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U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

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Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#71

Post by nrjdhsbsid »

omegaworks wrote: post #70
nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[edit] sorry guys didn't realize this comment was horrible flamebait, deleted

You could also easily make the argument that the murder rate is up due to increased weapons sales. It's all about the policy you want to sell. You're seeking to silence legitimate criticism. I'm seeking to reduce the likelihood someone will do something irrational with a loaded weapon. If you're interested in facts, there's only one side supported by evidence [0] but hey, don't let that deter your campaign. Keep cham…

The link is about guns and suicide, how is that meaningful as a response to my comment? Suicide is not crime, and I didn't mention guns at all... or anything about black people.

I'm not trying to silence anybody, in fact I'm saying something that mainstream media is unwilling to say. I just pointed out that recent criticism of police is by far the most likely reason crime rates are increasing in big, poor cities.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#72

Post by sdenton4 »

iamdave wrote: post #57
kapitza wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society's tolerance for crime is bizarrely irrational. There will be about 800 murders in Chicago this year -- yawn. Now imagine if 800 Chicagoans were killed by radiation leaks from a nuclear plant. "Well, you can't have electricity without plutonium. Do you want to turn everyone's lights off?" Or if 800 African-Americans were lynched Emmett Till style by KKK thugs. "Regrettable, but what are you going to do? And do…

What's with the downvotes to this? If there's something to be debated I would have liked to read it because this comment, I don't disagree with.

There's a wide variety of explanations for the crime drop, including from increased educational attainment, overall better economic situation, and lead poisoning caused by leaded gasoline subsiding.

Attributing it solely to crackdowns in the 90's is pretty disingenuous; crime had been falling before Giuliani, and in a broad array of cities which hasn't instituted tough on crime policies.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#73

Post by rhizome »

StavrosK wrote: post #5
rhizome wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true, but the story is not that incarceration still exists, but to dispense with the argument that increased incarceration is necessary to reduce the crime rate.

Or, rather, that reducing the sentence duration will not increase crime.

I put sentence length and number of sentences in the general bucket of "incarceration volume."

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#74

Post by ohwello »

ClayFerguson wrote: post #64
masklinn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. Decriminalisation isn't necessarily retroactive, that it's now legal or less illegal doesn't mean it was at the time of conviction. For instance despite the Labouchere Amendment ("gross indencency") having been mostly repealed in 196…

I predict that when (not if, but when) the Federal Gov finally does make Marijuana fully legal, they will do whatever is required to make it retroactive. Even if it takes an amendment to the constitution specifically for this purpose it will need to be done, and will be considered minor paperwork. There will be no debate about whether it needs to be done. Who would argue against it? Perhaps only those Judges who hand…

I doubt an amendment to the Constitution will be happening any time soon, but in any case there would be no need for one here.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#75

Post by rhizome »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #67
sdenton4 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, correction. FBI data is out for 2015. Murder nationwide has gone from about 13k to about 15k. The point about small denominators stands, especially in light of a 50 year low in 2014. Is this a new murderous America or a reversion toward the mean? Only you can prevent the grievous misuse of statistics.

[edit] sorry guys didn't realize this comment was horrible flamebait, deleted

It's a direct result of police backing off due to protests.

I'm not going to post the obvious glib response, but it's threadbait to say something like this without support. "Probably" doesn't cut it, so consider this a challenge.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#76

Post by rhizome »

alpsgolden wrote: post #56
parhurs wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make an intresting point about the stats. Can you expand on the backing off part, though? And the question I would ask is, "what should have been done to prevent this spiraling into a life of crime, and why wasn't it?"

Can you expand on the backing off part, though? Peter Moskos has written a lot on this. As part of his PhD, he spent two years as an actual cop in Baltimore. Now he is a professor of criminology in New York. IMO, he does a good job writing in a balanced and truthful perspective about crime. "I don't know what's going on everywhere (or even most-where), but I can tell you a bit about Baltimore. And I suspect it holds…

Without addressing your points, I might suggest expanding your sources of reference.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#77

Post by omegaworks »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #71
omegaworks wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could also easily make the argument that the murder rate is up due to increased weapons sales. It's all about the policy you want to sell. You're seeking to silence legitimate criticism. I'm seeking to reduce the likelihood someone will do something irrational with a loaded weapon. If you're interested in facts, there's only one side supported by evidence [0] but hey, don't let that deter your campaign. Keep cham…

The link is about guns and suicide, how is that meaningful as a response to my comment? Suicide is not crime, and I didn't mention guns at all... or anything about black people. I'm not trying to silence anybody, in fact I'm saying something that mainstream media is unwilling to say. I just pointed out that recent criticism of police is by far the most likely reason crime rates are increasing in big, poor cities.

Why is that the most likely reason?

I'm pointing out that irrational acts of violence - whether homicide or suicide - are made more prevalent and lethal in the presence of cheap, abundant weaponry. As a result of the 37 mass shootings that have occurred during the last administration, gun sales have hit record levels[0], and following from that, homicide rates have increased. I'm connecting the dots in this way, you are connecting the dots in another.

You are making an assertion that there is a negative impact of "recent criticism of police" and that it has directly led to this outbreak of homicide. What criticism, specifically? By which groups, specifically? And what should be done about it, specifically?

0. https://theintercept.com/2016/06/13/election-gun-sales/

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#78

Post by rhizome »

gns24 wrote: post #68
ehnto wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be interesting to see the re-incarceration rate of those set free from charges like that. I wonder if jail time has the opposite effect of rehabilitation for many, especially considering how much harder life can be with jail time on your record, or even just the black hole in your resume that you have to explain. Not to mention that you spent the last however many years being told and treated like criminal s…

I found this article on how jail in the Netherlands is focused on giving prisoners whatever they need to go back into society and not reoffend interesting. They claim that under 10% of prisoners reoffend, compared to about 50% in England and the US: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-37904263

Rehabilitation was removed from US prison policy about 40 years ago:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Martinson

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#79

Post by DanBC »

creepydata wrote: post #59
alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

I read somewhere that one way to measure crime is surveys that ask people about crimes that they have been a victim of in the previous year. These surveys indicate that the reduction of crime isn't due to reduction in reporting or policing.

That's how England and Wales does it. The police record crimes, but these are not seen as statistically sound, and so the Office For National Statistics also does a crime survey.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/htt...

> The CSEW, formerly known as the British Crime Survey (BCS), is a face-to-face survey asking people who are resident in households in England and Wales about their experiences of a range of crimes in the past year. The survey interviews both adults and children. The survey started in 1982 (covering crime experienced in 1981) and is conducted on a continuous basis with around 35,000 adults and 3,000 children aged 10 to 15 years old interviewed each year.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#80

Post by DanBC »

kolbe wrote: post #21
chickenfries wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an extremely reductive description of the drug war, and mass incarceration. You really can't talk about either without talking about race.

What do you mean?

White people and black people commit drug crime at roughly the same rate, but black people's drug crime attracts more policing and higher sentences.
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