Live data from Hacker News

The Software Revolution

blog.samaltman.com

361–370 of 397 posts

Re: The Software Revolution

#361
post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Age of abundance or feudal hellhole. Why not both? We certainly have all kinds of societies on earth today. What makes you think we won't have areas that are highly progressive but also areas that are extremely sadistic in the treatment of their people?

An intersting thought experiment is to compare their economic output. If feudal hellhole is more efficient eventually only hellholes will remain.

Fortunately feudal hell holes seem less productive, especially in an age where productivity is more dependent on creativity than basic labour.

Re: The Software Revolution

#362

"Trying to hold on to worthless jobs is a terrible but popular idea." I'm not sure I agree with this proposition. When I was in India, I noticed a large amount of roadwork was being done by men with shovels and other fairly low tech. I asked about it, and was told, to paraphrase, "Sure, we could do it better and faster with machines, but it is better for society to provide employment to those who would otherwise be u…

There's no dignity in it when someone else makes the decision (about what they do with their lives) for them.

Re: The Software Revolution

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holy cow yes. Sterile environments are a big deal. Try holding one for a day, let alone a work week or a year. People screw up all the time, and bacteria, being pretty much invisible, are real tough to ferret out. Let alone all the actual non-sterile stuff you want to do in one. Think a clean room with bunny suits, that is the type of environment you need just to get a start on figuring out Dr. Doom type viruses and…

I do not think you need a safe lab to produce a viable weapon grade virus. Here is basic outline: start with existing virus that has strong desired traits and known strains that mutated to resist antibiotics. Example traits include spread model, incubation length, and lethality. Establish or take over a remote site that has little to no interaction with outside world. Remote corners of Africa and South America come t…

Without a safe lab how do you propose those running the operation won't kill themselves?

Re: The Software Revolution

#364
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think of it differently. As an engineer I'd use a control volume - draw a circle around the economy. Label inputs and outputs. E.g. mining, sunlight to produce food and energy, available land and water. The economy thrives if those things have a positive balance. The money is just a strange way of scorekeeping - imaginary points the people use to regulate their selfishness. For instance the idea of a Basic Income i…

I'd support Basic Income in theory, but I don't know if it's politically feasible in the US. People are still talking about dismantling Medicare and Medicaid, and of course, everything related to Obamacare, even the parts that work quite well. It's entirely possible the answer to increased joblessness here will be to tell the unemployed to go back to school, then raise the cost of student loans by some ridiculous fac…

Yeah until the current generation in power grows old and dies, we'll continue to consider 'joblessness' a problem. Remember the golden age of science fiction, where the goal was to get everybody out of work in a society run by robots? Well, the closer we get, the more we resist it seems.

Re: The Software Revolution

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is factually incorrect, the extensive documentation of the era makes it clear that the east India company and British rule made it a point to destroy native industry, vaccum raw material, on top of introducing laws and acts which penalized you for being a particular race. All of those economic structures were destroyed and perverted by the conquerors.

The fact that the East India company was a bunch of jerks doesn't change the fact that most of the world became richer, just at a slower rate. The results of a quick google search: http://www.krusekronicle.com/kruse_kronicle/2008/03/charting... https://wanhasni.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/prosperity-of-nati...

I took a look at those articles and they don't support the position with sufficient authority or evidence.

Consider two charts from those two blogs - chart from blog 2 shows the contribution to global GDP of India and China.

Chart 1 from blog 1 shows how growth spiked by 1820 onwards.

Even if we take the data into consideration without question, 1857 is the year when the revolt of 1857 took place in India, and the British east India gave up control of India - handing it over to the crown. So at this juncture wealth transfer to the west has already begun from India at the very least.

Should that wealth transfer not occurred, I beleove we would have had even better outcomes than what we see today.

Britain and the west was able to take advantage of new technologies and increasingly build monopolies, while abusing government regulation and dictat to pauper competition, and disenfranchise and enslave huge swathes of people.

It was known policy to convert subject colonies into markets for cheap goods, after sucking out resources via slavery on low pay. Competing businesses or crafts were also removed from the picture where possible, and it's obvious that local rulers and governments were sacked or taxed regularly.

Logically we know that a fair market creates more wealth for all who participate. Given that this was a perversion of these ideals, I suggest that the British were at the right place at the right time, and ensured a standard of living for their country men at the cost of almost every country they touched.

If on the other hand, if countries had been able to compete and import technologies - which many business men of the time did try to do - it's certain that this would have driven even more competition and innovation globally.

Re: The Software Revolution

#366
This post kind of reminds me of a book I read about 10 years ago. "Revolutionary Wealth" by Alvin Toffler:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_Wealth

AFAICR in this book, the third revolution is referred to as "The revolution of knowledge" and I think it better describes how and what has changed during the past... 20 years.

Great book by the way. I think it was where I read for the first time a good perspective of how 3d printers could play an important role in the near future.

Re: The Software Revolution

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that the East India company was a bunch of jerks doesn't change the fact that most of the world became richer, just at a slower rate. The results of a quick google search: http://www.krusekronicle.com/kruse_kronicle/2008/03/charting... https://wanhasni.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/prosperity-of-nati...

I took a look at those articles and they don't support the position with sufficient authority or evidence. Consider two charts from those two blogs - chart from blog 2 shows the contribution to global GDP of India and China. Chart 1 from blog 1 shows how growth spiked by 1820 onwards. Even if we take the data into consideration without question, 1857 is the year when the revolt of 1857 took place in India, and the Br…

I didn't say wealth wouldn't have been higher if colonization didn't occur, though I'm definitely unconvinced of that. I merely said that growth did occur everywhere.

Logically we know that a fair market creates more wealth for all who participate. Given that this was a perversion of these ideals...

We don't know this. The relevant counterfactual is not a perfect free market, but whatever the assorted kings of India would have imposed. I don't know enough about the history to comment on their likely economic policies.

Re: The Software Revolution

#368
post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fairly convinced that eventually there will be two and only two choices: universal income and a shortened work week, or such extreme wealth divisions that stability demands a totalitarian police state resembling the worst sort of comic book cyberpunk dystopia. Age of abundance or feudal hellhole. Your pick. There simply will not be enough economically viable work to sustain any system that demands labor to mainta…

Considering that it is natural for humans to lust after power I can tell you what I think is the most likely outcome. I think we're already seeing it form today and it's infancy doesn't detract from it's long-term danger.

Not sure why you are being downvoted, I think that you are absolutely right.

Re: The Software Revolution

#369
> But a rocket can destroy anything on earth. [...] What can we do? [...] I think the best strategy is to try to legislate sensible safeguards but work very hard to make sure the edge we get from technology on the good side is stronger than...

Sam, I suspect the only solid option is to diversify humanity. Be more than a one-planet species. That feels a bit emotionally unpalatable, but do you disagree?

Re: The Software Revolution

#370
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if you're asking sama about his opinion or if you want others to chime in. A popular answer among the HN crowd that I tend to agree with is to tax the wealthy and distribute the proceeds to the poor via a "basic income" scheme.

A better answer is removing expensive barriers of entry to allow small businesses to compete with larger companies, removing artificial boundaries to allow labor to go where it is most needed just as capital is allowed the same today, and _reducing taxes_ allowing the middle class to thrive once more instead of giving special privileges to the wealthy and buying off the poor with free debt.

As a member of the middle class, I'm honestly curious how reducing taxes would help me in the least.

An extra thousand bucks or so at the end of the year gets me what exactly?

Post reply on HN