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How China Fooled the World [video]

bbc.co.uk

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Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#61

Post by seanmcdirmid »

est wrote: post #56
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ex-pat since 2007 here. Change is happening quite slowly, internal consumption is still moribund as people save to cover retirement and health expenses (social insurance isn't very strong). Even a big city like Beijing has a lot of fairly empty malls, and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. China does have better infrastructure than say India, and its long te…

> and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. Malls you feel wwwaaaay over-crowded today were once empty for like 5-8 years in the 90s or 80s. Google for 烂尾楼 and you'll find a ton.

Strange. In Beijing its the opposite, the old malls dry up as soon as the new ones open. Jongrongjie is a good example.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#62

Post by ekianjo »

LiweiZ wrote: post #54
tokenadult wrote: post #30

How many of the people commenting here read the Chinese-language press? (I mean, publications in the Chinese language from either inside or outside the region where the Communist Party of China exercises prior restraint on publication.) The one thing I've learned from studying the language, history, and culture of China since 1975 is that almost everyone who doesn't know the language is full of crazy ideas about Chin…

Native Chinese here. I guess the best way is to apply those better tools for thinking to the Chinese context. To be honest, I don't think there is much information in Chinese politics and economy worth reading. The tools we use are outdated. The information(meta data) we can get is actually very limited and very distorted. The knowledge and how people perceive the world are far behind those in developed countries. Wh…

> Domestic consumer market growth does have a chance to save us, that was what I thought the best way out when I was younger. But that would never happen, when you have some understanding how the nation's stakeholders operate. This is a topic that is too big to discuss here.

I understand you do not want to discuss it here, but can you briefly explain why this would never happen ? This is a very interesting point.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#63

Post by hangonhn »

AJ007 wrote: post #48
hangonhn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone say it for long enough, they're bound to be right one day. It's the same about the decline of the US. All we can do is judge them on a case-by-case basis. In this case, it's really hard to judge because the threat, similar to the US credit crisis, is hard to measure. China has a really sizable foreign reserve that some people think will buffer any economic crisis. However, some estimates of the shadow bank…

The problem with leverage is that you don't need a 100% failure to be wiped out. This is why the US crises was not very surprising, the investment banks had upwards of 1:30 leverage ratios. Similar things were happening to real estate investors. So no, not all of the loans will go bad. But, some go bad. First prices stop growing. No growth? Why borrow to buy? Next prices drop, and then suddenly a lot of loans that sh…

Yes a good point.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#64

Post by seoguru »

I believe the Chinese currency is non convertible and free floating, if their "debts" are denominated in their own currency, the basis for this story is flawed. The producer should take 10 minutes for a little education from Bill Mitchell: http://goo.gl/zMlB1X I wish U.S. policy makers understood our monetary system.

It does sound like China has problem with inequality which hopefully they will address.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#65

Post by LiweiZ »

ekianjo wrote: post #62
LiweiZ wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Native Chinese here. I guess the best way is to apply those better tools for thinking to the Chinese context. To be honest, I don't think there is much information in Chinese politics and economy worth reading. The tools we use are outdated. The information(meta data) we can get is actually very limited and very distorted. The knowledge and how people perceive the world are far behind those in developed countries. Wh…

> Domestic consumer market growth does have a chance to save us, that was what I thought the best way out when I was younger. But that would never happen, when you have some understanding how the nation's stakeholders operate. This is a topic that is too big to discuss here. I understand you do not want to discuss it here, but can you briefly explain why this would never happen ? This is a very interesting point.

One dimension you can look into is the percentage the county's administrators get from average people's income and their consumption. I don't know if there is anything public in English. But I can tell you it's very very high. And the social safe net is not reliable in the long run. That's why people need savings in the bank.

Another key dimension is to have some knowledge about the party that rules China. As an organization, it is quite efficient in some straightforward tasks. However, sometimes there are tasks that require more advanced way to organize people. Any organization has its limitation. And most organizations have very limited capability to adapt/evolve. The way to form the organization is the biggest obstacle. Once this is understood, everything becomes clear.

Sorry that I have not given a clear answer but some clues. The tools I recommend are some basic understanding of concepts in organization behavior, complex system(such as complexity theory), Austrian school economics and, of course, some history of the party, how it operated economically from its early days.

No need to get deep in the tools I listed, just have some ideas of how they perceive the world. These tools are not perfect. But with them, we may have a better view of the thing we want to know. Hope this helps.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#66

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ksec wrote: post #59
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinadaily often runs editorials directly translated from Chinese. They are quite bizarre and often just diatribes. My wife is a Chinese but has no respect for the press, so doesn't even bother reading those articles anymore (most young Chinese are the same). I've been in China for 6+ years now, I have expat friends who have been here for 10+ (which is an old hand these days). We aren't incredibly divergent in our th…

But honestly, i dont even see that as problem with China alone. Heck today it is hard to find ANY decent newspaper that are unbiased. ( In the Context of Chinese and English only ). I dont think they are crazy ideas. Any country, be it US, UK, Japan or China have their own set of problems. Although I do generally agree that the Western World dont generally always understand the language and culture difference.

Diatribes authored by public officials is quite unique in the category of those countries that haven't failed. It has nothing to do with cultural differences and everything to do with the party, which still thinks in a very authoritarian way even if that power is slipping away. There is no real public debate, only harmony; there is no seeing or even just explaining both sides, only a forceful statement that their side is right.

I suggest reading ChinaDaily often...it gives you a good perspective into what the government is thinking at least, and if you read it as a contrarian, it is good to get a heads up on what is coming when they deny something specifically (e.g. Beijing will not restrict license plates 2 months before they did).

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#67

Post by seanmcdirmid »

marukokinno wrote: post #39
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese internal economy is not as robust as its export economy, and shifting the economy to one based on consumption is an important goal to making it actually healthy. Right now, people just save or invest...and the investments are limited to some shady financial products and...real estate.

>>and the investments are limited to some shady financial products and...real estate. This is in Beijing , or Hebei, Henan and the 3 northern provinces. At the Pearl River Delta and the Shanghai-Zhejiang-Jiangsu triangle the investment is in production.

People from Wenzhou basically invented highly leveraged real estate speculation.

Also, as a normal person without guanxi, you can't really get access to the sure bet industrial investments, and participating in shadow lending is very risky.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#69

Post by austinz »

bobjordan wrote: post #27

An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall . However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century. For exampl…

A couple of links to support your hypothesis:

- http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/business/global/high-speed...

- http://www.economist.com/news/china/21592628-china-opens-boo...

- http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/chinas-e...

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#70

Post by contingencies »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #32
contingencies wrote: post #21

About time for an HN China meetup? Who wants to come visit Yunnan for some clean air and nature? :)

The last time I was in Kunming, the air wasn't exactly clean.

Sure, Kunming is the provincial capital so a worst case example. The rest of the province is pretty damn clean, and being semi-rural to outright wilderness much cleaner in most cases than western cities. Personally I'm on the next lake over... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Fuxian ... it's like Kunming 15 years ago. We still have horse-drawn carts, and you can go fishing, horseriding, or paragliding with ease. We also have some of the oldest fossils in the world, a submerged neolithic village and a not-so-secret Chinese navy submarine testing base.
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