U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#81

Post by DanBC » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 11:27 PM UTC

eterm wrote: post #30

masklinn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. Decriminalisation isn't necessarily retroactive, that it's now legal or less illegal doesn't mean it was at the time of conviction. For instance despite the Labouchere Amendment ("gross indencency") having been mostly repealed in 196…

Not just Turing, people still alive are still under great injustice, because it was only Turing who received a pardon. Pardons should have been provided to everyone convicted under those laws.

They are going to be pardoned.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37711518

> Gay and bisexual men convicted of now-abolished sexual offences in England and Wales are to receive posthumous pardons, the government has announced.

> Thousands of living men convicted over consensual same-sex relationships will also be eligible for the pardon.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#82

Post by StavrosK » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 11:58 PM UTC

rhizome wrote: post #73

StavrosK wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, rather, that reducing the sentence duration will not increase crime.

I put sentence length and number of sentences in the general bucket of "incarceration volume."

I know, I'm just pointing out that the article said the opposite, ie not that longer sentences will lead to less crime, but that shorter sentences don't lead to more crime. Just picking nits.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#83

Post by emmelaich » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 12:06 AM UTC

kapitza wrote: post #50

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

Society's tolerance for crime is bizarrely irrational. There will be about 800 murders in Chicago this year -- yawn. Now imagine if 800 Chicagoans were killed by radiation leaks from a nuclear plant. "Well, you can't have electricity without plutonium. Do you want to turn everyone's lights off?" Or if 800 African-Americans were lynched Emmett Till style by KKK thugs. "Regrettable, but what are you going to do? And do…

> Society's tolerance for crime is bizarrely irrational.

   In 1940, a survey was taken of teachers asking them
   to list the five most important problems in school.
   They were: (1) talking out of turn; (2) chewing gum;
   (3) making noise; (4) running in halls; and (5) cutting
   in line.

   Fifty years later, the survey was repeated. The 1990
   list was substantially revised: (1) drug abuse;
   (2) alcohol abuse; (3) pregnancy; (4) suicide;
   (5) rape.

From http://www.aei.org/publication/defining-deviancy-up/, Charles Krauthammers corollary to Pat Moynihan's Defining Deviancy Down. http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/formans/DefiningDeviancy.htm

Still good reading and still controversial after all these years.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#84

Post by rhizome » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 12:17 AM UTC

StavrosK wrote: post #82

rhizome wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I put sentence length and number of sentences in the general bucket of "incarceration volume."

I know, I'm just pointing out that the article said the opposite, ie not that longer sentences will lead to less crime, but that shorter sentences don't lead to more crime. Just picking nits.

I think this is what the positive case of Poe's Law looks like.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#85

Post by alpsgolden » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 12:30 AM UTC

rhizome wrote: post #76

alpsgolden wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you expand on the backing off part, though? Peter Moskos has written a lot on this. As part of his PhD, he spent two years as an actual cop in Baltimore. Now he is a professor of criminology in New York. IMO, he does a good job writing in a balanced and truthful perspective about crime. "I don't know what's going on everywhere (or even most-where), but I can tell you a bit about Baltimore. And I suspect it holds…

Without addressing your points, I might suggest expanding your sources of reference.

I read a wide variety of sources. I linked to Moskos because he is one of the best, he himself has numerous citations, and thus there is no reason for me to duplicate the work he has already put in.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#86

Post by pm90 » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 12:45 AM UTC

alpsgolden wrote: post #56

parhurs wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make an intresting point about the stats. Can you expand on the backing off part, though? And the question I would ask is, "what should have been done to prevent this spiraling into a life of crime, and why wasn't it?"

Can you expand on the backing off part, though? Peter Moskos has written a lot on this. As part of his PhD, he spent two years as an actual cop in Baltimore. Now he is a professor of criminology in New York. IMO, he does a good job writing in a balanced and truthful perspective about crime. "I don't know what's going on everywhere (or even most-where), but I can tell you a bit about Baltimore. And I suspect it holds…

This is a very good comment, and it seems pretty reasonable. I don't think police are the right agents to enforce societal change though. It seems like a lot of criminals, start off rather young charged with crimes like shoplifting etc, and that record haunts them forever, by shutting off a lot of opportunities forever.

