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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#51

Post by eecc »

LandR wrote: post #39
eecc wrote: post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Isn't this something you can only get if you are in at risk group? I can't go to my doctor and just get a flu shot, I don't think?

In NL, I literally did just that: I walked in, asked if it was still worthwhile and the doc said “sure, we haven’t peaked on the flu yet. Want one?” I said “yeah” and we were done in 5 min max.

I guess it’s somehow got to do with living in a country with some leftovers of the Socialist hellhole it used to be... /s

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#52

Post by sciinfo »

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both.

The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though.

A 23-year-old woman soccer player: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/faadg4/a_23_ye...

A male nurse talking of 8 deaths in one night during his shift. 23-year-old female (same case?), 29- and 30-year-old males, 50-year-old female among them. (1-minute clip)

EDIT: It's just n=8, but 37.5% dying at age 30 or below is most likely drawn from a different distribution from 0.6% among the 70,000+ cases in the largest Chinese study (where the worldometers data comes from).

EDIT 2: Based on a link in a sibling comment, only 7 deaths among 20-29 yo and 18 deaths among 30-39 yo in the n=44,672 Chinese report.

https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1232779487647031302

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#53

Post by ghaff »

LandR wrote: post #39
eecc wrote: post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Isn't this something you can only get if you are in at risk group? I can't go to my doctor and just get a flu shot, I don't think?

In the US, you don't even have to go to your doctor. Pretty much any in-pharmacy clinic will give you a shot as a walk-in and it's covered 100% by most insurance.

(There's a special version you get if you're in a risk group but most people over a certain age can get the standard one.)

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#54

Post by mattkrause »

ericb wrote: post #12

Does anyone have a system for keeping on top of the latest studies and preprints? I get study links second-hand on social media sites, but I'd like to watch them closer.

Most new biology papers (in general, not just for coronavirus) are posted to bioarXiv.

Bear in mind that these are unreviewed and, given the importance (and trendiness) many of them have been rushed out. There are also strong career incentives to make sensational claims that go viral.

Definitely worth reading if you've got some relevant background, but keep your skeptical hat on too.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#56

Post by microcolonel »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #37
microcolonel wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation Unfortunately it isn't. They are trying to put people back to work and reopen trade because of the damage it is doing to their economy, and massaging the numbers is one crucial element of making that happen.

This is FUD. They are not in a vacuum. Business and travel will resume only if the situation is demonstrably resolved, or close to. They cannot afford to fake it and re-open factories and lift quarantines just for mass contamination to occur, which would be very public and screw them internationally for good. Edit: Everyone, from all impacted countries say that they are still open for business because they don't want…

Dude, they are literally releasing videos from officials telling some businesspeople that they're still open for business. Don't shoot the messenger, I know it's a dumb idea, but how surprised can you be that the CCP is trying to do something dumb after all the dumb things they've done?

Maybe instead of declaring something "FUD", which to me sounds like you're saying I'm here in bad faith, consider that I meant what I said.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#57

Post by nik_s »

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of SARS of 9.6% [2].

Nevertheless, I think all these statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt - I doubt that the numbers we are seeing are of very high quality, given the political and cultural pressures in China to underreport, the lack of test kits, corona virus deaths being attributed to other diseases, ... On the flip side, it's very likely that mild cases will never be reported, which in turn would decrease the mortality rate.

[1] https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

[edit: corrected the formula - thank you @anhner and @11thEarlOfMar for spotting the mistake]

[edit: indicated that there's also a chance of under-reporting mild cases - my edit coincided with @Tenoke's post - sorry for noticing this late @Tenoke]

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#58

Post by maxerickson »

LandR wrote: post #39
eecc wrote: post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Isn't this something you can only get if you are in at risk group? I can't go to my doctor and just get a flu shot, I don't think?

In the US you can stroll into Walmart and get a flu shot. Covered in full by most insurance and Medicare and so on.

Sometimes if the vaccine supply is impacted by something they will try to give it to at risk people first. I don't think there is any such restriction right now.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#59

Post by adventured »

sciinfo wrote: post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

Dr. Li Wenliang, who warned of Covid early on, was also only 34 years old.
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