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How Long Have I Got Left?

nytimes.com

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Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#161

Post by [deleted] »

vanderZwan wrote: post #68
thomasz wrote: post #63

> We never cite detailed statistics, and usually advise against Googling survival numbers, assuming the average patient doesn’t possess a nuanced understanding of statistics When I was at the receiving end of that talk, this attitude made me incredibly angry. They know exactly that we will look up those numbers, they are just too afraid to have a honest discussion with us. People make very bad decisions because those…

And would you suggest doctors would take two to three extra hours with every patient to work them through a basic statistics class which still isn't sufficient to explain the concept?

[deleted]

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#162

Post by nbouscal »

sdegutis wrote: post #151
nbouscal wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no other kind of faith. Faith literally means "belief without evidence."

That's not my definition of faith. But let's not get hung up on semantics and disagreements about definitions. The point I was making is that there is a good deal of evidence, but it also requires a little belief in something that you can't absolutely prove.

I don't want to debate with you; I've done more than my share of religious debates in my life and no longer find any joy in them. I also completely agree that debating definitions is rarely useful. I will point out, though, that nobody claims to have faith that the Earth revolves around the Sun, or that the sky is blue. "Faith" connotes a leap; I understand that as a leap from the evidence to the conclusion, covering a gap that cannot be covered by logical reasoning. It's that leap that I take issue with, regardless of which word you choose to label it with.

You've repeatedly recommended a book of apologetics throughout the thread. If I could make a recommendation in turn: Critique of Religion and Philosophy, by Walter Kaufmann. I think it can give you much to think about, and from a reasonably friendly perspective.

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#163

Post by [deleted] »

300bps wrote: post #159
chroma wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not entirely sure how your reply connects to my comment. Are you arguing that death isn't bad? If so, try pointing the argument at someone else: "The universe existed for billions of years and did just fine without you. It will probably be good for eons after you're gone. And the funny thing is, I have never lost a minute of sleep over your non-existence for those initial billions of years." It sounds both psycho…

Are you arguing that death isn't bad? I'm actually quoting many philosophers and authors that have said the same thing and for which I agree. For example: http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/25647-i-do-not-fear-death-i-... Essentially, it didn't bother you that you didn't exist 100 years ago. Think hard about why it bothers you that you won't exist 100 years from now. In 200 years, nobody will remember you. In 1,000 year…

[deleted]

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#164

Post by ggreer »

[deleted] wrote: post #163
300bps wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you arguing that death isn't bad? I'm actually quoting many philosophers and authors that have said the same thing and for which I agree. For example: http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/25647-i-do-not-fear-death-i-... Essentially, it didn't bother you that you didn't exist 100 years ago. Think hard about why it bothers you that you won't exist 100 years from now. In 200 years, nobody will remember you. In 1,000 year…

[deleted]

Please stop. (Edit: Thank you.)

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#165

Post by larrys »

bladedtoys wrote: post #120
thejteam wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many doctors also don't have a nuanced understanding of statistics. They can quote you the survival numbers you can read elsewhere and they can quote you other people's interpretation of them, but if you have a question that deviates from the literature they are familiar with they may not be able to provide additional interpretation. Do medical schools teach stats? I know a couple of doctors(General Practitioners) th…

If they get such classes, they sleep through them and have for decades. There are studies (Eddy 1982; Gigerenzer and Hoffrage 1995) that show only a small percent of physicians understand even basic statistics. Just Google same and you'll get a zillion links to freshman college homework discussing the problem.

Perhaps it's not as important as the other things they need to learn. While I don't know the answer I wouldn't assume that having a basic understanding of statistics is better than other things they are memorizing and understanding. (It could be but you can't assume that. Similar to feature creep with products or software.)

