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How China Fooled the World [video]

bbc.co.uk

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Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#31

Post by seanmcdirmid »

marukokinno wrote: post #24
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, back in 2007 someone wrote: Every year, for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of an imminent housing crash. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. ... Bubbles are bubbles until they pop. A lot of infrastructure in China is under utilized, and let's not even get started on empty shopping malls and apartment buildings, even here in Beijing! Whether th…

chinese dont live on credit like americans, they live for saving. The financial market is slightly more regulated than the american financial market, aswell.

Exactly. Most of the money is kept in saving accounts with interest rates that are far below inflation. And what do you think the banks are doing with that money?

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#33

Post by seanmcdirmid »

bobjordan wrote: post #27

An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall . However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century. For exampl…

Ex-pat since 2007 here. Change is happening quite slowly, internal consumption is still moribund as people save to cover retirement and health expenses (social insurance isn't very strong). Even a big city like Beijing has a lot of fairly empty malls, and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty.

China does have better infrastructure than say India, and its long term outlook is good. But there are definitely challenges in this and the next few years to get through.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#34

Post by riggins »

bobjordan wrote: post #27

An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall . However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century. For exampl…

overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status

the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#35

Post by marukokinno »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #33
bobjordan wrote: post #27

An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall . However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century. For exampl…

Ex-pat since 2007 here. Change is happening quite slowly, internal consumption is still moribund as people save to cover retirement and health expenses (social insurance isn't very strong). Even a big city like Beijing has a lot of fairly empty malls, and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. China does have better infrastructure than say India, and its long te…

>>internal consumption is still moribund Do you ever go to the supermarkets? Every time I go to eat outside in the evening at the mall, I have to wait a line of at least 5 numbers to get a table, and I live in the suburbs, very far from downtown.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#36

Post by ekianjo »

riggins wrote: post #34
bobjordan wrote: post #27

An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall . However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century. For exampl…

overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.

> the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.

Isn't it what the US has been claiming all the time? With the FDR New Deal theory ?

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#37

Post by chao- »

tokenadult wrote: post #30

How many of the people commenting here read the Chinese-language press? (I mean, publications in the Chinese language from either inside or outside the region where the Communist Party of China exercises prior restraint on publication.) The one thing I've learned from studying the language, history, and culture of China since 1975 is that almost everyone who doesn't know the language is full of crazy ideas about Chin…

Could you point out or give examples of some of these crazy ideas? For the sake of us who assume we know nothing, and wouldn't know how to tell a crazy idea from an unconventional-yet-reasonable one. No sarcasm intended and I'm sure an exhaustive list is a bit much to ask, but I would be interested to read even a few examples and/or explanations.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#38

Post by seanmcdirmid »

marukokinno wrote: post #35
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ex-pat since 2007 here. Change is happening quite slowly, internal consumption is still moribund as people save to cover retirement and health expenses (social insurance isn't very strong). Even a big city like Beijing has a lot of fairly empty malls, and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. China does have better infrastructure than say India, and its long te…

>>internal consumption is still moribund Do you ever go to the supermarkets? Every time I go to eat outside in the evening at the mall, I have to wait a line of at least 5 numbers to get a table, and I live in the suburbs, very far from downtown.

Everything is crowded in China, what does that prove? That consumption of food happens is of no doubt, but you have to save like crazy for everything else. I have a few years of salary saved up in the bank since there is absolutely nothing to buy except overpriced real estate and cars (but then I'd have to join the lottery for a plate).

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#39

Post by marukokinno »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #28
Zigurd wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that Chinese make stuff people buy. The US housing bubble was economic onanism.

The Chinese internal economy is not as robust as its export economy, and shifting the economy to one based on consumption is an important goal to making it actually healthy. Right now, people just save or invest...and the investments are limited to some shady financial products and...real estate.

>>and the investments are limited to some shady financial products and...real estate. This is in Beijing , or Hebei, Henan and the 3 northern provinces. At the Pearl River Delta and the Shanghai-Zhejiang-Jiangsu triangle the investment is in production.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#40

Post by AJ007 »

marukokinno wrote: post #19
radicaldreamer wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This trope is just not true, but people keep bringing it up when discussion of China's enormous debt growth comes up. https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/442838642974007296

Last time I checked, China had 1 Trillion dollars in reserves. Chinese people is not living on credit cards, actually quite the opposite, they save a lot, even the little waitress at the cheap restaurant has a lot of savings. Every year, at spring festival, hundreds of millions of young chinese give their savings to their parents to keep, and those old people can save! I dont know where is the debt guys are talking a…

You can lose your savings from a bank default, this happened to some weak banks in the US. You go to withdraw your money it is not there.

You can lose your saving from currency devaluation. In order to pay off debt, a government can issue new currency (debt denominated in its own currency; in Eurozone countries they can only raise taxes and cut spending to pay off debt.) Your savings don't matter because there is so much more money. An old unit of currency is equal to new units.

We can't be certain of Chinese banks' liabilities but it is something you can keep an eye on in the Western press, if blocked locally ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-14/china-banks-bad-loa... )

If I was Chinese, I would not be too concerned as long as I did not have liabilities for my business or money deposited in a bad bank. If yes to either of these, you are at risk of losing everything.

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