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W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

nytimes.com

101–110 of 110 posts

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#101

I'm trying to remain calm about this, but its growing increasingly difficult. We're not far off pandemic territory. 10k new cases per week ? Very very alarming.

Malaria kills over half a million people a year, out of over 200M cases. Why is ebola so much more alarming?

You can easily protect against Malaria with various drugs.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#102
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most Ebola patients never bleed profusely the way we imagine them to (though, as it happened, this particular woman was bleeding from the mouth). It apparently is actually very hard to distinguish from other tropical diseases in most cases. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/ In fact, that is why it took so long to identify and respond to the current outbreak. >Here, then, still in January, long befor…

Regardless, in this particular case it seems rather apparent that Duncan lied. If she was bleeding from the mouth and he was aware of it, in Liberia during an Ebola outbreak, then there at the very least he should have answered that "history of contact with ebola" question with a strong "maybe" . I am suspicious of the family being in denial, but I don't think that it is impossible. However for Duncan to also be in d…

He likely did lie, but can you blame him? If you were faced with a question where answering truthfully meant you'd be trapped in a hellhole where what little healthcare infrastructure there was had already completely fallen apart, and lying meant access to world-class care... which would you pick?

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#103
post #96
post #63

There is a good recent article in The Guardian where three western nurses describe their experience in caring for people with the virus. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/13/ebola-nurses-de...

This seemed misguided: "I have heard media reports calling for people such as me who have been treating Ebola patients to be quarantined for 21 or even 42 days. These ideas are not based on the medical facts. People only need to be quarantined if they are showing symptoms and if you do not have a fever, there is no risk of you transmitting Ebola to someone.: What happens once you start showing symptoms? They're likel…

"These ideas are not based on the medical facts. People only need to be quarantined if they are showing symptoms and if you do not have a fever, there is no risk of you transmitting Ebola to someone."

Also, that above fact is wrong. "Yet the largest study of the current outbreak found that in nearly 13% of "confirmed and probable" cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and elsewhere, those infected did not have fevers." http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-1012-ebola-fever-2014101...

Even letting one-in-ten get through undetected is too high. Especially since any strains of the virus that are harder to detect are exactly the strains that most the most threat and must be kept out.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called being an asymptomatic carrier look up Typhoid Mary. You may be infecting elderly and babies but are unaffected, as others have said a flu shot isn't so much about protecting you it's about people around you. My 70 year-old dad has IPF his lungs are shot and if he catches the flu he's as good as dead. It's frustrating the ambivalence or apathy or just outright paranoia is so prevalent these days. At my wor…

But if you actually grant the "good immune system" bit, then wouldn't that imply that the immune system already is prepared to fight off the flu, or learns so very quickly; and then what ultimaltey is the difference between someone who was vaccinated with a syringe, and someone who was "vaccinated" by an actual infection, if you know what I mean?

Several days of shedding virus. Also, with influenza, you start spreading virus before you have symptoms. So keeping away from people once you notice you are sick isn't enough.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#105
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never gotten the flu shot, and hadn't planned to this year. I'm in great health; my immune system seems to be functioning extremely well. I never get sick. However, I am concerned about the needle-haystack phenomenon with ebola. Can you link me to a reasonable, digestible abstract about the real pros-and-cons of flu shot?

I was young and in good health when during one semester of law school, I caught the flu during finals week. All the studying I had done all semester to learn the material was very hard to drag out of my brain while I was worn out and sore and barely able to breathe from the flu. Since then, I have received the flu shot most years, and I can keep productive during the winter while other people have to take time off fr…

Got swine flu just before my property final (thankfully, the others were over). Word.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#106
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The military is quite good at operations 'other than war'. I was a minor cog in one effort, in 1991: Joint Task Force Sea Angel. Details are searchable, but the upshot is that NGOs (I no longer recall if the term was used then) provided far more disaster relief assets and supplies, than the military did. What the Marines brought to the party was command and control, and the ability to field, and support, a thousand g…

That is already happening. There are already 565 US military in the region, and Obama plans to deploy up to 4000. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/anothe...

Honestly I have been disappointed by how effective they have been. I would expect the Army to be able to build field hospitals faster than this. There have been a lot of setbacks, detailed in a recent NYTimes article: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/us-effort-in-liberia-ba...

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is already happening. There are already 565 US military in the region, and Obama plans to deploy up to 4000. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/anothe...

Honestly I have been disappointed by how effective they have been. I would expect the Army to be able to build field hospitals faster than this. There have been a lot of setbacks, detailed in a recent NYTimes article: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/us-effort-in-liberia-ba...

" the local contractor announced that the crusher’s engine, needed to smash rocks, had broken" and "Hauling parts and equipment from the United States and Europe takes time, and then there are negotiations with local contractors for heavy equipment."

That's crazy. The Seebees and other military engineers have rock crushers, and construction equipment. They know how to break that stuff down and put it on airplanes. The Air Force is used to transporting that stuff.

Now, I was only a stupid jarhead, and there may be issues not called out in the article, but I'd expect a week, tops, could get engineers on site, working, with their own equipment.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is already happening. There are already 565 US military in the region, and Obama plans to deploy up to 4000. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/anothe...

Honestly I have been disappointed by how effective they have been. I would expect the Army to be able to build field hospitals faster than this. There have been a lot of setbacks, detailed in a recent NYTimes article: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/us-effort-in-liberia-ba...

replying to you since i can't reply to the child reply i wanted to address.

If they deployed the SeaBees this wouldn't be happening. The key word is 'contractor', by using companies to avoid the political taint of 'getting involved where they aren't wanted' or being accused of 'wasting money' we send the proverbial 'lowest bidder' instead of the trained experts. Sad but true.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I have been disappointed by how effective they have been. I would expect the Army to be able to build field hospitals faster than this. There have been a lot of setbacks, detailed in a recent NYTimes article: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/us-effort-in-liberia-ba...

replying to you since i can't reply to the child reply i wanted to address. If they deployed the SeaBees this wouldn't be happening. The key word is 'contractor', by using companies to avoid the political taint of 'getting involved where they aren't wanted' or being accused of 'wasting money' we send the proverbial 'lowest bidder' instead of the trained experts. Sad but true.

The linked article is now slow to load, for me. But I recall that the fellow who was having issues with the rock crusher was called out as a Seebee.

Perhaps he's there as sort of general contractor, working with the locals to build stuff, and not part of a battalion.

Which seems stupid, to me. Building a lot of stuff on short notice, as a team, is what the Seebee battalions are for.

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