Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

dealbook.nytimes.com

1–10 of 85 posts

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#5
post #3

This isn't the end of it either. In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice.

> In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice.

Based on what? Serious question. When people say this about stocks they are either:

1) pulling it out of their ass..

2) They have done some quantitative analysis, based on some sort of CFA teachings.

I'm assuming you are in camp 1 here. Not that there is anything wrong with a "gut feeling", I"m just not going to invest based on it:)

As a question to anyone, what sort of analysis can one do on bitcoin to derive a proper price for it? I'd be open to any quantitative analysis techniques here!

My wheel house is market microstructure, but I'd love to work on a model to value bitcoin with someone if they had any ideas.

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#8
post #3

This isn't the end of it either. In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice.

> In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice. Based on what? Serious question. When people say this about stocks they are either: 1) pulling it out of their ass.. 2) They have done some quantitative analysis, based on some sort of CFA teachings. I'm assuming you are in camp 1 here. Not that there is anything wrong with a "gut feeling", I"m just not going to invest based on it:) As a question to anyone, what sort o…

Based on the same principles that lead us to think it's ok to pay 2000 for rent when it used to be 200.

There is always a new normal.

Edit: Why the downvote?

Re: Bitcoin’s Price Falls 12%, to Lowest Value Since May

#9
I don't like the reasons this article gives for the decrease. I mean if regulations had been the cause of this price drop we would have seen this sort of thing happening in July.

My best guess is that this is caused by fear-based speculators who were trying to get rich on Bitcoin.

Post reply on HN