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U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

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Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#111

Post by vacri »

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

> Homicide rates are the key number to track.

It's also basically the only thing you can compare between nations as well. About ten years ago I saw a New Zealand-based study that took crimes from NZ, Australia, and the US, and rated them using the other countries' parameters. I've sadly been unable to find this study again, but it was very interesting in its results - the way crime is reported, the same event in Australia and NZ will show up about five times more than in the US. If two blokes have a fight outside a bar and it involves weapons, in the US, usually just one charge will be brought. But in Aus/NZ, the way the law works, about five charges are brought, eg from simple assault to attempted murder, and only the most severe successful charge would be used for sentencing. However, when the stats are aggregated, it's done by charges brought, not convictions (for some odd reason).

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#113

Post by fweespeech »

alpsgolden wrote: post #103
fweespeech wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% this year). These are the biggest increases in a generation. Pretending a 49% drop over 20 years is sustainable continuously with no outliers is...absurd. There is a reason these sorts of trendlines are generally drawn over 5-10 years of data, not 1 or 2. Please, just stop pushing your agenda on HN. https://…

I am not arguing about the crime changes over the past 20 years. The original article was about crime changes in the past few years, based on changes to policy in the last few years. I think the changes to crime policy implemented twenty years ago were good, and good impacts on crime. But the changes in the past few years are bad, and will result in an increase in crime. Pretending a 49% drop over 20 years is sustain…

> In my city, the homicide rate is still 5X higher than it was in 1950s. That's hundreds of people dead each year, unnecessarily. And that's after dramatic improvements in medical technology! I have a lot higher standards than a 50% decline since the 1990 peak. Let's get it back down to the 1950s level.

Yet you repeatedly, blatantly cherry pick data that is just more lies of omission like this one where you try to defend yourself. Now you move the goal posts and show complete ignorance of the way population densities have changed since the 1950s and the relationship between such density and crime rates.

> I am not arguing about the crime changes over the past 20 years. The original article was about crime changes in the past few years, based on changes to policy in the last few years. I think the changes to crime policy implemented twenty years ago were good, and good impacts on crime. But the changes in the past few years are bad, and will result in an increase in crime.

Nothing substantial has changed unless you are truly and genuinely ignorant of history. You think BLM is new?

The LA riots and numerous similar events have been caused by killing unarmed civilians by police, regardless of justification. Stop being a sheep and actually read the history of the past 50 years. BLM and other protests are pretty fucking peaceful compared to the LA riots and other events in the past with similar causes. Get back to me when these "riots" and "policy changes" involved 10+ deaths on a regular basis.

The only people claiming it is getting worse are salesman peddling fear and ignorance. Stop being so easily persuaded and actually educate yourself.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#115

Post by tyingq »

ClayFerguson wrote: post #12

If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. In my mind it is a horrible injustice to jail people for a relatively harmless substance like THC. I think in 100 years, more evolved humans will look back on the THC incarcerations the same way we now look upon the Salem Witch trials,…

>If we ever decriminalize Marijuana

I would expand that and decriminalize almost all forms of drug use (not selling/distribution). The number of people incarcerated for drug use is much higher than just those there on drug charges. A fair amount of property and public order laws are broken by drug users as well.

Getting them into a real treatment plan, with real job placement, housing assistance, etc, would stem more of that crime than throwing them in jail/prison.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#116

Post by temp »

edblarney wrote: post #104
bluedino wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years Homicides are down in the majority of cities, like NYC, Flint and Detroit. However, they are up in cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and St. Louis which are bucking the national trend of lower homicide rates.

Homicide rates - and some other crimes - are massively distorted by small, high-crime urban areas. If you pluck out the data a very small number of residents from specific hoods in Detroit, Chicago, DC etc. - the 'rest of America's' homicide rates start to look more sane. If you pluck Aboriginal crime out of Canadian crime stats, the numbers start to look like those of Northern Europe. I think this is important becau…

>If you pluck Aboriginal crime out of Canadian crime stats, the numbers start to look like those of Northern Europe.

Do you believe Northern Europe does not have minorities with higher crime rates?

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#117

Post by bjourne »

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

> Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body.

I agree with you, it is true that the homicide rate is the most fair statistic to use. But even that can be manipulated. For example, it is often hard to distinguish between arson and accidental fires. Some types of murder can appear to be suicides at first glance and vice versa. Another twist is disappearances where the body hasn't been found yet. This is why you'll never find an exact number of murders for a specific year, just an estimate.

