The Software Revolution • Hacker News Board

Re: The Software Revolution

#291

Post by krapp » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 10:42 PM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #278

krapp wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a good point, but in most societies, most people aren't out of work. The safety net depends on people paying in to the system, which depends on people having something to pay.

I think of it differently. As an engineer I'd use a control volume - draw a circle around the economy. Label inputs and outputs. E.g. mining, sunlight to produce food and energy, available land and water. The economy thrives if those things have a positive balance. The money is just a strange way of scorekeeping - imaginary points the people use to regulate their selfishness. For instance the idea of a Basic Income i…

I'd support Basic Income in theory, but I don't know if it's politically feasible in the US. People are still talking about dismantling Medicare and Medicaid, and of course, everything related to Obamacare, even the parts that work quite well.

It's entirely possible the answer to increased joblessness here will be to tell the unemployed to go back to school, then raise the cost of student loans by some ridiculous factor, then not actually attempt to create jobs for them when they get out.

Then again, there are states where gay marriage and marijuana are legal now, so maybe i'm too cynical.

Re: The Software Revolution

#292

Post by makeitsuckless » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 10:45 PM UTC

joesmo wrote: post #252

rayiner wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While those jobs might be necessary, most middle management and office type jobs are incredibly redundant and frankly, pointless. This is a conceit of software folks that's not borne out by reality. Those "worthless" jobs continue to exist because software can do 90% of what those folks do, but shit the bed when faced with the other 10%. Software generally isn't reliable, predictable, or robust in the face of unusu…

The worthlessness of most middle management jobs has nothing to do with software. If they were flat out eliminated, in most cases, nothing would change. There's no software needed to replace them.

The great irony is that it's exactly that arrogant ignorance and inability to understand what happens when large numbers of wildly different human beings try work together why middle management continues to be necessary.

It's like saying we don't need janitors because we can self-organize and all clean the company toilets ourselves.

It's a claim that is as true as it is ignorant and naive.

Re: The Software Revolution

#293

Post by WillNotDownvote » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 10:54 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #233

joesmo wrote: post #194

"Trying to hold on to worthless jobs is a terrible but popular idea." It's terrible sure, but it's popular only because our economy requires it. That is the basis for the whole economy. It's not like people are clamoring to serve McDonalds for minimum wage or clean shit out bathrooms. They have no other choices in this economy. The economy demands it. While those jobs might be necessary, most middle management and of…

> While those jobs might be necessary, most middle management and office type jobs are incredibly redundant and frankly, pointless. This is a conceit of software folks that's not borne out by reality. Those "worthless" jobs continue to exist because software can do 90% of what those folks do, but shit the bed when faced with the other 10%. Software generally isn't reliable, predictable, or robust in the face of unusu…

Large corporations "restructure" all the time. Most often this consists of a periodic pruning of exactly these jobs, which really are worthless. The company continues on, wholly unharmed by the cuts.

Re: The Software Revolution

#294

Post by aceperry » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 10:58 PM UTC

fragsworth wrote: post #241

aceperry wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't blame India for its condition due to having a jobs program. They started off far down the hole when they became a nation after securing their freedom from colonization. They have progressed in many ways, including some of the best schools in the world (IIT), some of the best entrepreneurs and engineers, and some the most advanced technologies (nuclear weapons, modern military, space program). But there is…

> I wouldn't blame India for its condition due to having a jobs program. Sure, the jobs program alone probably can't do that much harm, but it is indicative of a bigger problem - that their people don't understand economics and vote in favor of things that are economically good.

"their people don't understand economics and vote in favor of things that are economically good"

And what is economically good for India? You say that as if you have the correct answer. You're also assuming that the people there voted for the system that they have, and due to their ignorance, they ended up with a system that is causing their problems. I doubt that the present state of India can be attributed to something so simple.

Re: The Software Revolution

#295

Post by jjoonathan » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 11:01 PM UTC

tormeh wrote: post #205

jjoonathan wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to believe that the service sector will be able to absorb the displaced labor without creating insane, poisonous power dynamics that put large sections of the population into an unnecessarily horrible position. For the very reason that I would love to believe this, I am cautious. Do you know of any other reasons why I should let myself hold this belief? I don't find these very convincing: * Faith * Optim…

You're asking if the new jobs of tomorrow will suck harder than the McDonald's of today, and I really don't know. It's easy to assume that more essential, "useful", jobs will be better paid, but if you ask farmers you'll find out that that's not necessarily true. That said, while Notch may feel like he is king of the world right now, most indie game developers don't, I think.

