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Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#81

Post by pakile »

001sky wrote: post #43
natural219 wrote: post #19

I have also ran similar calculations in my head. I think what I'd want to be convinced is a thorough analysis from a mechanical/industrial engineer on how much you can expect to save from a fully electric car on maintenance. The claim I've heard from Tesla is that, since there are much fewer moving parts within an electric motor, the car will last substantially longer. While this makes intuitive sense, I would love t…

The spreadsheet seems light on maintenance numbers. The car is sold in year 8 but hasn't been serviced in several years previous (seems odd). Most people correct for this come the residual. Also, the tires on this car wear out quickly. 120k miles would see at least 6x sets of tires in the back (some are going in under 10k miles), and likely 4 in the front (20x$400=8,000). Also, the Battery is expensive and shoudl be…

Tesla offers the option to purchase 4y of maintenance for $1900, which I included in the model, vs. $600/yr. The options are nearly economical neutral, but I plan to do at least the 1st 4y option. Maintenance also includes brake pad replacement.

I did not include tires or insurance - either for the Tesla or for the other vehicles (Ody, BMW, Volvo). I also didn't include the financial value of safety (though Travis attempted to on the cash flow model), HOV lane access, cargo space, etc.

On the battery, based on the research I've read from existing EV owners, and from my experience as an EV owner for 3y, I'm expecting around 85% of my battery to be available in 8-10y. If a battery swap option is available, I plan to do it around year 15 or so (i.e., ~2030).

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#83

Post by jamesaguilar »

pravda wrote: post #73
jamesaguilar wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This manner of cost estimation is not convincing to me, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone. There are plenty of small things that cost a lot of money, because, perhaps, of the precision or techniques required to manufacture them or their components, or the dearness of the materials that compose the minority of the object. TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a th…

>TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a thousand dollars. (intel i7) In that case, you are paying for the IP, not the silicon. The Tesla motor is a simple design, no magnets, no brushes. I assume they are hand-built. Some, but not too much precision machining required. Think about how much precision goes into a 2TB hard drive that costs $100 retail.

I often come to the wrong conclusion when "just thinking" about it, especially in domains where I am not even a novice. Also, the fact that I don't find listings for 500hp brushless motors for I can see where you get your belief -- I wasn't questioning that it is a reasonable one to hold. But I am asking for evidence that compels me to a confidence level I'd actually bet on. Data will be required. Thought experiments are not sufficient.

(Don't get me wrong, I'm not accusing you for failing to provide data. It may not be publicly available. And it is not your duty to give me this. But that is what I am asking for, and if you don't have it, you don't have what I want, your duty or no.)

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#84

Post by techsupporter »

joezydeco wrote: post #55

Out of curiosity - what does it cost to have an electrician install a 240VAC outlet in your garage? Has anyone out there done it and can give an idea? Teslas can charge off a 110 outlet, but they recommend using the 240 volt faster-charging unit. But most houses don't run 2-phase power out to the garage. And what if you don't own a house? What do apartment and/or house renters do for charging?

My electrician in the Seattle area quoted me $700, including parts and permit, to install a weather-shielded 240V outlet with separate breaker on the outside of my house directly above the electric meter, next to where a car is parked, and on the opposite side of the wall where my breaker panel lives for another purpose. (I don't have a garage so it would have to go outside if I did want to charge a car.) The cost probably goes up another hour of time if a person wants something like this and the breaker panel isn't also located in the garage since wire will need to be pulled.

Apartment dwellers and renters of houses are going to be charging from 120V stations. Considering the uproar just over satellite dishes, I can't see landlords being any more forgiving about tapping into the electrical system of a unit. (And I write this as a former long-time renter.)

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#85

Post by dangrossman »

mikeash wrote: post #26
jesusmichael wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric motor fail on average on par with similarly serviced gas engines. Failure of motor bearings is usually the result of improper mechanical installation causing undesirable forces acting on the bearings, or simply poor maintenance. Bearings should be inspected regularly for lubrication and uncharacteristic noises. Their life expectancy depends on factors previously cited. Most motor vendors typically recommend…

How much does a new electric motor for a Tesla cost versus a new gas motor for a similar car? I'd guess it would be significantly cheaper, but I certainly could be wrong. I don't know that much about cars. Downvoted an honest question stated in a reasonable manner? Come on .

