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The Software Revolution

blog.samaltman.com

341–350 of 397 posts

Re: The Software Revolution

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And because of this, a breathtaking gap opened up between wages in the West and wages everywhere else. This was because of the West getting richer, not everyone else getting poorer. Had the 'third world' countries had the right economic structures in place they too would have gotten richer like the West, much as East Asia has caught up to the West's economic development since economic and social reforms after WW2.

This is factually incorrect, the extensive documentation of the era makes it clear that the east India company and British rule made it a point to destroy native industry, vaccum raw material, on top of introducing laws and acts which penalized you for being a particular race. All of those economic structures were destroyed and perverted by the conquerors.

The fact that the East India company was a bunch of jerks doesn't change the fact that most of the world became richer, just at a slower rate. The results of a quick google search:

http://www.krusekronicle.com/kruse_kronicle/2008/03/charting...

https://wanhasni.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/prosperity-of-nati...

Re: The Software Revolution

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wouldn't blame India for its condition due to having a jobs program. Sure, the jobs program alone probably can't do that much harm, but it is indicative of a bigger problem - that their people don't understand economics and vote in favor of things that are economically good.

I think it's a symptom of a different bigger problem: that vestiges of the caste systems once pervasive in India (and indeed much of the world) for the last several millennia are still very present. The belief that "those darn workers exist to do manual labor, so we should come to expect that they'll always want to do manual labor and - therefore - we should provide such opportunities" is a rather clear manifestation…

I am an Indian, and have always lived in India. And, in several parts of India too!

The problem of caste is certainly visible in multiple aspects of Indian life. However, what you say above is no longer true, even at the level of most villages (where the caste systems work stronger).

The issues of automating jobs and the resulting unemployment in a country like India, are both deeper and broader than your characterization of it.

Re: The Software Revolution

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First: what do you mean 'upgrade everything from human secure'? I think if we've learnt anything recently it's that basically nothing is currently even human secure, let alone superintelligent AI secure. Second: most doomsday scenarios around superintelligent AI are, I suspect, promulgated by software guys (or philosophers, who are more mindware guys). It assumes the hardware layer is easy for the AI to interface wit…

By 'upgrade everything from human secure' I meant that some targets aren't necessarily appealing to human targets but would be for AI targets. For example, for the vast majority of people, it's not worthwhile to hack medical devices or refrigerators, there's just no money or advantage in it. But for an AI who could be throttled by computational speed or wishes people harm, they would be an appealing target. There jus…

My point 3 was, somewhat snarkily, that AI will be built by humans on a foundation of crappy software, riddled with bugs, and that therefore it would very likely wind up crashing itself.

I am not a techno-optimist.

Re: The Software Revolution

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is factually incorrect, the extensive documentation of the era makes it clear that the east India company and British rule made it a point to destroy native industry, vaccum raw material, on top of introducing laws and acts which penalized you for being a particular race. All of those economic structures were destroyed and perverted by the conquerors.

Wrong. Neither China nor Russia were ever colonized yet even today they lack behind the west.

Did you sleep through the entire 20th century? The one where the US was in a spending match with Russia. China collapsed under the weight of corruption. USSR collapsed under the weight of corruption. Depending on who you ask, the US is collapsing under the weight of {corruption|bureaucracy|congress}.

Re: The Software Revolution

#345

I disagree with this: "The previous one, the industrial revolution, created lots of jobs" That industrial revolution caused massive unemployment in India, in the Ottoman empire, in China... almost everywhere that had once been a famous textile center. The idea that the industrial revolution did not cause unemployment is an illusion that is caused by looking at only one nation state. But Britain was the winner of the…

> And because of this, a breathtaking gap opened up between wages in the West and wages everywhere else. The so-called Third World was summoned into existence.

Just picking a nit, but the Third World came into existence during the Cold War, long after the industrial revolution. Third world countries are countries that were non-aligned or neutral during the Cold War.

http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Third_World

Re: The Software Revolution

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Designing new viruses or bacteria for a neo-plauge is less likely Humankind has been genetically engineering organisms for most of our existence. Corn originally looked like grass. Chickens were lean, tough, and could fly. Dogs have been transformed from generalist survivors into purpose-built machines breed for beauty, farm work, and everything in between. The avocado, of all things, is a fantastic example of how…

Can you expand on the avocado stuff, or do you have a source? Sounds pretty interesting.

The avocado stuff its not really true. The avocado shouldn't exist, because the animal that propagated its seeds went extinct a long time ago (if the term "Megafauna" comes to your mind when you think about that, you are not misguided), but wasn't created by humans, in the same way that corn or wheat are, because the avocado survived even when there were no humans around to propagate its seeds.

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/why-the-avocado-s...

Re: The Software Revolution

#348
post #13

Anyone interested in this topic should pick up a copy of Carlota Perez's Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. It speaks more specifically about the last 5 revolutions, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, and provides a framework for understanding the relationship between tech revolutions and finance. Just a fantastic read. Don't just take my word for it though. Here is Fred Wilson saying the same: h…

Wholeheartedly agree with this, I found Carlota’s book to be accessible despite not having an economics background. There is also an excellent documentary she’s in about the most recent financial crisis: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2180589/

Re: The Software Revolution

#349
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am puzzled by this. There is also this first order decrease in cost of living that technology drives, that really is the 'rising tide that lifts all boats', in effect, a 'natural' progressive redistribution[0]. It would be hard to argue that inequality increased between, say, 1700 and 1900 because of the increase in technology. [0] This 'natural' redistribution tends to be counteracted by authorities that debase th…

> It would be hard to argue that inequality increased between Based on averages, why would it be? Inequality does not measure where you are coming from, it measures the relative economic distance between groups now. We can all live better these days and yet have a far greater difference in wealth between the richest and poorest.

yeah, pretty sure the gini coefficient went down during that era.

Re: The Software Revolution

#350
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just going to say what should be obvious: One is not going to be able to engineer a dangerous plague that will wipe out the human race in one shot. One would have to do experiments, and those experiments will be noticed, because people will get sick and die. I did get lucky and design, from first principles, a 4-fold increase in enzyme activity once, but I am not sure that is something I could repeat.

I'm not from the field, but is it that hard, for a reasonably well funded organization, to build a safe lab ?

it is impossible to build a safe lab that with a high level of assurance will produce a biogenic weapon that will kill, say, more than about 10,000 people.
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