Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#31

Post by TheLoneWolfling » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:17 PM UTC

yebyen wrote: post #25

chollida1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice. Based on what? Serious question. When people say this about stocks they are either: 1) pulling it out of their ass.. 2) They have done some quantitative analysis, based on some sort of CFA teachings. I'm assuming you are in camp 1 here. Not that there is anything wrong with a "gut feeling", I"m just not going to invest based on it:) As a question to anyone, what sort o…

Well, if you're willing to ignore the existing base of bitcoin already mined (and even in some cases the sunk cost of buying hardware that can be used to mine them) go ahead and do your calculation based solely on the price per unit energy as a starting point. If you use this calculator[1] you can see that if your 50GH/s array spends 300w which you had to pay for, you are burning about $0.48/day at the current price,…

A better graph might be change in hashrate versus price.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#32

Post by nkuttler » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:17 PM UTC

idlewords wrote: post #28

oleganza wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Logarithmic scale makes sense for everyone. If you buy at X dollars and has 100% return when the price is 2X it does not matter what X actually is. Logarithmic scale reflects relative changes which is the only interesting metric for investors. If Bitcoin was traded at $98 12 months ago and now trades at $480, it shows relative change of 400% while the prices themselves do not tell you much.

If bitcoin can go from $98 to $480 in twelve months, that's a glowing sign to merchants saying "BITCOIN TOO VOLATILE TO USE". Investors are not the only audience. I want that big, scary, spiky graph.

Merchants can use a bitcoin to USD payment gateway, and almost all do it. The bitcoin price becomes irrelevant, and implementing bitcoin payments only has to cost less than the additional sales to be profitable. Sure, if you want a big, scary graph go ahead. If you want more sales, who cares.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#33

Post by gexla » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:18 PM UTC

And I'm happy to be someone about to jump fully on the Bitcoin train and never have to think about the price of Bitcoin.

As a U.S. citizen living abroad, Bitcoin is now at the intersection of cheapest, fast (but not instant) and most convenient for receiving my money. There are exchanges here which work automatically and have lots of options for me to receive my money. At this point, I can't say there is a better method available for me.

I'm getting the pathways setup (accounts mostly) and then all of my money transfers will be going through Bitcoin.

When people like me who don't care about the price, but get real utility out of Bitcoin (beyond just the gimmick of merchants accepting payments in Bitcoin which make up less than 1% of sales but much more than that in marketing publicity) then the prices will really start to take off. But, we still won't care about the prices then.

Edit: That said, Ripple or Stellar may be an even better option for moving money. Once Cryptocurrency becomes so widely used that Bitcoin is just another option, then Bitcoin could drop massively. But we still won't care about price. ;)

Edit2: I would NOT be holding Bitcoin. I would only be using it as a transfer medium.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#34

Post by wyager » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:24 PM UTC

idlewords wrote: post #19

nhaehnle wrote: post #12

This is pretty much a cheap and default comment, but I would be so happy if everybody ( especially websites calling themselves the "DealBook") would start plotting prices on a logarithmic scale.

Currency exchange rates aren't supposed to need a logarithmic scale. That would be a visual equivalent of burying the lede.

>Currency exchange rates aren't supposed to need a logarithmic scale.

That's funny, because if you are doing historical analysis of, say, the dollar, you need a log scale or else the current value of the dollar is pretty much indistinguishable from zero.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#35

Post by TomGullen » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:27 PM UTC

kolev wrote: post #29

I think the true colors of Bitcoin "believers" become pretty obvious when they are all so very preoccupied with the price per piece. I read some pretty ridiculous explanations that volatility is good, because it attracts "investors", and this is supposed to be good for it.

Volatility will attract traders, the only benefit traders offer is liquidity (a marginal benefit).

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#36

Post by wyager » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:27 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #20

louhike wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bitcoin market is worthwhile $6.3B at the current time so its value is not that negligible and might have an economical impact. NB: I'm saying that "it may have" not that "it has".

Assuming every bit coin created still exists is a mistake. Nakamoto might still be in possession of roughly one million bitcoins. But if they where lost then it's a 6.0B commodity. It might just qualify as part of the S&P 500, but that's not really a major hurdle. PS: If bitcoin wants to be a stable currency it may be well served by invalidating any wallet without transactions for a long enough period of time aka 10…

Suggesting "invalidating wallets" indicates a lack of understanding about the underlying system. Wallets are an abstraction; they do not exist in the Bitcoin protocol.

And why should we work to make the Bitcoin market easier to analyze? Our first priority should be to have a strong long-term (well over 10 years) store of value.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#37

Post by kasey_junk » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:29 PM UTC

gexla wrote: post #33

And I'm happy to be someone about to jump fully on the Bitcoin train and never have to think about the price of Bitcoin. As a U.S. citizen living abroad, Bitcoin is now at the intersection of cheapest, fast (but not instant) and most convenient for receiving my money. There are exchanges here which work automatically and have lots of options for me to receive my money. At this point, I can't say there is a better met…

Just as a heads up, you will still need to care about price for volatility risk reasons.

Hedging bitcoin volatility risk is a major concern for its adoption.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#38

Post by valas » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:29 PM UTC

gexla wrote: post #33

And I'm happy to be someone about to jump fully on the Bitcoin train and never have to think about the price of Bitcoin. As a U.S. citizen living abroad, Bitcoin is now at the intersection of cheapest, fast (but not instant) and most convenient for receiving my money. There are exchanges here which work automatically and have lots of options for me to receive my money. At this point, I can't say there is a better met…

Why you don't care about the price? In the end, money is just means to an end, e.g. to improve your life comfort. If one day someone transferred you X amount of potential comfort and then the next day you see you very suddenly have 0.80*X left, aren't you upset?

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#39

Post by the_mitsuhiko » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:31 PM UTC

gexla wrote: post #33

And I'm happy to be someone about to jump fully on the Bitcoin train and never have to think about the price of Bitcoin. As a U.S. citizen living abroad, Bitcoin is now at the intersection of cheapest, fast (but not instant) and most convenient for receiving my money. There are exchanges here which work automatically and have lots of options for me to receive my money. At this point, I can't say there is a better met…

> As a U.S. citizen living abroad, Bitcoin is now at the intersection of cheapest, fast (but not instant) and most convenient for receiving my money. There are exchanges here which work automatically and have lots of options for me to receive my money. At this point, I can't say there is a better method available for me.

How is it cheapest? You have currency conversion on both sides which is a lot more expensive than using the worst bank.

And if you hold bitcoin then the value does interest you.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#40

Post by kolev » Tue, Aug 19, 2014, 4:35 PM UTC

TomGullen wrote: post #35

kolev wrote: post #29

I think the true colors of Bitcoin "believers" become pretty obvious when they are all so very preoccupied with the price per piece. I read some pretty ridiculous explanations that volatility is good, because it attracts "investors", and this is supposed to be good for it.

Volatility will attract traders, the only benefit traders offer is liquidity (a marginal benefit).

I'm not discussing the validity of the ridiculous statement, just quoting "believers" who would find all excuses for their beloved Bitcoin. The term of the week is "flash crash"! The longer people repeat it (i.e. validating it's not a "flash crash" as time passes by and the price is not recovering), the more ridiculous it gets!