Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

reason.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–129 of 129 posts

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#121

Post by eli_gottlieb »

kapitza wrote: post #106
sdenton4 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replying to sibling comment: Appealing to "Dr" Pryor doesn't cut it, I'm afraid. Please step back and examine your line of argument here. You're making unfavored claims based on what you call 'reason' and seem unwilling to consider contrary evidence. It's fine to have a contrary opinion, but please refrain from spreading misinformation if you don't care to engage with the topic at hand.

Can you think for yourself without authorities, man? I know it's hard. This passage from the Economist article I think nicely, and unintentionally, demonstrates the level of insanity here: The result was that some 20,000 convicts who otherwise would have been sent to prison remained free. The state incarceration rate reverted to 1990s levels without an attending rise. Indeed, studies found no effect on violent crime…

I was sent to buy milk when I was seven. I had to walk several blocks to do it. I never suffered any crime, and actually, I was walking through a slightly worse neighborhood than I lived in to get to the convenience store.

Even most criminals don't attack children. Stop propagandizing in this thread.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#122

Post by rhizome »

alpsgolden wrote: post #85
rhizome wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without addressing your points, I might suggest expanding your sources of reference.

I read a wide variety of sources. I linked to Moskos because he is one of the best, he himself has numerous citations, and thus there is no reason for me to duplicate the work he has already put in.

thus there is no reason for me to duplicate the work he has already put in.

You're vouching for him, but so far there's no reason to take your word for it. I'm sorry, but I don't know you from a social media marketer, so "feed the guy some clicks and figure it out for yourself" is not a compelling argument.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#123

Post by dang »

kapitza wrote: post #88

Well, it's beyond dispute that prison populations nationwide quadrupled -- that's the whole point of "mass incarceration." I don't know of any attempts to model how many crimes these inmates would commit if on the street. Perhaps they're all choirboys, and the real crisis would be a communion epidemic. You're just walking down the street and this 6-5 jacked dude with prison pecs be like "BODY OF CHRIST, BLOOD OF CHRI…

We've banned this account for trolling.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13288223 and marked it off-topic.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#124

Post by geofft »

dang wrote: post #123
kapitza wrote: post #88

Well, it's beyond dispute that prison populations nationwide quadrupled -- that's the whole point of "mass incarceration." I don't know of any attempts to model how many crimes these inmates would commit if on the street. Perhaps they're all choirboys, and the real crisis would be a communion epidemic. You're just walking down the street and this 6-5 jacked dude with prison pecs be like "BODY OF CHRIST, BLOOD OF CHRI…

We've banned this account for trolling. We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13288223 and marked it off-topic.

Thank you. I thought I heard some sort of high-pitched whistling sound from this account's comments but wasn't quite sure.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#125

Post by edblarney »

temp wrote: post #116
edblarney wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Homicide rates - and some other crimes - are massively distorted by small, high-crime urban areas. If you pluck out the data a very small number of residents from specific hoods in Detroit, Chicago, DC etc. - the 'rest of America's' homicide rates start to look more sane. If you pluck Aboriginal crime out of Canadian crime stats, the numbers start to look like those of Northern Europe. I think this is important becau…

>If you pluck Aboriginal crime out of Canadian crime stats, the numbers start to look like those of Northern Europe. Do you believe Northern Europe does not have minorities with higher crime rates?

Of course, but not nearly in the same vein.

Inner city Detroit, and Aboriginal reserves are war zones compared to a 'minority are of Manchester'.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#126

Post by mSparks »

dang wrote: post #123
kapitza wrote: post #88

Well, it's beyond dispute that prison populations nationwide quadrupled -- that's the whole point of "mass incarceration." I don't know of any attempts to model how many crimes these inmates would commit if on the street. Perhaps they're all choirboys, and the real crisis would be a communion epidemic. You're just walking down the street and this 6-5 jacked dude with prison pecs be like "BODY OF CHRIST, BLOOD OF CHRI…

We've banned this account for trolling. We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13288223 and marked it off-topic.

please take your life somewhere else.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#127

Post by nrjdhsbsid »

omegaworks wrote: post #77
nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The link is about guns and suicide, how is that meaningful as a response to my comment? Suicide is not crime, and I didn't mention guns at all... or anything about black people. I'm not trying to silence anybody, in fact I'm saying something that mainstream media is unwilling to say. I just pointed out that recent criticism of police is by far the most likely reason crime rates are increasing in big, poor cities.

