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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#111

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sarchertech wrote: post #107
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it treats Social Security and Medicare/aid as a liability instead of the service that they are It's a liability because the U.S. has promised to pay it. We haven't committed to a level of military spending backed by our full faith and credit. EDIT: Never mind! Apparently we can just cut social security payments.

The NATO treaty says that we have to maintain our ability to resist armed attack, so there is some minimum. And we’ve made public commitments to spend at least 2% of GDP (though that isn’t part of the treaty).

Neither of those are full faith and credit guarantees. Congress can nullify them in a way it Constitutionally cannot actual debts.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#112

Post by bunderbunder »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #43
bunderbunder wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

> when both seem instead to be stagnating What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?

They’ve claimed a big revenue run rate for this quarter. But it’s non-GAAP, so you kind of have to assume shenanigans. Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. I consider the number they came up with when they had to worry about committing perjury to be more trustworthy (because I’m a pill), so that would also indicate shenanigans. My guess is they are inflating that revenue run rate figure by booking token pre-payments from enterprise contracts now instead of spreading it over time as GAAP would mandate. And at the same time their big enterprise clients are talking about scaling back their usage.

So we’ve got a combination of signs that they’ve been inflating their revenue growth, and signs that their customers are losing their appetite for contributing to that revenue growth. I suppose it’s not a slam dunk, but it feels to me like as strong an indicator as one could hope for a private blitzscaler startup like this.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#113

Post by nixon_why69 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #93
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? I think these IPOs are going to mint tens of thousands of new millionaires or something. That, in turn, will generate massive tax windfalls for all levels of government. > other than the ability to produce more crap? This is a big "other than." (And to be clear, the jury is still out on whether AI will let us produce more in the long…

It's not a pyramid scheme, it's a reverse funnel.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#114

Post by JumpCrisscross »

throwawa1 wrote: post #104
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

I think this is the story of tech in general. In my life, I've seen 3 really big steps down for the middle class: 2001, 2008 and then covid. Basic necessities are expensive today - people point to high GDP but what I see is high prices and poverty. And Tech, we've built a dystopian surveillance state.

> Basic necessities are expensive

There is going to be a well-deserved shitshow when these IPO proceeds start hitting real estate markets.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#115

Post by Xunjin »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#116

Post by fakeBeerDrinker »

treyd wrote: post #101
Avicebron wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Raven, Raven.. that's for those who can borrow against that to know and you to likely never find out. What you thought your life would improve? Didn't you hear, wages are only increasing, why don't you invest some of that sweet cash into @JumpCrissCross' fund, it'll be alright. What were you going to do with healthcare anyway?

Meanwhile the federal minimum wage is still $7.25/hr.

And how many earn this? Around 1% of hourly employees…if that. Not what I’d be concerned with right now.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#117

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Xunjin wrote: post #115
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

> If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

Why? It could be sudden. It could be slow and gradual. I've seen no reason it needs to be one versus the other.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#118

Post by SilverElfin »

joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

What’s defensible about Anthropic’s revenue? It seems like OpenAI and others are equivalent. Open weight models are catching up. Google has ads networks, video platforms, and so much more.

I am skeptical that Anthropic and OpenAI can defend their dominance for long enough to make meaningful gaap accounted profits

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#119

Post by giancarlostoro »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space.

In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more about alzheimers, new antibiotics, precision targeting in oncology, using AI to flag healthcare anomalies in imaging. The benefits are easy to miss, but they're snowballing into place, there's definitely an explosion of useless crap, but you have to look for the real things and you will come to find, that AI is giving us things we otherwise either might not have discovered or wouldn't have within our lifetimes.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#120

Post by olalonde »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).
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