a few weeks from now if it continues at this rate. You can’t keep everything open and then shut everything down once you’re at capacity, as it takes three weeks for lockdown measures to show up in the hospitalization rates.

Currently the R0 in Germany has gone below 1, according to some models.

I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity.

Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because then the whole mess starts up again.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#72

Post by _ph_ »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #66
_ph_ wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can conclude only one thing from the number: by the time people are put on ventilators, their survival chance is very low. This certainly means: more ventilators won't save many people - but it may well be, that if 80% of the ventilated patients die, they saved 20% of the patients. That would assume, that the patients had died, if they had not been ventilated. Which of course depends, at which point in the…

I posted a link in my original comment to a source indicating that's not what doctors are concluding. It's also not what I'm concluding. While I'm not a doctor, my life literally depends upon me having a fairly substantial amount of knowledge about things like my lung function. In contrast, you opened with saying you don't have much medical knowledge, this just seems logical to you. I will suggest you do more reading…

I found the link you are probably referring to, but the article doesn't give any clear conclusion, other that it is known, that ventilation is a very harmful procedure. I would assume, for that reason, doctors wouldn't use ventilators until there is no other option to keep people breathing. Do you have a source for ventilators being used much earlier? If so, than this is certainly something which should be reconsidered. Is there any other treatment than ventilation, once the oxygene level in the blood drops beyond a certain level?

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#73

Post by m0zg »

akiselev wrote: post #65
m0zg wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Hart Island is being sold as "mass graves". Plus this right here clown (of "come to celebrate the Chinese new year, in spite of coronavirus" fame) said the other day there'd be _temporary burials_ in city parks: https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ct... My point is, as bad as the situation on the ground is in NY, the single digit percentage uptick in the overall number of deaths would most…

> crowding in the hospitals seems like a load balancing problem to me The problem is that once a patient is so far gone that they are on a ventilator in the ICU, even the regular movements of going over speed bumps and potholes become potentially life threatening. That's in the best of times. Given that hospitals are running out of PPE, what are the chances that they can even move an infected patient without collater…

> Given that hospitals are running out of PPE

They aren't. You're being fed fake news. Hospital admissions and ICU admissions in NY are _way_ down. Nobody is running out of PPE. If you're going to dispute this, please provide a credible source familiar with the situation on the ground. My source is governor Cuomo: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/were-ok-andrew-cuomo.... Don't bother pasting that teary eyed nurse who was "forced to work without PPE". That's fake news. Look it up. She's not a nurse, she's an Instagram "influencer".

> regular movements of going over speed bumps and potholes become potentially life threatening

Yes. Move them ahead of time, before they need intubation. Seems like people are in some kind of a stupor there. These are pretty obvious things.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#74

Post by hagemey »

Cass wrote: post #38
DoreenMichele wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. The translation I saw described yellow as something like "emerging bottlenecks." There seem to be a lot of them in Bavaria, where I have relatives.

My Bavarian hospital is on there as yellow. I'm currently sitting in the empty urgent care clinic and just had a chat with the nurse from the almost empty emergency room about the fact that both the COVID-19 ward and the ICU are far from capacity. Not really sure why we're yellow, to be honest.

Same here. Yesterday I just had a chat with my brother-in-law who runs the emergency room in a large hospital in Lower Saxony which is depicted yellow. From what he told me yesterday they are far from exceeding their capacity even giving me some numbers.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#75

Post by luckylion »

_ph_ wrote: post #53
chvid wrote: post #33

Germany (like a few other countries) is in the situation "too much lockdown, too few sick". So it has to remove those lockdowns. This creates a fun political dynamic where the authorities who just spend a month scaring the population in doors now has to explain and justify why it is ok to go out and get a little sick.

I strongly disagree with the statement, that we have "too few sick" here in Germany. With the lockdown, we managed to just keep the health system from being completely overloaded in the most infected regions. But that already at the price of postponing non-urgent medical procedures. So yes, there are a few free beds in hospitals still, but we might still need them. What is not accounted for is, that supplies (masks..…

> I strongly disagree with the statement, that we have "too few sick" here in Germany.

We want to be close to maximum capacity (but just under) though, and we're not. If "the curve" is too flat, it gets drawn out much more than necessary, and nobody should fool themselves into thinking that this can be a permanent setup. You'll need martial law if you want to confine everyone to their homes for 12+ months.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#77

Post by neuronic »

Cass wrote: post #38
DoreenMichele wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. The translation I saw described yellow as something like "emerging bottlenecks." There seem to be a lot of them in Bavaria, where I have relatives.

My Bavarian hospital is on there as yellow. I'm currently sitting in the empty urgent care clinic and just had a chat with the nurse from the almost empty emergency room about the fact that both the COVID-19 ward and the ICU are far from capacity. Not really sure why we're yellow, to be honest.

Whatever is reported to government agencies ends up in these graphs (Gesundheitsbehörde).

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#78

Post by [deleted] »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #71
Lewton wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is NOT at a place where the lockdown is too strong. The spread is still growing exponentially and they will run into issues a few weeks from now if it continues at this rate. You can’t keep everything open and then shut everything down once you’re at capacity, as it takes three weeks for lockdown measures to show up in the hospitalization rates.

Currently the R0 in Germany has gone below 1, according to some models. I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity. Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because…

[deleted]

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#79

Post by Lewton »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #71
Lewton wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is NOT at a place where the lockdown is too strong. The spread is still growing exponentially and they will run into issues a few weeks from now if it continues at this rate. You can’t keep everything open and then shut everything down once you’re at capacity, as it takes three weeks for lockdown measures to show up in the hospitalization rates.

Currently the R0 in Germany has gone below 1, according to some models. I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity. Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because…

> I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity.

Yes, sounds like Germany nailed it

> Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because then the whole mess starts up again.

Literally no way to avoid this if you want to avoid overrunning the hospitals

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#80

Post by perf1 »

est31 wrote: post #3

Germany is pretty well equipped with ICU beds and they've increased the capacity even further in preparation for Corona. I'm not worried about Germany really. I'm more worried about other parts of Europe like eastern europe. A Czech friend told me they have barely any respirators in the country.

I read somewhere that they have difficulties getting medication and might running out of sedatives in the next weeks to take out people who have to be ventilated.

Edit: found the Article: https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/corona-krise-lieferengpass...

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