I don't know what the solution is, how to prevent so many American youth who would perhaps have been contributing members of society and culture. I found it rather surprising that such kinds of conditions exist in a developed country like the US; its usually something you find in less developed countries.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#87

Post by pm90 » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 12:55 AM UTC

emmelaich wrote: post #83

kapitza wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society's tolerance for crime is bizarrely irrational. There will be about 800 murders in Chicago this year -- yawn. Now imagine if 800 Chicagoans were killed by radiation leaks from a nuclear plant. "Well, you can't have electricity without plutonium. Do you want to turn everyone's lights off?" Or if 800 African-Americans were lynched Emmett Till style by KKK thugs. "Regrettable, but what are you going to do? And do…

> Society's tolerance for crime is bizarrely irrational. In 1940, a survey was taken of teachers asking them to list the five most important problems in school. They were: (1) talking out of turn; (2) chewing gum; (3) making noise; (4) running in halls; and (5) cutting in line. Fifty years later, the survey was repeated. The 1990 list was substantially revised: (1) drug abuse; (2) alcohol abuse; (3) pregnancy; (4) su…

While facts like that may seem rather startling at first, I don't think they necessarily reflect a degradation of society and values (the obvious implication); rather, it is a simple indication that society and culture have changed a lot, and our existing system of incentives and laws have not been able to deal with it. e.g. the natural reaction to this is to increase police presence, be stricter and harsher in punishments etc. But the root causes remain unchanged: rise of single parent homes, the failure of the war on drugs, economic inequality, changing views w.r.t marriage, children getting mature faster etc.

I guess my point is that we need to have a more holistic approach to resolving this issue than to simply be harsher with punishments and policing.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#88

Post by kapitza » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 1:06 AM UTC

Well, it's beyond dispute that prison populations nationwide quadrupled -- that's the whole point of "mass incarceration."

I don't know of any attempts to model how many crimes these inmates would commit if on the street.

Perhaps they're all choirboys, and the real crisis would be a communion epidemic. You're just walking down the street and this 6-5 jacked dude with prison pecs be like "BODY OF CHRIST, BLOOD OF CHRIST!" as he's jamming a huge ass wafer into your face... social science certainly can't refute this hypothesis...

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#89

Post by pm90 » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 1:12 AM UTC

austincheney wrote: post #24

The data indicates just how much Americans need to use drugs. Imagine how big the numbers get when you scoop in prescription drugs in addition to prohibited substances. Clearly drug use is more important to large number of Americans than risk of incarceration. Why does America have such a greater drug fascination than perhaps every other country?

I'm just throwing this out there, but it looks like European countries have invested a lot more in social programs which were rather successful. e.g. universal healthcare, unemployment benefits, better prison systems and perhaps most important, affordable education for everyone. They have not been distracted by the absurd and time consuming debates on things like gay rights, climate change, evolution etc. (I'm not saying that these issues are not important, but simply that they are a non-issue in Europe. Climate change is acknowledged as a scientific fact. So is evolution. People are not discriminated based on their sexual orientation.)

Not saying that the system doesn't have drawbacks, but it seems to have led to a higher standard of living, a more equitable distribution of wealth, although perhaps not as much economic growth as the US.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#90

Post by SomeStupidPoint » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 1:13 AM UTC

DanBC wrote: post #49

alpsgolden wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free." Millions? Millions?? Where on Earth are you getting "millions" from? And why is this completely absurd and unsubstantiated claim the top voted comment? The idea that millions, or even hundreds of thousands of people are in jail for s…

> and most of those convictions were plea-bargained down from trafficking charges. What counts as trafficking in the US? In England merely handing your friend a joint can be seen as dealing.

Trafficking can be a small amount of pot and a box of ziplock bags, but you're generally talking about 28-40g before you'll get charged (and usually more like 100g+), and the fed sentencing guidelines all involve the prefix "kilo" on the weights, so that tends to be the scale they're concerned with.