About time for an HN China meetup? Who wants to come visit Yunnan for some clean air and nature? :)
How China Fooled the World [video]
21–30 of 79 posts
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#22Every year , for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of the imminent Chinese economy collapse. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. The guys have no idea what they are talking about. The education effort is as huge as the infrastructure building effort, and it will bring its benefits. At some point the growing will slow down; at some point it will be 1%…
It's a mistake to believe that either China's will continue along uninterrupted or that it will fall into severe crisis. The reality is that China has a strong economy AND also a very flawed and troubled economy (India has similar problems but in a different way).
The result will probably be that China's growth will at some point stall out before reaching developed world levels and they will probably be faced with some manner of serious problems at a level less than countrywide existential crisis.
Also, as to "predictions being proven wrong", remember that every year during the 2000s many people predicted that the housing market would implode and lead to a major economic crisis. They were "proven wrong" every year until it actually happened.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of this opportunistic construction isn't done very well, and often its just a form of money laundering (build this, charge a lot, do a very crappy job, lots of pockets are padded). Many of these buildings will be torn down before they are ever used; every few months there is a scandal where this actually happens.
Are there any statistics of buildings collapsing? I've seen the "tipped over building" picture, and heard some other sketchy stories but its all anecdotal.
If statistics exist, I'm sure they are covered under the state secrets law.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#24Every year , for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of the imminent Chinese economy collapse. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. The guys have no idea what they are talking about. The education effort is as huge as the infrastructure building effort, and it will bring its benefits. At some point the growing will slow down; at some point it will be 1%…
Hey, back in 2007 someone wrote: Every year, for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of an imminent housing crash. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. ... Bubbles are bubbles until they pop. A lot of infrastructure in China is under utilized, and let's not even get started on empty shopping malls and apartment buildings, even here in Beijing! Whether th…
chinese dont live on credit like americans, they live for saving. The financial market is slightly more regulated than the american financial market, aswell.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
This trope is just not true, but people keep bringing it up when discussion of China's enormous debt growth comes up. https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/442838642974007296
Last time I checked, China had 1 Trillion dollars in reserves. Chinese people is not living on credit cards, actually quite the opposite, they save a lot, even the little waitress at the cheap restaurant has a lot of savings. Every year, at spring festival, hundreds of millions of young chinese give their savings to their parents to keep, and those old people can save! I dont know where is the debt guys are talking a…
The US economy was badly hurt by household debt because household spending fuels the US economy, this is not the case for the Chinese economy. An 8x increase in corporate debt in China in the last 5 years means something in an economy driven by industrial production instead of individual consumption. I do not know exactly what it means but I suspect there is some grounds for believing it may not be entirely good.
Chinese households might be less inclined to take on debt, but they've still managed to rack up about 30+% of GDP worth, so they are working on it.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#26Every year , for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of the imminent Chinese economy collapse. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. The guys have no idea what they are talking about. The education effort is as huge as the infrastructure building effort, and it will bring its benefits. At some point the growing will slow down; at some point it will be 1%…
Hey, back in 2007 someone wrote: Every year, for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of an imminent housing crash. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. ... Bubbles are bubbles until they pop. A lot of infrastructure in China is under utilized, and let's not even get started on empty shopping malls and apartment buildings, even here in Beijing! Whether th…
Except that Chinese make stuff people buy. The US housing bubble was economic onanism.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#27An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years.
Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall.
However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century.
For example, within 5 more years the entire of Guangdong Province will be connected by high speed rail and subway - meaning 100 million people and businesses will be connected by public transit with no more than a 2 hour ride. There is already a critical mass of manufacturing capability here, and with that added layer of network infrastructure, even if labor costs rise 100% YOY to match USA and Germany in a decade, Guangdong China will still be the worlds factory.
Furthermore, the internal consumption machine of 1.3B people is undeniably ramping up now. They are spending money, the largest middle class on the planet is clearly taking shape, and lives are measurably improving all around me.
There may be a few bumps in the road but there will be no collapse.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hey, back in 2007 someone wrote: Every year, for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of an imminent housing crash. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. ... Bubbles are bubbles until they pop. A lot of infrastructure in China is under utilized, and let's not even get started on empty shopping malls and apartment buildings, even here in Beijing! Whether th…
Except that Chinese make stuff people buy. The US housing bubble was economic onanism.
The Chinese internal economy is not as robust as its export economy, and shifting the economy to one based on consumption is an important goal to making it actually healthy. Right now, people just save or invest...and the investments are limited to some shady financial products and...real estate.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#29China owns part of many industries, Governments that start having issues start selling their stakes and come up with plenty of money. Like everyone I am fascinated with China building new cities where no one lives, but they are going to totally get away with it and come out the other side unharmed.
I saw an explanation somewhere for the ghost cities. The CCP realizes that construction labor there is currently very cheap, land is cheap (in terms of political capital to displace people --- wealthier citizens will make it more expensive to displace them), and materials are relatively cheap. As they develop further, all three cost inputs will only get more expensive. So the CCP is deliberately allowing the rapid de…
The result you point to, in terms of taking up overdevelopment slack due to China's urbanization having a long way to go yet, may turn out to be true. But it's generous to say anyone anticipated that in building these white elephant projects.
China's economic growth will cover numerous sins. As will the oil boom in the US. But they're still sins.
Re: How China Fooled the World [video]
#30How many of the people commenting here read the Chinese-language press? (I mean, publications in the Chinese language from either inside or outside the region where the Communist Party of China exercises prior restraint on publication.) The one thing I've learned from studying the language, history, and culture of China since 1975 is that almost everyone who doesn't know the language is full of crazy ideas about China, even if they live there.