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W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

nytimes.com

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Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#21

Post by ColinDabritz »

jMyles wrote: post #5
nostromo wrote: post #4

I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack. Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.

I've never gotten the flu shot, and hadn't planned to this year. I'm in great health; my immune system seems to be functioning extremely well. I never get sick. However, I am concerned about the needle-haystack phenomenon with ebola. Can you link me to a reasonable, digestible abstract about the real pros-and-cons of flu shot?

Current Flu shots have few side effects, and decent protection. I believe there is a chance of mild flu-like symptoms, a chance of ache near the injection site for a day or two.

The CDC has changed stances to recommend everyone (over 6 months) get a flu shot every season.

The CDC has a good rundown: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/flushot.htm

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#22

Post by isaacdl »

Swizec wrote: post #15
simplemath wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They raise your antibody serum levels so you are better able to fight live virus.

Yes I understand how vaccines work. But it just doesn't seem like seasonal flu ever gets in contact with me. At worst I will get a mild seasonal cold[1], which isn't problematic at all. And I don't seem to get sick even when I make out with people suffering from a cold (like my girlfriend). Maybe I just have an abnormally strong immune system? And while you could make a point of herd immunity, flu shots aren't very p…

> Like my girlfriend.

If you regularly make out with said girlfriend, I'd be fairly confident that either of you would have a difficult time making the other ill.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#23

Post by Chromozon »

What scares me the most is the mortality rate. The numbers right now put it at 50%.

Catch Ebola. Flip a coin and guess heads or tails. If you guess incorrectly, you die.

It will be interesting to see this number once it (inevitably) spreads to "developed" nations with much higher standards of health care.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#24

Post by eegilbert »

nostromo wrote: post #4

I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack. Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.

I share these worries.

In addition, consider some of the potential social effects of flu season. You're on a crowded international flight and a handful of people are clearly ill. What are the odds someone on that plane freaks out about Ebola?

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#25

Post by Swizec »

simplemath wrote: post #20
Swizec wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I understand how vaccines work. But it just doesn't seem like seasonal flu ever gets in contact with me. At worst I will get a mild seasonal cold[1], which isn't problematic at all. And I don't seem to get sick even when I make out with people suffering from a cold (like my girlfriend). Maybe I just have an abnormally strong immune system? And while you could make a point of herd immunity, flu shots aren't very p…

See reply here for why healthy people should still get a flu shot https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8456067

Or I could just avoid touching people if I have the sniffles? And just follow standard recommended practices for limiting the spread of colds (wash hands before/after touching face, only sneeze/cough into your elbow, avoid sick people etc.)

Does that not suffice? Can I still transfer the flu even if the virus isn't affecting me in even the slightest possible way?

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#26

Post by freyrs3 »

simplemath wrote: post #18
danieltillett wrote: post #14

Not stopping this outbreak with all the resources we have is running a massive natural experiment in how well adapted Ebola can become for efficient human-to-human transmission. As a zoonotic virus Ebola in its wild state is very unlikely to be optimised for human-to-human transmission. Every new case is increasing the chance that a new strain will arise that will be efficiently transmitted between people. I am not t…

There's already limited evidence that some transmission is occurring via atomized saliva/mucous. A truly airbone variant could cause a "get in your bunker and ride it out" kind of event.

Might as well start worrying about an airborne mutation of HIV while we're at it. Wouldn't start heading for the bunker just yet.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#27

Post by baddox »

AmVess wrote: post #17
ollysb wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They handed them out at one of my previous jobs (corporate gig). Everyone that went for them came down with a mild flu after the shot and then proceeded to catch every other flu that came around during the winter. edit: I hadn't realised sharing experience was such a downvotable offence... note I observed this over 3 years. Obviously the flu jab targets specific strains of flu, if the jab you get doesn't target the s…

It's impossible to get the flu from a flu shot.

ollysb didn't say that anyone got the flu from a flu shot.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#28

Post by ianlevesque »

ColinDabritz wrote: post #21
jMyles wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never gotten the flu shot, and hadn't planned to this year. I'm in great health; my immune system seems to be functioning extremely well. I never get sick. However, I am concerned about the needle-haystack phenomenon with ebola. Can you link me to a reasonable, digestible abstract about the real pros-and-cons of flu shot?

Current Flu shots have few side effects, and decent protection. I believe there is a chance of mild flu-like symptoms, a chance of ache near the injection site for a day or two. The CDC has changed stances to recommend everyone (over 6 months) get a flu shot every season. The CDC has a good rundown: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/flushot.htm

The injected flu shot has completely inactivated (colloquially, dead) virus and cannot cause flu like symptoms. Recent formulation removed the egg allergy restrictions as well. There's effectively no reason for anyone to avoid being vaccinated.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#29

Post by danieltillett »

simplemath wrote: post #18
danieltillett wrote: post #14

Not stopping this outbreak with all the resources we have is running a massive natural experiment in how well adapted Ebola can become for efficient human-to-human transmission. As a zoonotic virus Ebola in its wild state is very unlikely to be optimised for human-to-human transmission. Every new case is increasing the chance that a new strain will arise that will be efficiently transmitted between people. I am not t…

There's already limited evidence that some transmission is occurring via atomized saliva/mucous. A truly airbone variant could cause a "get in your bunker and ride it out" kind of event.

Yes Ebola can be transmitted that way, but it is an unlikely route. The way Ebola is constructed it is very unlikely to become airborne [1], but it could increase in natural reproductive efficiency (R0). We really have no idea of the R0 for Ebola right now as we don’t have the people on the ground recording what is happening in the community.

Ebola does not have to become airborne for it to be a problem. Polio is not airborne and it has a very high R0 (5 − 7). The difference is polio is adapted for human-to-human transmission while Ebola is very unlikely to be. I don’t want to find out how well adapted Ebola can become.

[1] Something that I have noticed about the discussion here is many people are unclear about what it mean for a virus to be “airborne” (this is not surprising since most people are not virologists). What airborne mean is that the virus is adapted to spreading via small mucosal droplets. The classic virus for this is rhinovirus (the most common cold virus). Rhinovirus infects the mucosal cells of the upper respiratory tract, it causes you to produce lots of mucus, it makes you sneeze a lot releasing this mucus in small droplets into the air, the virus is hardy enough to survive in the small mucosal droplets, and it doesn’t make you that ill so you still go to work where you can spread it around your co-workers. Doing all the things required the evolution of many interlocking adaptations in the Rhinovirus genome.

Ebola's infection mechanism is nothing like Rhinovirus. While in theory it is possible that Ebola could acquire all the adaptions required to be spread efficiently by small mucosal droplets, it is really unlikely as there are so many changes required. This is why most experts think it is unlikely that Ebola will become “airborne”.

Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

#30

Post by danieltillett »

Chromozon wrote: post #23

What scares me the most is the mortality rate. The numbers right now put it at 50%. Catch Ebola. Flip a coin and guess heads or tails. If you guess incorrectly, you die. It will be interesting to see this number once it (inevitably) spreads to "developed" nations with much higher standards of health care.

If Ebola does become able to spread in western countries (right now it can’t), then unless you are one of the first few hundred to get it then there will be little difference between the first world and third world since all our hospitals would soon collapse.
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