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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#41
When you look at the moat for these companies, is it really justified?

I just think about ARM and Intel/AMD. I find it hard to believe that existing GPUs with their memory bandwidth considerations are optimal architecture and that in 20y we will have the same compute model

But the last time I did any work with cuda was a decade ago, so very rough ideas here

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#43
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware. As compared to AMD or Intel? I wish there was real competition to Nvidia but there isn't. I'm not a fan of their defacto monopoly but they do have the best product on the market and their competition has been asleep for 10 years. AMD and Intel barely knew what deep learning was 10 years ago (and certainly did not appreciate the oppor…

> Nvidia was already investing heavily that sounds very interesting, can you link/share/describe some details on it? how much did they invest? how? into CUDA? what else?

My statements based on high level meetings I had at the time with all 3 companies when I had started an early neural network PaaS company and was looking for them to invest. Nvidia knew what they were talking about and were already moving that direction, Intel heard about deep learning somewhere but didn't believe there was anything there, and AMD didn't know anything about anything.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#44

Nvidia has seen a fantastic, geometric increase in profit [1]. This is exactly the kind of thing growth investors hope for. However, their PE ratio is currently 93. This is the kind of PE growth investors buy at, hoping for geometric earnings growth to kick in, not the situation after such growth has taken place. Which means they'll have to keep 2x-ing that profit for a long time to come. It could be doable but I don…

Wouldn't 2x-ing their profit over the next year get the PE down to half? Why do they need to 2x their profit for a long time to come?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#46
post #3

It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.

I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…

>Given my time in FAANG, I also speak from inside knowledge of how deeply f’ed these companies are

Please tell us more of your expertise and deep insight, FAANG employee #1,908,680.

Google has developed their own chips. Apple has developed their own chips. It’s really not that hard if your pockets are deep enough or the bottom line checks out.

When Apple launches their AI offering this year, it’s not going to need NVIDIA.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#48

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

I don't think Nvidia is worried about cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business, I think they're trying to keep the cards something resembling affordable for gamers.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#49
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

There is _one_ other GPU maker.

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#50

Insanity. How much of their success/future hinges on TSMC's continued success/future? Kudos to them but the risk makes me uneasy.

Not that much I'd say. They could switch to Samsung or Intel. As long as they can use the same fabs their competitors use they'll be fine.
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