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U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

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Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#51

Post by parhurs »

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

You make an intresting point about the stats. Can you expand on the backing off part, though?

And the question I would ask is, "what should have been done to prevent this spiraling into a life of crime, and why wasn't it?"

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#52

Post by sdenton4 »

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

According to 2014 FBI stats related in June, 2014 was a 50 year low for the us homicide rate. Two takeaways: first, FBI data hasn't been released for 2015 yet. Second, as the denominator is getting smaller, small variance leads to bigger year on year percentage shifts.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#53

Post by sdenton4 »

sdenton4 wrote: post #52
alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

According to 2014 FBI stats related in June, 2014 was a 50 year low for the us homicide rate. Two takeaways: first, FBI data hasn't been released for 2015 yet. Second, as the denominator is getting smaller, small variance leads to bigger year on year percentage shifts.

Ah, correction. FBI data is out for 2015. Murder nationwide has gone from about 13k to about 15k. The point about small denominators stands, especially in light of a 50 year low in 2014. Is this a new murderous America or a reversion toward the mean?

Only you can prevent the grievous misuse of statistics.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#54

Post by __derek__ »

utexaspunk wrote: post #10
MichaelBurge wrote: post #7

> Drug offenders accounted for half of federal prisoners and 16 percent of state prisoners in 2015. The decrease in the federal prison population was largely due to shorter drug sentences authorized by Congress and the U.S. Sentencing Commission. And this( https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/jmd/legacy/2013/... ): > The FY 2015 Budget requests a total of $8.5 billion for federal prisons and detention And from…

Support for Israel isn't just about pandering to Jews. There are a lot of fundamentalist Christians who believe Israel's existence is necessary for Christ's return, that allying ourselves with Israel is being on God's side, etc.. I doubt it would be worth making political hay out of it if Jews were the only ones who cared.

Exactly. Just to pluck one at random, Michele Bachmann is an example.[1]

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2011-07-18/michele-b...

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#55

Post by ahartman00 »

ehnto wrote: post #17
ClayFerguson wrote: post #12

If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. In my mind it is a horrible injustice to jail people for a relatively harmless substance like THC. I think in 100 years, more evolved humans will look back on the THC incarcerations the same way we now look upon the Salem Witch trials,…

It would be interesting to see the re-incarceration rate of those set free from charges like that. I wonder if jail time has the opposite effect of rehabilitation for many, especially considering how much harder life can be with jail time on your record, or even just the black hole in your resume that you have to explain. Not to mention that you spent the last however many years being told and treated like criminal s…

I've been wondering to what extent jail functions as an echo chamber, reinforcing criminal culture.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#56

Post by alpsgolden »

parhurs wrote: post #51
alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

You make an intresting point about the stats. Can you expand on the backing off part, though? And the question I would ask is, "what should have been done to prevent this spiraling into a life of crime, and why wasn't it?"

Can you expand on the backing off part, though?

Peter Moskos has written a lot on this. As part of his PhD, he spent two years as an actual cop in Baltimore. Now he is a professor of criminology in New York. IMO, he does a good job writing in a balanced and truthful perspective about crime.

"I don't know what's going on everywhere (or even most-where), but I can tell you a bit about Baltimore. And I suspect it holds true in many cities. I looked calls for service, arrest numbers, and crimes. Most dramatic is the drop of arrests in Western District....Now there are good and not so good reasons for this drop in arrests. But leaving that why: it happened. Police were less involved, by choice and necessity, and violence skyrocketed. Just because correlation does prove causing, correlation certainly doesn't mean causation is impossible or even unlikely. I mean, what else changed in the Western except police and crime?...Cops stopped making discretionary arrests and being proactive in clearing corners and frisking subjects. Look, it's no surprise where shootings happens and who gets shot." http://www.copinthehood.com/2016/01/the-baltimore-6-effect.h...

And then read this one about Chicago: http://www.copinthehood.com/2016/11/the-best-of-times-worst-...

And a few other posts http://www.copinthehood.com/2016/02/defining-ferguson-effect... and http://www.copinthehood.com/2016/03/chicago-violence.html

And the question I would ask is, "what should have been done to prevent this spiraling into a life of crime, and why wasn't it?"

My reading is that there is a total breakdown in discipline in many of these families and communities. The kids that end up being problems are not getting discipline at home, and they're not getting it from the school (see http://www.isegoria.net/2014/12/the-monster-factory/ or http://www.anurbanteacherseducation.com/2011/02/tfa-alumnus-... )

I also think that when you have open-air drug dealing, and gangs openly controlling the streets, then that turns senior gang members into role models, and it incentivizes young teenagers to join gangs for protection. Then as part of joining, they get involved in beefs and violence. That is my take from reading various ethnographies.

The reason nothing is being done is because prevailing opinion does not agree with me. The emphasis over the past fifty years has been less discipline in schools. ( http://www.city-journal.org/html/who-killed-school-disciplin... ). There was a police crackdown in the 1990s, but it was more targeted at keeping violent people out of the nice neighborhoods, rather than completely eliminating gang violence in the ghetto neighborhoods. I think that is because the liberals see the police as suspect and problematic, and don't want to empower them, and because the conservatives don't really care about the ghetto as long as it doesn't effect them.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#57

Post by iamdave »

kapitza wrote: post #50
alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

Society's tolerance for crime is bizarrely irrational. There will be about 800 murders in Chicago this year -- yawn. Now imagine if 800 Chicagoans were killed by radiation leaks from a nuclear plant. "Well, you can't have electricity without plutonium. Do you want to turn everyone's lights off?" Or if 800 African-Americans were lynched Emmett Till style by KKK thugs. "Regrettable, but what are you going to do? And do…

What's with the downvotes to this? If there's something to be debated I would have liked to read it because this comment, I don't disagree with.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#58

Post by OliverJones »

ClayFerguson wrote: post #12

If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. In my mind it is a horrible injustice to jail people for a relatively harmless substance like THC. I think in 100 years, more evolved humans will look back on the THC incarcerations the same way we now look upon the Salem Witch trials,…

Hmmm. The Salem episode lasted seven months from the first accusations (March 1692) to the last hangings (September 1692) and the dissolution of the court appointed to try those people (October 1692).

The war on drugs is now about a century old, and going strong.

Hopefully, future people will look on both as some kind of collective self-delusion. But the comparison is otherwise unfair to Cotton Mather, Samuel Sewall, and the rest of those Puritan ghouls responsible for that episode. And I can't believe I'm defending them.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#59

Post by creepydata »

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

I read somewhere that one way to measure crime is surveys that ask people about crimes that they have been a victim of in the previous year. These surveys indicate that the reduction of crime isn't due to reduction in reporting or policing.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#60

Post by alpsgolden »

kapitza wrote: post #50
alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

Society's tolerance for crime is bizarrely irrational. There will be about 800 murders in Chicago this year -- yawn. Now imagine if 800 Chicagoans were killed by radiation leaks from a nuclear plant. "Well, you can't have electricity without plutonium. Do you want to turn everyone's lights off?" Or if 800 African-Americans were lynched Emmett Till style by KKK thugs. "Regrettable, but what are you going to do? And do…

It seems like we're due for another round of this pendulum.

I fear this too. As someone who now lives in a city that suffered enormously from the 70s crime rise, and benefited greatly from the 2000s decline in crime, the prospect of another crime wave makes me wonder if I should hold off on buying a house.

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