Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths • Hacker News Board

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#81

Post by swader999 » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:26 PM UTC

Tenoke wrote: post #69

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

>The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/infected) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. On the other hand, there are also a lot of infected who only have a mild version and are never checked and recorded, which swings it in the other direction. Edit: Seems like the parent post later edited their post to mention the above.

In the hardest hit areas like Wuhan, almost everyone has been tested.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#82

Post by LegitShady » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:28 PM UTC

nik_s wrote: post #36

consp wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1% death rate in people without known complications (even 0.2% which seems pervasive in every age group) is orders of magnitude higher than for instance flu. And it spreads easily and is contagious before symptoms. Sounds like something you should be aware of.

Actually, multiple orders of magnitude...The Flu has a mortality rate of 2 per 100k [1]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm [edited - reformatted numbers to avoid localization issues]

Commas and decimals are not interchangeable

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#83

Post by joosters » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:29 PM UTC

swader999 wrote: post #81

Tenoke wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/infected) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. On the other hand, there are also a lot of infected who only have a mild version and are never checked and recorded, which swings it in the other direction. Edit: Seems like the parent post later edited their post to mention the above.

In the hardest hit areas like Wuhan, almost everyone has been tested.

Reference for that, please?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#84

Post by 11thEarlOfMar » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:30 PM UTC

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

According to Johns Hopkins data Feb 27, 2020 [0], Iran would come to:

Deaths: 26

Recovered: 49

(26 / (26 + 49)) = 34.7%

[0] https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#85

Post by railsgirls112 » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

sciinfo wrote: post #75

adventured wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dr. Li Wenliang, who warned of Covid early on, was also only 34 years old.

Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.

Good thing no younger adults in the western world are overworked and under rested ;)

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#86

Post by Iv » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

Ok, time for a rant.

If you looked at that table and went like "Oh, just 0.2% for me, great! No need to worry!" you are a terrible person.

Even just at 0.2%, a billion people infected would result in more casualties than most recent conflicts.

Eradicating diseases is possibly the most noble, the most obviously good behavior that humans can have. And here we have the opposite, people spreading it because of carelessness, because it is likely to not impact them too much, because their holiday plans are too important.

Damn.

And damned Hollywood for making people think that an epidemic has to kill a high percentage to be deadly.

I am less afraid of hearing of an Ebola outbreak than about a new strain of seasonal virus that did not have any opportunities to combine with others yet.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#87

Post by toptal » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

So it’s just a coincidence that Dr. Li Wenliang, who was 34, died and he only had a 0.2% chance of dying? I find this too much of a coincidence. There is no way these numbers can be correct.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#88

Post by swader999 » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:33 PM UTC

joosters wrote: post #83

swader999 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the hardest hit areas like Wuhan, almost everyone has been tested.

Reference for that, please?

In the who presentation, Dr Bruce Aylward mentioned this. I'll try to dig up the exact spot in the clip for you. At 1:07:44 this is discussed in depth: https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#89

Post by citilife » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:33 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #71

oefrha wrote: post #40

This page only has death rates, not number of cases for each group, so it only tells half of the story. See Table 1 of the actual paper for complete stats (source of the stats on the linked page). http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

And screencapped image: https://imgur.com/a/Ve5gT3O (posted by me)

Seems like the larger correlation in deaths is related to societal status - farmers, laborers, and retirees have much higher death rates.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#90

Post by drclau » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 2:34 PM UTC

sciinfo wrote: post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

There’s something off about Iran. According to Wikipedia [0], Spanish Flu killed a much higher percentage in Iran too, in comparison with the rest of the world:

“The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio).

[...]

In Iran, the mortality was very high: according to an estimate, between 902,400 and 2,431,000, or 8% to 22% of the total population died.” — source, Wikipedia, see [0].

I wonder if it’s genetics (immune system reacts differently?), or cultural (habits - kissing on cheeks, handshaking, large religious or non-religious gatherings) or climate, or a mix.

References: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Edit: admittedly, it’s too early to draw conclusions. It’ll take a few weeks to have more realistic numbers.