So different reporting routines or an overworked police force could definitely impact the number of murders reported each year. For example suppose a junkie falls from a balcony and dies, if the police department have spare resources maybe they'll investigate and find out it's a murder, if they don't maybe they'll be happy to close the case as an accident.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#118

Post by zo1 »

pm90 wrote: post #86
alpsgolden wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you expand on the backing off part, though? Peter Moskos has written a lot on this. As part of his PhD, he spent two years as an actual cop in Baltimore. Now he is a professor of criminology in New York. IMO, he does a good job writing in a balanced and truthful perspective about crime. "I don't know what's going on everywhere (or even most-where), but I can tell you a bit about Baltimore. And I suspect it holds…

This is a very good comment, and it seems pretty reasonable. I don't think police are the right agents to enforce societal change though. It seems like a lot of criminals, start off rather young charged with crimes like shoplifting etc, and that record haunts them forever, by shutting off a lot of opportunities forever. I don't know what the solution is, how to prevent so many American youth who would perhaps have be…

>"I don't think police are the right agents to enforce societal change though."

Of course, agreed. However, they're most certainly there to prevent crime and stop/catch criminals. There is a whole lot of overlap between those two goals.

>"I found it rather surprising that such kinds of conditions exist in a developed country like the US; its usually something you find in less developed countries."

People aren't allowed to talk about it, frankly. Sweeping generalizations and policies that affect and stop these kinds of conditions from existing are not politically correct, and completely politically unpalatable.

E.g. If you asked me for my politically incorrect answer: It would be to increase policing ten-fold in those areas, maybe even impose martial law and curfews until the criminals have to pretty-much stop their business because it's not viable anymore. High-definition cameras on all street-corners, license-plate scanners to keep decent track of ALL vehicles going through the city and crime hot-spots. Additionally, you have to stop gang-culture from propagating through those neighborhoods. Not just that, but keep it from spreading through the whole society in general via media, especially music that glorifies it.

The unfortunate thing is that it'll probably work, we can probably pay/implement it right now, and we would very quickly start saving lives and helping people out of a crime/poverty cycle. Yet we aren't.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#119

Post by eli_gottlieb »

alpsgolden wrote: post #102
pm90 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very good comment, and it seems pretty reasonable. I don't think police are the right agents to enforce societal change though. It seems like a lot of criminals, start off rather young charged with crimes like shoplifting etc, and that record haunts them forever, by shutting off a lot of opportunities forever. I don't know what the solution is, how to prevent so many American youth who would perhaps have be…

I don't think police are the right agents to enforce societal change though. I mostly agree, but I do think the police could do more to crack down on the most brazen instances of gangs being the de facto government of various neighborhoods. It seems like a lot of criminals, start off rather young charged with crimes like shoplifting etc, and that record haunts them forever, by shutting off a lot of opportunities fore…

>There is a racial element to this. When I was traveling in Brazil, the black favellas of Brazil had a lot of similarity to the black ghettos of the U.S., and the white areas of Brazil had a lot of similarity to the white areas of the United States or of Europe.

That sounds extremely implausible and requires a whole hell of a lot of citations.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#120

Post by eli_gottlieb »

kapitza wrote: post #107
burkaman wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is much more to that article than the introduction, but in case anyone is wondering why Krauthammer doesn't cite a source for those surveys, it's because they're not real: http://www.snopes.com/language/document/school.asp , or search "Discipline List" here http://ece.dallasnews.com/archive/ A bit later in the article, Krauthammer really succinctly sums up a major flaw in his own argument: > As part of this pro…

Yes, perhaps the reason rape seems so much more common is that people in the 1940s didn't understand what rape is. I want to order a time machine and send you back to have a conversation with your great-grandparents, for whom you seem to have so little respect. Sure, the "list" isn't real. People wouldn't have been passing it around in the '70s if it hadn't reflected the actual experience of living in the '40s, which…

> Your great-grandparents are probably dead. But you can still go read a bunch of books from the amazing, wonderful, astoundingly different, and yes -- not at all perfect -- world that they lived in.

My great-grandparents were crossing the Atlantic to flee pogroms. My grandfather did similar, but lost the rest of his family who didn't leave Europe in the 1910s and 1920s when the 1930s and 1940s set in. There was this little thing while my grandmother was young called, "the Holocaust".

Fuck the violence, authoritarianism, and chauvinisms of the past. Today is far better.

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