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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#121

Post by Reason077 »

swader999 wrote: post #81
Tenoke wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/infected) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. On the other hand, there are also a lot of infected who only have a mild version and are never checked and recorded, which swings it in the other direction. Edit: Seems like the parent post later edited their post to mention the above.

In the hardest hit areas like Wuhan, almost everyone has been tested.

> "Wuhan, almost everyone has been tested"

Very doubtful. This is a city of 11 million people. I doubt they would have the kits or lab capacity to test even 1% of the population so far.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#122

Post by bart_spoon »

billygoat wrote: post #42

I really would like to know if smoking is implicated. Are there any smoker/nonsmoker stats anywhere?

I don't know of any studies looking specifically at smoking vs non-smoking, but its been highly speculated to be a strong risk factor. Apparently, there is a big gap in prevalence of smoking between men and women in China (close 50% for men, closer to 5% for women), which is thought to be at least partially an explanation for the differences in deaths (2/3rds of deaths were male, 1/3 were female).

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#123

Post by SomaticPirate »

sciinfo wrote: post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

Preprint paper of Iran infection estimates the number of infected around 18k. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v...)

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#124

Post by kemotep »

toptal wrote: post #87

So it’s just a coincidence that Dr. Li Wenliang, who was 34, died and he only had a 0.2% chance of dying? I find this too much of a coincidence. There is no way these numbers can be correct.

Just because the statistical probability of something happening is very low does not mean that it is physically impossible.

Flipping a coin 100 times and having the results all be heads is extremely low but still physically possible.

We can be skeptical about China's official numbers but just because something is statistically unlikely to happen and it happens does not mean immediately that there is foul play.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#125

Post by ableal »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

A few days ago I looked up the numbers for the 1918 flu - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

- world population: 1800 million

- infected: 500 million

- dead: 50 million

I did not know it had been that bad.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#126

Post by satya71 »

sciinfo wrote: post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

Could be many reasons: 1. Iran has more young people. 2. Iran does not have any monitoring program of significance 3. Young people in Iran are probably more mobile and more likely to contract it.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#127

Post by henriquemaia »

Iv wrote: post #86

Ok, time for a rant. If you looked at that table and went like "Oh, just 0.2% for me, great! No need to worry!" you are a terrible person. Even just at 0.2%, a billion people infected would result in more casualties than most recent conflicts. Eradicating diseases is possibly the most noble, the most obviously good behavior that humans can have. And here we have the opposite, people spreading it because of carelessne…

I disagree. you're not a terrible person for thinking that. There's only so much you can do, and the disease and the deaths it leaves in its wake is totally out of the reach of your intention or actions.

Worrying about something like that does not award you good person points. Actually, contributing to the general panic is far worse in terms of your real impact on what's going on. So, in this sense, you may be an actually worse person to think like you're proposing.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#128

Post by collyw »

LegitShady wrote: post #82
nik_s wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, multiple orders of magnitude...The Flu has a mortality rate of 2 per 100k [1]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm [edited - reformatted numbers to avoid localization issues]

Commas and decimals are not interchangeable

They are if you switch between Spanish and English.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#129

Post by fernandotakai »

ufo wrote: post #109
LandR wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this something you can only get if you are in at risk group? I can't go to my doctor and just get a flu shot, I don't think?

In Brazil they usually restrict the flu vaccine to just risk groups at the start of the vaccination campaign, but after that they open it up for everyone if there is still leftover stock.

you can also pay out of pocket to get the vaccine.

some private health insurances also cover it.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#130

Post by sciinfo »

macinjosh wrote: post #103
drclau wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s something off about Iran. According to Wikipedia [0], Spanish Flu killed a much higher percentage in Iran too, in comparison with the rest of the world: “The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). [...] In Iran, the mortality was very high: according to an estimate, between 902,400 and 2,431,000, or 8% to 22% of the total population died.” — source…

> There’s something off about Iran. Iran is a theocratic authoritarian regime under extreme international sanctions. Might have something to do with that. Iran also only has 0.2 hospital beds per 1k people.

It's in fact 1.5 beds per 1000 capita according to World Bank data.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS

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