81–90 of 110 posts
What scares me the most is the mortality rate. The numbers right now put it at 50%. Catch Ebola. Flip a coin and guess heads or tails. If you guess incorrectly, you die. It will be interesting to see this number once it (inevitably) spreads to "developed" nations with much higher standards of health care.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
While I am firmly on the side that believes that Ebola is very serious and we need to do everything we can to stop it [1], it is possible the R0 could drop below 1 via changes in behaviour of the people in west Africa. Since we really have a poor idea of what factors are driving the spread of Ebola, it is possible that these factors could change spontaneously. For example, people might get so scared of Ebola in the a…
In your piece, you advocate a military response. What do you want militaries to do to combat this problem? I'm terrified of this becoming a shooting war in which people suffering such horrible misery also become victims of violence intended to keep them "away." I don't want tens of thousands in west Africa to die of ebola, but I certain don't want them to die lonely, thirsty, and ducking for cover. :-( It seems like…
1. The scale of the problem is too large (both geographically and in the numbers of people affected) for any organisation (or group of organisations) other than the military to handle. Even if we moved to immediate mobilisation today it would still take months to get up and running on the ground by which time the problem will be vastly bigger.
2. We need to enforce a effective quarantine in the area and provide protection for the health care personnel. Only the military has the ability to do this.
3. I think we will have problems recruiting enough volunteer medical staff and may need to conscript them to get them to go.
4. Only full-scale mobilisation will stop the political games. Only if this problem is treated as war will we be able to get effective action out of the bickering political parties.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes Ebola can be transmitted that way, but it is an unlikely route. The way Ebola is constructed it is very unlikely to become airborne [1], but it could increase in natural reproductive efficiency (R0). We really have no idea of the R0 for Ebola right now as we don’t have the people on the ground recording what is happening in the community. Ebola does not have to become airborne for it to be a problem. Polio is not…
Wasn't there strong circumstantial evidence that the Ebola Reston strain was spreading without any bodily contact? It was discovered in lab monkeys in Virgina and spread from room to room of monkeys without any direct contact between the monkeys. It's possible caretakers were spreading it, but it seemed more likely that the strain had gone airborne.
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My total layman's impression of this has been that it doesn't matter if the virus mutates to something "worse" -- that, short of some currently politically impossible action several orders of magnitude beyond what is currently being done, there is no really solid, non-magical-thinking, reason to believe this outbreak won't kill tens/hundreds of millions of people and threaten world civilization as we know it, even wi…
I am bouncing back and forth between the positions you describe. At the end of the day, though, if the "R-naught" is less than 2 in uncontrolled situations, and something like 1 in a hospital, it seems like it can be reduced to As I understand it, the most dangerous type of "worse" is ebola becoming less deadly.
I suppose you could describe being contagious for longer or being contagious with less prominent symptoms as "less deadly".
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I surmise that I just have a good immune system (I'm not sure if it's "unusually" good). I don't go around asking all my friends and colleagues if they've gotten a flu shot, but I don't think they do? edit: Jeez, downvotes? Did I say something wrong? I'm not trying to troll, just answering the question.
It's called being an asymptomatic carrier look up Typhoid Mary. You may be infecting elderly and babies but are unaffected, as others have said a flu shot isn't so much about protecting you it's about people around you. My 70 year-old dad has IPF his lungs are shot and if he catches the flu he's as good as dead. It's frustrating the ambivalence or apathy or just outright paranoia is so prevalent these days. At my wor…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
While I am firmly on the side that believes that Ebola is very serious and we need to do everything we can to stop it [1], it is possible the R0 could drop below 1 via changes in behaviour of the people in west Africa. Since we really have a poor idea of what factors are driving the spread of Ebola, it is possible that these factors could change spontaneously. For example, people might get so scared of Ebola in the a…
In your piece, you advocate a military response. What do you want militaries to do to combat this problem? I'm terrified of this becoming a shooting war in which people suffering such horrible misery also become victims of violence intended to keep them "away." I don't want tens of thousands in west Africa to die of ebola, but I certain don't want them to die lonely, thirsty, and ducking for cover. :-( It seems like…
Details are searchable, but the upshot is that NGOs (I no longer recall if the term was used then) provided far more disaster relief assets and supplies, than the military did.
What the Marines brought to the party was command and control, and the ability to field, and support, a thousand guys in only days for delivering food, water, and medical aid.
And also, one shouldn't underestimate the ability of a brigade of disciplined troops to control masses of infected people. If they're told 'don't shoot' then they won't shoot.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's already limited evidence that some transmission is occurring via atomized saliva/mucous. A truly airbone variant could cause a "get in your bunker and ride it out" kind of event.
Yes Ebola can be transmitted that way, but it is an unlikely route. The way Ebola is constructed it is very unlikely to become airborne [1], but it could increase in natural reproductive efficiency (R0). We really have no idea of the R0 for Ebola right now as we don’t have the people on the ground recording what is happening in the community. Ebola does not have to become airborne for it to be a problem. Polio is not…
a) ignorant of virology
b) enamoured of a multiply-debunked case "they've heard" that "might have" involved "airborne" transmission despite the massive unlikeliness of that
c) deeply, deeply fearful about the "possibility of Ebola becoming airborne"
and
d) have never once anywhere posted anything wittering fearfully about influenza becoming a deadly pandemic, which is so many orders of magnitude more likely it isn't funny.
The degree of cognitive failure exhibited by these fearful posters is saddening. There is no obvious reason for them posting their fears and disinformation.
I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack. Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.
I've never gotten the flu shot, and hadn't planned to this year. I'm in great health; my immune system seems to be functioning extremely well. I never get sick. However, I am concerned about the needle-haystack phenomenon with ebola. Can you link me to a reasonable, digestible abstract about the real pros-and-cons of flu shot?
As other comments have said, the main reason for healthy young people to take flu shots is to limit spread of the disease to people who will die from the flu or who cannot take flu shots. But you may very well get direct benefit for yourself, and the risk is very small.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
In your piece, you advocate a military response. What do you want militaries to do to combat this problem? I'm terrified of this becoming a shooting war in which people suffering such horrible misery also become victims of violence intended to keep them "away." I don't want tens of thousands in west Africa to die of ebola, but I certain don't want them to die lonely, thirsty, and ducking for cover. :-( It seems like…
The military is quite good at operations 'other than war'. I was a minor cog in one effort, in 1991: Joint Task Force Sea Angel. Details are searchable, but the upshot is that NGOs (I no longer recall if the term was used then) provided far more disaster relief assets and supplies, than the military did. What the Marines brought to the party was command and control, and the ability to field, and support, a thousand g…
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/anothe...
why is USA still allowing people from those countries fly in? the body temperature measure at airport is 99% useless. When will Duncun's family pay back all those medical expenses here since he lied to the airport before he boarded? Not to mention he put other innocent people in ciritical danger at Dallas.