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U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

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Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#91

Post by YokoZar »

creepydata wrote: post #59
alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

I read somewhere that one way to measure crime is surveys that ask people about crimes that they have been a victim of in the previous year. These surveys indicate that the reduction of crime isn't due to reduction in reporting or policing.

"In the past year, were you a victim of murder?"

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#92

Post by sdenton4 »

kapitza wrote: post #88

Well, it's beyond dispute that prison populations nationwide quadrupled -- that's the whole point of "mass incarceration." I don't know of any attempts to model how many crimes these inmates would commit if on the street. Perhaps they're all choirboys, and the real crisis would be a communion epidemic. You're just walking down the street and this 6-5 jacked dude with prison pecs be like "BODY OF CHRIST, BLOOD OF CHRI…

It's violent crime which has dropped. Additionally, lengths of prison sentences have greatly increased, even as crime rates dropped, especially due to war on drugs legislation and three strikes laws.

Get yourself educated, friend.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#93

Post by kapitza »

sdenton4 wrote: post #92
kapitza wrote: post #88

Well, it's beyond dispute that prison populations nationwide quadrupled -- that's the whole point of "mass incarceration." I don't know of any attempts to model how many crimes these inmates would commit if on the street. Perhaps they're all choirboys, and the real crisis would be a communion epidemic. You're just walking down the street and this 6-5 jacked dude with prison pecs be like "BODY OF CHRIST, BLOOD OF CHRI…

It's violent crime which has dropped. Additionally, lengths of prison sentences have greatly increased, even as crime rates dropped, especially due to war on drugs legislation and three strikes laws. Get yourself educated, friend.

I think the leading expert on this subject is NYT reporter Fox Butterfield:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/08/us/despite-drop-in-crime-a...

In case it isn't obvious:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism

The late Dr. Richard Pryor also did some seminal fieldwork in the area:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7DhFhzkjcA

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#94

Post by mlvljr »

alpsgolden wrote: post #85
rhizome wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without addressing your points, I might suggest expanding your sources of reference.

I read a wide variety of sources. I linked to Moskos because he is one of the best, he himself has numerous citations, and thus there is no reason for me to duplicate the work he has already put in.

and this is not StackOverflow :)

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#95

Post by sdenton4 »

kapitza wrote: post #93
sdenton4 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's violent crime which has dropped. Additionally, lengths of prison sentences have greatly increased, even as crime rates dropped, especially due to war on drugs legislation and three strikes laws. Get yourself educated, friend.

I think the leading expert on this subject is NYT reporter Fox Butterfield: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/08/us/despite-drop-in-crime-a... In case it isn't obvious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism The late Dr. Richard Pryor also did some seminal fieldwork in the area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7DhFhzkjcA

The citation in the Wikipedia article is a link to a 'TimesWatch' blog post with no backing documentation.

What you refer to is called the 'incapacitation' effect, and studies and certain accidental experiments suggest the effect isn't that big: http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/07/cr...

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#96

Post by sdenton4 »

alpsgolden wrote: post #85
rhizome wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without addressing your points, I might suggest expanding your sources of reference.

I read a wide variety of sources. I linked to Moskos because he is one of the best, he himself has numerous citations, and thus there is no reason for me to duplicate the work he has already put in.

If it's a subject you actually care about, beyond simply having your biases confirmed, reading more broadly will do you well.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#97

Post by fweespeech »

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

> And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% this year). These are the biggest increases in a generation.

Pretending a 49% drop over 20 years is sustainable continuously with no outliers is...absurd. There is a reason these sorts of trendlines are generally drawn over 5-10 years of data, not 1 or 2.

Please, just stop pushing your agenda on HN.

https://mises.org/blog/fbi-us-homicide-rate-51-year-low

> Homicide rates were considerably higher in the United States during the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, but over the past 25 years, have fallen nearly continuously:

> As Pew has reported in recent years, in fact, the American public is "unaware" that the homicide rate in the United States has fallen by 49 percent over the past twenty years. And while Pew doesn't report on it, it's also a safe bet that the public is also unaware that homicide rates have collapsed as total gun ownership in the United States has increased significantly.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#98

Post by kapitza »

sdenton4 wrote: post #95
kapitza wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the leading expert on this subject is NYT reporter Fox Butterfield: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/08/us/despite-drop-in-crime-a... In case it isn't obvious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism The late Dr. Richard Pryor also did some seminal fieldwork in the area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7DhFhzkjcA

The citation in the Wikipedia article is a link to a 'TimesWatch' blog post with no backing documentation. What you refer to is called the 'incapacitation' effect, and studies and certain accidental experiments suggest the effect isn't that big: http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/07/cr...

That wasn't an appeal to authority, just an appeal to reason.

You'll have to forgive me if I prefer to trust Dr. Pryor and common sense over the Brookings Institution's "studies and accidental experiments."

If people were fruit flies and it was possible to actually conduct controlled experiments in "social science," I'd be happy to take their results seriously. Or more to the point, if controlled experiments were possible, no one would take uncontrolled experiments seriously (not to mention studies by the Brookings Institution, with its very large axe to grind -- see the Moskos commentaries on Brookings research linked above).

But the definition of science isn't "the best we can do." When actual science isn't physically practical, "the best we can do" is not science but pseudoscience. Fortunately, there are other ways to use our brains.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#99

Post by sdenton4 »

sdenton4 wrote: post #95
kapitza wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the leading expert on this subject is NYT reporter Fox Butterfield: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/08/us/despite-drop-in-crime-a... In case it isn't obvious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism The late Dr. Richard Pryor also did some seminal fieldwork in the area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7DhFhzkjcA

The citation in the Wikipedia article is a link to a 'TimesWatch' blog post with no backing documentation. What you refer to is called the 'incapacitation' effect, and studies and certain accidental experiments suggest the effect isn't that big: http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/07/cr...

Replying to sibling comment:

Appealing to "Dr" Pryor doesn't cut it, I'm afraid. Please step back and examine your line of argument here. You're making unfavored claims based on what you call 'reason' and seem unwilling to consider contrary evidence.

It's fine to have a contrary opinion, but please refrain from spreading misinformation if you don't care to engage with the topic at hand.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#100

Post by alpsgolden »

sdenton4 wrote: post #96
alpsgolden wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a wide variety of sources. I linked to Moskos because he is one of the best, he himself has numerous citations, and thus there is no reason for me to duplicate the work he has already put in.

If it's a subject you actually care about, beyond simply having your biases confirmed, reading more broadly will do you well.

I read have read an enormous amount about this subject, from all angles and viewpoints. And I actually give a sh*t about getting the answer right, not just confirming any biases. And from reading and personal experience, I changed my mind on this subject, I used to be much more liberal in my beliefs about crime.
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