$10-20,000 for a 400hp electric motor. A gas engine would cost a couple hundred bucks.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#86

Post by hatbert »

jesusmichael wrote: post #51
jesusmichael wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement that electric motors have fewer moving parts so they last substantially longer is a fallacy that electric car proponents have been spreading for years. There are still many, moving parts which require servicing and can fail at a rate of similarly serviced gas engines. In fact servicing (rewinding) is quite a labor intensive and expensive operation, given the price of copper or other conductive material…

My source is an industrial electric motor supplier. Google "400hp electric motor" I'm not saying tesla's require oil changes as a gas engine does... oil will last quite a long time when not contaminated by hydrocarbons. But even sealed bearings need to be repacked after so much wear. To parts can't move against on another without generating heat, which will degrade a lubricant and allow wear.

Have you tried looking for motors that aren't designed for 60 Hz operation? I think you might be in for a surprise...

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#87

Post by vacri »

erikstarck wrote: post #78
plg wrote: post #38

What about ruggedness? Up here in (eastern) Canada we have stretches of weeks even months where the temp doesn't go above ... 10F? 15F? (-10 to -15 C) and frequently goes down to -20C or lower (below zero F). How does this affect battery range? Also I don't live in a big city, so who in the hell do I call when there's something wrong with my Tesla and how long do I wait?

If it's good enough for Norway it should work in Canada too, right? Well, one in every ten cars sold (10.8%) in Norway in March was a Tesla... http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/04/7-tesla-norway-facts-wil...

Canada is a "Big Country" nation, and Norway isn't. Short or shortening range will have less of an effect on purchaser decisions.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#88

Post by vl »

dave1619 wrote: post #35

To help some understand why the Model S could be "cheaper" to own vs a Honda Odyssey it's important to understand a few factors: 1. Low fuel costs - electricity is way cheaper than gas and when you factor in gas savings over 8 years, you get substantial savings (ie., $20k over 8 years if driving 15k miles a year, of course depends on gas prices and electricity prices). 2. Low maintenance costs - there's no oil change…

Re: 3 & 4

Or, battery packs will degrade and people would not value them at all.

And, more importantly it's very unlikely that Model S will hold any residual at all, especially in 8 years - it's essentially version 1 of technology (with Roadster being beta version). In 8 years Tesla itself will have version 3, or may be even 4, and version 1 will be just obsolete. Notice how people buy new Camrys instead of 8 year-old 740s.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#89

Post by oasisbob »

techsupporter wrote: post #84
joezydeco wrote: post #55

Out of curiosity - what does it cost to have an electrician install a 240VAC outlet in your garage? Has anyone out there done it and can give an idea? Teslas can charge off a 110 outlet, but they recommend using the 240 volt faster-charging unit. But most houses don't run 2-phase power out to the garage. And what if you don't own a house? What do apartment and/or house renters do for charging?

My electrician in the Seattle area quoted me $700, including parts and permit, to install a weather-shielded 240V outlet with separate breaker on the outside of my house directly above the electric meter, next to where a car is parked, and on the opposite side of the wall where my breaker panel lives for another purpose. (I don't have a garage so it would have to go outside if I did want to charge a car.) The cost pr…

For what it's worth, at least renters have some protection from the FCC (on paper, at least) when it comes to antennas:

"The OTARD rule allows local governments, community associations and landlords to enforce restrictions that do not impair the installation, maintenance or use of the types of antennas described above [...]"

http://www.neighborhoodlink.com/article/Association/FCC_Sate...

Given that many areas mandate minimum parking requirements for development, I don't find it too hard to imagine the same for charging. (And as a long-term renter, I'm sure it'll still be a pain in the ass for years to come.)

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#90

Post by leoedin »

jesusmichael wrote: post #51
jesusmichael wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement that electric motors have fewer moving parts so they last substantially longer is a fallacy that electric car proponents have been spreading for years. There are still many, moving parts which require servicing and can fail at a rate of similarly serviced gas engines. In fact servicing (rewinding) is quite a labor intensive and expensive operation, given the price of copper or other conductive material…

My source is an industrial electric motor supplier. Google "400hp electric motor" I'm not saying tesla's require oil changes as a gas engine does... oil will last quite a long time when not contaminated by hydrocarbons. But even sealed bearings need to be repacked after so much wear. To parts can't move against on another without generating heat, which will degrade a lubricant and allow wear.

The mistake you're making is assuming that the single unit price of a low volume device like an industrial electric motor in any way reflects its component costs. High tech low volume engineering is dominated by R&D costs, one off manufacturing costs and margin. You could apply your logic (it would cost me $25,000 to buy one so therefore it costs Tesla that as well) to almost any item of consumer electronics and you'd find that your cost estimation was an order of magnitude (at least) above the retail price of a completed device. Try pricing a washing machine based on the cost of its component parts online - you won't be able to do it for anywhere near the cost in store.

When you build large numbers of integrated devices (be they washing machines, cars or cell phones), individual unit costs of components are always much lower. That's why we mass produce things.

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