Why is that the most likely reason? I'm pointing out that irrational acts of violence - whether homicide or suicide - are made more prevalent and lethal in the presence of cheap, abundant weaponry. As a result of the 37 mass shootings that have occurred during the last administration, gun sales have hit record levels[0], and following from that, homicide rates have increased. I'm connecting the dots in this way, you…

Both ways of connecting the dots leads to the same conclusion. Crime has been increasing in large, poor cities.

These people by vast margin are not legal gun owners, so I think it's a bit premature to connect gun sales to rising crime rates.

The biggest thing on the news radar before the increased crime statistics is recent critisicm of police. Even police chiefs and mayors of many of these cities have gone on record saying that the public backlash against police was going to cause officers to be more cautious and patrol problem areas less. And a year later this is exactly what happened.

Nobody can even prove correlation=cause for anything but the evidence in this case is pretty overwhelming.

Chicago specifically, which is pointed out as one of the largest increases, had it's police chief resign and was under state and federal investigation.

What do you think this does for the public perception of the police dept? The police are fearful of causing the next Freddie Gray and the political machine doesn't want their hands anywhere near anything involving the police dept, which would surely affect the ability for them to operate effectively at least at some level

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#128

Post by omegaworks »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #127
omegaworks wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that the most likely reason? I'm pointing out that irrational acts of violence - whether homicide or suicide - are made more prevalent and lethal in the presence of cheap, abundant weaponry. As a result of the 37 mass shootings that have occurred during the last administration, gun sales have hit record levels[0], and following from that, homicide rates have increased. I'm connecting the dots in this way, you…

Both ways of connecting the dots leads to the same conclusion. Crime has been increasing in large, poor cities. These people by vast margin are not legal gun owners, so I think it's a bit premature to connect gun sales to rising crime rates. The biggest thing on the news radar before the increased crime statistics is recent critisicm of police. Even police chiefs and mayors of many of these cities have gone on record…

>These people by vast margin are not legal gun owners

Anti-gun control people keep making this argument, and fail to take into account the larger economic impact of more inaccessible guns. If they are restricted it makes them more expensive to obtain on both the legal and illegal markets. Like you said

> large, poor cities

If in fact these cities are as poor as you say - which, speaking as a resident of Chicago, is a grave distortion of our reality - then this only bolsters my argument. Guns shouldn't be affordable or accessible to the average everyday criminal. Controlling the supply allows us to control the price.

> a bit premature to connect gun sales to rising crime rates

This is directly addressed by the evidence I provided. Gun deaths are inexorably connected to gun sales.

>What do you think this does for the public perception of the police dept?

CPD is taking steps to address its image, getting rid of the poor leadership that led to this crisis is exactly what they should be doing. They're hiring people from disempowered communities, organizing outreach, building trust. CPD is busy busting its ass demonstrating its ability to operate effectively in this environment. You need to be aware that police departments originated[0] not as public defense organizations, but as union-busting, organizer-murdering hired security. Things have changed, but as recent events[1] have shown, there is still work to do. As someone with family members in the CPD AND as someone with family members of color, I am keenly aware of the tightrope both sides must walk. There is no perfect solution, but burying your head in the right-wing propaganda machine does none of us any good.

At least I'm proposing a solution. Again, you make an assertion that there is a negative impact of "recent critisicm[sic] of police" and that it has directly led to this outbreak of homicide. What criticism, specifically? By which groups, specifically? And what should be done about it, specifically?

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinkerton_(detective_agency)

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Laquan_McDonald

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#129

Post by alphabettsy »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #71
omegaworks wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could also easily make the argument that the murder rate is up due to increased weapons sales. It's all about the policy you want to sell. You're seeking to silence legitimate criticism. I'm seeking to reduce the likelihood someone will do something irrational with a loaded weapon. If you're interested in facts, there's only one side supported by evidence [0] but hey, don't let that deter your campaign. Keep cham…

The link is about guns and suicide, how is that meaningful as a response to my comment? Suicide is not crime, and I didn't mention guns at all... or anything about black people. I'm not trying to silence anybody, in fact I'm saying something that mainstream media is unwilling to say. I just pointed out that recent criticism of police is by far the most likely reason crime rates are increasing in big, poor cities.

Criticism is causing increasing crime? What kind of Blue Lives Matters bs logic is that. And have there not been repeated case she of glaring misconduct where justice was not served. And the police wanna play victim now? I'm all for increasing police training and even better pay to attract better candidates, but there are many more factors at play than criticism.
Post reply on HN