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#166

Post by 300bps »

kirse wrote: post #135
300bps wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bible makes as much sense as most ancient literature. Key difference is that rational people in 2014 aren't claiming that Zeus may strike you down with a lightning bolt or thinking that Gilgamesh was divinely inspired. The old testament is very into offspring and private property Really? It just seems like a mish-mash of things nobody today would find acceptable. It advocates slavery in many places. Example: http…

What else do you expect? You're not supposed to find most of it acceptable. Why are you surprised when a book that records the fall of man into sin and depravity is both shocking and FULL of stories of man pushing the bounds of depravity? It is brutally authentic and you should be reeling at the accounts of the depths of what mankind has done to himself. The Bible doesn't "advocate" anything by those verses. Surely y…

It's so obvious you haven't read the full bible, or even any of the links I gave. The very first link is where "The angel of the LORD" said to go back into slavery. So you blame that on men.

This is why it is pointless to discuss anything with zealots. Your brains turn off for this topic.

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#167

Post by wpietri »

1stop wrote: post #75
wpietri wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way I resolve it: meaning is something we construct. So yes, there's no Meaning of Life written in the stars, no absolute truth there. But you can make as much meaning as you need. Personally, I like that better. If somebody tried to tell me the One True Meaning of Life, the first thing I'd do is argue with 'em. This way I get to argue with myself.

I think you misinterpret the question. It's not "What is the meaning of my/your life?" - it's "What is the meaning of life?" or put another way: "Why does life exist? and why should/does it continue?"

No, I understood the question. My answer stays the same.

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#168

Post by wpietri »

kaoD wrote: post #130
1stop wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you misinterpret the question. It's not "What is the meaning of my/your life?" - it's "What is the meaning of life?" or put another way: "Why does life exist? and why should/does it continue?"

I think that's not the question. Things don't have a meaning by themselves. What does hydrogen mean?

Yes, exactly.

To me, meaning is a thing where we try to reconstruct the intentions of other conscious entities. "What does her sentence mean?" is a legitimate use of that. The equivalent, "What does she mean by that sentence?" is clearer.

It can be useful (or at least fun) to apply our machinery for creating and extracting meaning for other purposes. But misapplying a tool puts you closer to the limits where the tool gives problematic results. When I use a butter knife as a screwdriver or a pry bar, I shouldn't be so surprised when I scratch or break something. If I ask, "What do planets mean?" and end up with astrology, that's a sign I've pushed the tool too far.

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#169

Post by mkempe »

nicolethenerd wrote: post #86
aaronsnoswell wrote: post #80

I don't understand how everyone here was able to read this article - I browse to that link and get a message telling me it is locked behind a paywall, requiring my subscription before I can read it. Do all HN readers also subscribe to the NY Times?

You should get 10 free articles a month before the paywall appears. I'm guessing most HN readers haven't used up their quota yet.

How to read the article: Search for the article's title in Google (hint: select the title in the non-working NYT URL, dashes are fine), and the link from Google's (probably) top result to NYT will let you in, freely.

Re: How Long Have I Got Left?

#170

Post by rayiner »

larrys wrote: post #165
bladedtoys wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they get such classes, they sleep through them and have for decades. There are studies (Eddy 1982; Gigerenzer and Hoffrage 1995) that show only a small percent of physicians understand even basic statistics. Just Google same and you'll get a zillion links to freshman college homework discussing the problem.

Perhaps it's not as important as the other things they need to learn. While I don't know the answer I wouldn't assume that having a basic understanding of statistics is better than other things they are memorizing and understanding. (It could be but you can't assume that. Similar to feature creep with products or software.)

A basic understanding of statistics is crucial to being a doctor. When my wife was pregnant, we were faced with decisions like whether to get genetic testing and whether to breastfeed, but were frustrated to deal with statistical incompetence from doctors and nurses who couldn't explain the consequences of courses of action except in child-like "do this" and "don't do this" ways. One nurse, when discussing IUDs, quoted a failure rate by itself as a percentage. When we asked about the time frame, not only did she not know it, but she couldn't understand why a failure percentage was meaningless without reference to a time frame. And forget about being able to reason through the research on alcohol exposure in pregnancy or breastfeeding.
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