All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?
Raven, Raven.. that's for those who can borrow against that to know and you to likely never find out. What you thought your life would improve? Didn't you hear, wages are only increasing, why don't you invest some of that sweet cash into @JumpCrissCross' fund, it'll be alright. What were you going to do with healthcare anyway?
Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
101–110 of 1001 posts
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#102[flagged]
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#103I don't think the market will swallow the stock offerings until we see early signs of GDP growth attributable to these entities. But until then, I think the cost is higher than the benefit, which "The dead economy theory" essay covered it well [0] [0]: https://www.owenmcgrann.com/p/the-dead-economy-theory
Investors in these companies are going to be looking for revenue and pathway to profitability. I'm not sure anyone needs to see an impact on GDP to invest.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#104All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#105Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.
From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065:
"Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:
Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.
This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.
Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.
The rules built to protect passive investors:
1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.
2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.
3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing."
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#106Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
The $175T number is unfair because it treats Social Security and Medicare/aid as a liability instead of the service that they are. You might as well say the US is in infinite debt, because we'll always be paying something for our military every year, so infinity years * any dollars = infinite debt. Also: All of those numbers you use to scare people are way, way off.
> it treats Social Security and Medicare/aid as a liability instead of the service that they are It's a liability because the U.S. has promised to pay it. We haven't committed to a level of military spending backed by our full faith and credit. EDIT: Never mind! Apparently we can just cut social security payments.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#108For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…
S&P has not finalized a rule change yet.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…
I was old enough to remember the 08 crash. Then the market starting recovering in 2011/2012 and the sentiment was that the system would crash again soon like 08. Turns out, it was an amazing time to invest. Post 08 crash, all sorts of conspiracy websites like Zero Hedge were popular saying how the world economy would keep crashing.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#110You really think they are going to hold off against selling for multi-millions for another year, especially SpaceX?
OpenAI (and especially) Anthropic are at risk from being undercut by the Chinese labs and their open-weight models and may cause their valuations to be questioned.
If that doesn't cause a correction, then SpaceX will do it for them. There is no lock up for the 5% of shares being available.