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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#111

Post by autoexec »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #75
lukeschlather wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Nvidia is worried about cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business, I think they're trying to keep the cards something resembling affordable for gamers.

Then why wouldn't they just make more of them? The excuse is supposed to be fab capacity, but the 3070 has better performance than the 4060 etc. and is built on the older process which should no longer be in short supply.

Is it an issue of supply? I figure they think non-gamers will be willing and able to pay far more for their hardware than most gamers could ever afford. If they sold comparable products to gamers at a low price the non-gamers would just end up buying them up and even if there was enough supply to satisfy the needs of everyone Nvidia would still be out a fortune.

It'd be better for them to sell low priced gaming cards that would perform poorly for non-gaming purposes and sell extremely high priced specialty cards to the people who want to use them for AI or crypto or whatever other non-gaming uses they come up with.

That'd at least keep the price of video cards low for gamers, avoid supply issues, and allow nvidia to extract massive amounts of profit from companies with no interest in video games. The only downside would be that it makes it harder for anyone who doesn't have deep pockets to get into the AI game.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#112

Post by martinpw »

Ologn wrote: post #99
FredPret wrote: post #30

Nvidia has seen a fantastic, geometric increase in profit [1]. This is exactly the kind of thing growth investors hope for. However, their PE ratio is currently 93. This is the kind of PE growth investors buy at, hoping for geometric earnings growth to kick in, not the situation after such growth has taken place. Which means they'll have to keep 2x-ing that profit for a long time to come. It could be doable but I don…

What is their trailing P/E and what is their forward P/E? Their trailing P/E has January 2023, where their earnings were 1.41 billion, and revenues were 6.05 billion. Their last quarter earnings were 9.24 billion, and revenues were 18.12 billion. Their earnings last quarter were 50% more than, not their earnings in the first quarter, but their revenues in the first quarter.

This is the right way to look at it. The P/E ratio of 90+ includes two quarters of relatively low profit before things really took off in the most recent two quarters.

Annualizing the forecast earnings for the next quarter leads to a P/E of 38. Still high, but not outrageous: https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/others/will-nvidia-stoc...

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#113

Post by eru »

selectodude wrote: post #106
jayd16 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"You're only upset because they "

You using your market advantage to exploit your employer or do you feel like you’re being paid a fair amount?

I'm not sure you can trust the (would-be) exploiters opinion on whether the amount they are being paid is 'fair'?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#115

Post by eru »

blackoil wrote: post #87
wbsun wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.

INAL. Antitrust is not against monopoly, but monopoly "abuse". MS is free to make an OS which everyone wants and free to be a monopoly. When they tried to leverage it to gain market share in the distinct market of browser and media players it became a problem. So till ASML starts abusing the position they should be good legally.

Watch out, different jurisdictions have different 'anti-trust' laws. And, especially in common law jurisdictions, interpretations of a law can also change over time.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#116

Post by AnthonyMouse »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #88
tuyguntn wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

don't underestimate market forces. Same could have been told about Intel, but Apple anyway beat them in some ways and took away big market share

Intel isn’t top of their game and haven’t been for many many years.

Intel knows how to make software and libraries for their hardware, which is the thing people keep lamenting about AMD. Intel's current GPUs are mediocre but priced competitively for what they are, and Intel having more competitive hardware in the future is not implausible.

Which could lead to Intel realizing the opportunity they have. Create decent libraries that work across every vendor's GPUs. In the short term this helps AMD at the expense of Nvidia, which in itself helps Intel by preventing Nvidia from maintaining a moat. In the medium term Intel then has people using Intel's libraries to write code that will work on their future GPUs and then their problem is limited to producing competitive hardware.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#117

Post by Jensson »

Wohlf wrote: post #108
ralph84 wrote: post #11

Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.

There's plenty of founders who ran their companies in to the ground, and even more who never got it off the ground in the first place. There's no guaranteed recipe for success.

We are talking successful founders here, that is a very different group from all founders.

> There's no guaranteed recipe for success.

Yes, which is why he said bet on, not know it will win.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#118

Post by ergocoder »

llm_trw wrote: post #40
FredPret wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

There is _one_ other GPU maker.

What the hell is intel doing? I have been holding their stock for a few years now. Where is the moon?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#119

Post by eru »

docandrew wrote: post #79
wbsun wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.

Have they actually engaged in anticompetitive behavior or are they just the only player?

Well, that would be for a judge (or jury?) to decide, if someone sued.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#120

Post by linksnapzz »

wbsun wrote: post #70
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. If you peel the layers back... isn't the real monopoly ASML?

I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.

Because the patents that they have for their deep EUV tooling are...licensed property of the US DoE. Someone doesn't want that disturbed.
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