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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#91

Post by Avicebron »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82
carlosjobim wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government debt isn't like personal debt or business debt. The treasury can choose to not honur it, and there's nothing anybody can do about it. Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that, but wouldn't you say they already have enough? No sympathy for people and institutions who make deals with the devil and expect the government to forever enslave taxpayers to honour those deals and…

> Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that Argentina is doing fine. The real constraint would be that defaulting on the debt would cause a credit crisis and bank collapses.

Pretty sure this is why the bankruptcy guy from NY was sent in

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#92

Post by conradkay »

joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

Looks like it'll be more like $2t

https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-ca...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#93

Post by JumpCrisscross »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life?

I think these IPOs are going to mint tens of thousands of new millionaires or something. That, in turn, will generate massive tax windfalls for all levels of government.

> other than the ability to produce more crap?

This is a big "other than." (And to be clear, the jury is still out on whether AI will let us produce more in the long run.)

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#94

Post by alex_young »

d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

  The U.S. Treasury publishes a daily total of the national debt, which as of May 2026 was $39 trillion.

  a little less than half of the total national debt is owed to the "Federal Reserve and intragovernmental holdings"

  In December 2020, foreigners held 33% ($7 trillion out of $21.6 trillion) of publicly held U.S. debt
[~] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_St...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#95

Post by _fizz_buzz_ »

paulpauper wrote: post #13
rconti wrote: post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023. When was the last time since 2009 there was a $500+ billion tech valuation that lost 90% or more? After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.

In 2004 people were predicting that the real estate bubble would burst and then nothing happened. Until it did.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#96

Post by Avicebron »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Raven, Raven.. that's for those who can borrow against that to know and you to likely never find out.

What you thought your life would improve? Didn't you hear, wages are only increasing, why don't you invest some of that sweet cash into @JumpCrissCross' fund, it'll be alright. What were you going to do with healthcare anyway?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#97

Post by Anon1096 »

d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

[flagged]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#99

Post by megadragon9 »

I don't think the market will swallow the stock offerings until we see early signs of GDP growth attributable to these entities. But until then, I think the cost is higher than the benefit, which "The dead economy theory" essay covered it well [0]

[0]: https://www.owenmcgrann.com/p/the-dead-economy-theory

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#100

Post by JumpCrisscross »

golden-face wrote: post #98

Feels more like: can the bond market handle any potential outflows as money is rotated into these IPOs?

> can the bond market handle any potential outflows as money is rotated into these IPOs?

Yes. Even if this capital is just rotated out of the equity markets, it would be fine. The bond markets are orders of magnitude deeper.

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