Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

How China Fooled the World [video]

bbc.co.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 79 posts

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#41

Post by anigbrowl »

riggins wrote: post #34
bobjordan wrote: post #27

An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall . However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century. For exampl…

overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.

Well obviously you could spend wastefully, but try being economically dominant without infrastructure.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#42

Post by seanmcdirmid »

tokenadult wrote: post #30

How many of the people commenting here read the Chinese-language press? (I mean, publications in the Chinese language from either inside or outside the region where the Communist Party of China exercises prior restraint on publication.) The one thing I've learned from studying the language, history, and culture of China since 1975 is that almost everyone who doesn't know the language is full of crazy ideas about Chin…

Chinadaily often runs editorials directly translated from Chinese. They are quite bizarre and often just diatribes. My wife is a Chinese but has no respect for the press, so doesn't even bother reading those articles anymore (most young Chinese are the same).

I've been in China for 6+ years now, I have expat friends who have been here for 10+ (which is an old hand these days). We aren't incredibly divergent in our thinking. Chinese have different viewpoints, but this is primarily cultural rather than linguistic.

But if you truly want an unbiased view of China, read a Taiwanese newspaper :)

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#43

Post by AJ007 »

ekianjo wrote: post #36
riggins wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.

> the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me. Isn't it what the US has been claiming all the time? With the FDR New Deal theory ?

This is what Japan has been doing since their dominance in the 1980's fizzled out. In both the US/FDR case and Japan's, I believe the infrastructure spending was seen as a way to re-ignite growth while also creating something long lasting.

There certainly is some truth to the long lasting piece. A country with poor infrastructure will have a very difficult time growing. What is controversial is building things either few people use or are far more expensive than they should be. On the flip side, infrastructure has to be serviced to remain viable. In addition to using money that is "borrowed" one way or the other, the maintenance cost is created as well. Easy to get carried away.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#45

Post by adventured »

marukokinno wrote: post #24
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, back in 2007 someone wrote: Every year, for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of an imminent housing crash. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. ... Bubbles are bubbles until they pop. A lot of infrastructure in China is under utilized, and let's not even get started on empty shopping malls and apartment buildings, even here in Beijing! Whether th…

chinese dont live on credit like americans, they live for saving. The financial market is slightly more regulated than the american financial market, aswell.

China is in fact buried in a massive pile of debt, from corporate to muni to personal, that they will never be able to climb out from under. And they've had to pile on ever larger amounts of debt just to keep faking the 'growth.' The notion of China being the land of savings and low debt is completely a myth.

"Meet China's Housing Debt Slaves"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/china-housing-slave...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/meet-chinas-housing...

"In the meantime, some investors are increasingly alarmed by the speed at which local governments are piling on debt to pay for public works. China's state auditor said in its report on Monday that local governments had total outstanding debt of 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.96 trillion), including contingent liabilities and debt guarantees, at the end of June."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/31/us-china-debt-anal...

"A report by Nomura said Thursday that Chinese municipal debt, a focal point of major concern about the country’s economy, had grown at an alarming 39 percent clip in recent years."

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/27/business/global/report-war...

"China's overall debt-to-GDP ratio has sprung to over 200% from about 120% in five years. Most of this is from local governments and state-supported companies."

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230455400...

China's corporations are drowning in debt, at 151% debt to GDP ratio, the highest basically in the major industrial world. Twice as high as America's ratio.

http://i.imgur.com/t8bIpfS.jpg

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#46

Post by judk »

ekianjo wrote: post #36
riggins wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.

> the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me. Isn't it what the US has been claiming all the time? With the FDR New Deal theory ?

New Deal built stuff people needed, not just statues of shopping malls.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#48

Post by AJ007 »

hangonhn wrote: post #18
marukokinno wrote: post #8

Every year , for the last 20 years, many articles say that we can be sure of the imminent Chinese economy collapse. Then every year they are proven wrong. This is just one more of these articles. The guys have no idea what they are talking about. The education effort is as huge as the infrastructure building effort, and it will bring its benefits. At some point the growing will slow down; at some point it will be 1%…

If someone say it for long enough, they're bound to be right one day. It's the same about the decline of the US. All we can do is judge them on a case-by-case basis. In this case, it's really hard to judge because the threat, similar to the US credit crisis, is hard to measure. China has a really sizable foreign reserve that some people think will buffer any economic crisis. However, some estimates of the shadow bank…

The problem with leverage is that you don't need a 100% failure to be wiped out. This is why the US crises was not very surprising, the investment banks had upwards of 1:30 leverage ratios. Similar things were happening to real estate investors.

So no, not all of the loans will go bad. But, some go bad. First prices stop growing. No growth? Why borrow to buy? Next prices drop, and then suddenly a lot of loans that should have been ok are worth far more than the underlying assets. Then it is just a big mess.

Think of a credit bubble as a game of musical chairs. The people who borrow money at the end always lose (also the ones that lend money.)

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#49

Post by adventured »

marukokinno wrote: post #19
radicaldreamer wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This trope is just not true, but people keep bringing it up when discussion of China's enormous debt growth comes up. https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/442838642974007296

Last time I checked, China had 1 Trillion dollars in reserves. Chinese people is not living on credit cards, actually quite the opposite, they save a lot, even the little waitress at the cheap restaurant has a lot of savings. Every year, at spring festival, hundreds of millions of young chinese give their savings to their parents to keep, and those old people can save! I dont know where is the debt guys are talking a…

China has $3 trillion in reserves, and it's completely meaningless when stacked against their rapidly expanding pile of debt. China is one of the most indebted nations, and to keep their GDP growth going they have to keep adding ever larger sums of debt. The amount of growth they get from $1 of capital has crashed the last six years. It's obvious how it's going to end: either in a very long period of dire stagnation, or crash.

Re: How China Fooled the World [video]

#50

Post by marukokinno »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #38
marukokinno wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>internal consumption is still moribund Do you ever go to the supermarkets? Every time I go to eat outside in the evening at the mall, I have to wait a line of at least 5 numbers to get a table, and I live in the suburbs, very far from downtown.

Everything is crowded in China, what does that prove? That consumption of food happens is of no doubt, but you have to save like crazy for everything else. I have a few years of salary saved up in the bank since there is absolutely nothing to buy except overpriced real estate and cars (but then I'd have to join the lottery for a plate).

Taobao, 360.com and the likes are selling Billions and Billions trough the internet, massive amount of internet consumption, home appliances, electronics, clothes. Thats not food nor real state and cars
Post reply on HN