Yup. Supply and demand is the name of the game, "useful" doesn't have anything to do with it.

Re: The Software Revolution

#296

Post by prostoalex » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 11:05 PM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #180

shin_lao wrote: post #127

"The previous one, the industrial revolution, created lots of jobs because the new technology required huge numbers of humans to run it." That's not that simple. The industrial revolution initially destroyed a lot of jobs because it replaced human labor with steam machines. It created new qualified jobs, it is true, because these new intricate machines would require advanced skills to be maintained - a reminiscence o…

The problem is that it was relatively easy to master the technologies of the industrial revolution. It isn't the same for the software revolution. You can take virtually any adult from any part of the world and teach him how to work in a factory within a few months of study. You can't take any random adult and teach him how to code. It requires way higher intellect and time to master coding. I think of myself as rela…

> I think of myself as relatively smart but I've struggled with learning how to code.

That just speaks of the (still) poor state of tools and frameworks.

As early as last century driving a vehicle necessitated detailed knowledge of internal combustion engine and car parts. You can imagine someone from that era writing "I think of myself as relatively smart but I've struggled with learning how to drive" after yet another lecture on carburetors, crankshaft, and bearing boxes.

Re: The Software Revolution

#297

Post by prostoalex » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 11:07 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #169

Altman sees the problem, but is vague about what to do about it. He's right that this is a new thing. It's not "software", per se, it's automation in general. For almost all of human history, the big problem was making enough stuff. Until about 1900 or so, 80-90% of the workforce made stuff - agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and construction. That number went below 50% some time after WWII. It's continued to drop.…

I don't think it's possible to figure it out with the knowledge we have today.

Just like 50 years ago no one would've predicted that "social media manager with knowledge of WordPress and Drupal" was a job.

For what it's worth, US labor participation rate is still way above its historic lows http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Labor_Participation_Rat...

Re: The Software Revolution

#298

Post by apsec112 » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 11:13 PM UTC

markbnj wrote: post #24

I don't necessarily buy the "AI can end humanity" thing. As a cliche that's become very easy to repeat, but I've yet to see a postulated mechanism by which it could actually happen that isn't pure SF. The ending of human life would not be so easy for computers to accomplish. But on the subject of concentration of power and the wide-scale elimination of low- and middle-range jobs I think he is dead on. I fear that the…

If you found a plausible way to kill billions of people over the Internet, you wouldn't post it on public websites, because that would be dumb. Responsible security researchers don't publish 0-days until they've been patched, and this would be a million times worse. When Szilard discovered the nuclear chain reaction, he had the good sense to keep his mouth shut, etc. etc.

Re: The Software Revolution

#299

Post by prostoalex » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 11:15 PM UTC

swalsh wrote: post #209

joesmo wrote: post #194

"Trying to hold on to worthless jobs is a terrible but popular idea." It's terrible sure, but it's popular only because our economy requires it. That is the basis for the whole economy. It's not like people are clamoring to serve McDonalds for minimum wage or clean shit out bathrooms. They have no other choices in this economy. The economy demands it. While those jobs might be necessary, most middle management and of…

synthetic biology does exist, just look at this: http://www.genomecompiler.com/ Also look at this: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-... It's only been since 2010 that we've known how to actually do it, but the technology exists. Pandora's box has been opened. AI development isn't science fiction either. GPU's + convolutional neural networks have been enabling radical developments in the are…

Don't forget about http://cambriangenomics.com/ a YC company.

Re: The Software Revolution

#300

Post by WillNotDownvote » Mon, Feb 16, 2015, 11:16 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #267

Micaiah_Chang wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Er, sorry for giving the impression that it'd be a supervillain. My intention was to indicate that it'd be a weird intelligence, and that by default weird intelligences don't do what humans want. There are some other examples which I could have given to clarify (e.g. telling it to "make everyone happy" could just result in it giving everyone heroine forever, telling it to preserve people's smiles could result in it f…

So like it's clear to me why you wouldn't want to take a system based on AI-like technology and have it control air traffic or missile response. But it doesn't take a deep appreciation for the dangers of artificial intelligence to see that. You can just understand the concept of a software bug to know why you want humans in the observe/decide/act loop of critical systems. So there must be more to it than that, right?…

What if the AI was integral to the design and manufacturing processes of all the airplanes, which is a much more likely path?

Then you can see how it gains 'control', in the senses that control matters anyway, without us necessarily even realizing it, or objecting if we do.