Live data from Hacker News

A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

dealbook.nytimes.com

331–340 of 431 posts

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#331
post #251
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there's no need to convert them. Have you tried paying your taxes in Bitcoin? The IRS (or regional equivalent) is not going to accept bitcoin any time soon and they will want you to pay taxes on, for example, profits. There is a need to convert, don't believe otherwise.

No, but I imagine coinbase has. As will many other people who accept bitcoin payments.

It doesn't matter, you still have to pay your taxes in USD. Even if you earned your salary in bitcoins you would have to convert some to USD in order to pay your taxes.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#332
post #41

I think Bitcoin will succeed like gold has succeeded--as a highly liquid tradable commodity, which can be used for transactions as a form of barter. It's already succeeding in this way. It won't succeed as a currency because it can't maintain a stable value--again, just like gold.

So your choices are to maintain cash resertves in USD and take a guaranteed 2% inflation loss on the chin, or keep it in Bitcoin with unpredictable, but upward trending movement (as coins are removed from the pool with loss, death, etc.). I'm not sure that decision is so clear-cut.

Most people don't keep significant cash reserves, and that's a good thing. Dollars that people sit on are lazy dollars. At the very least, you can sink them in treasury bonds and the US government will put them to use -- but that debt is still denominated in dollars.

At best, Bitcoin will end up as yet another option for investment. The deflationary trend and lack of legal tender status make it a total nonstarter as a currency.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#333
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Debt" really is good, especially if you disregard what he writes about >1950 where he messed up a few factual assertions. It's not so much that "paying taxes in a currency helps a currency" - it's that forcing people to pay taxes in a particular currency or go to jail creates demand for that currency, which percolates through the economy (especially if they're concurrently giving it out when they're obliged to pay s…

> forcing people to pay taxes in a particular currency or go to jail creates demand for that currency This is true. But, I don't think it backs up your original point: > the sine qua non of "money" is that you can pay taxes with it. Reworded to non-latin, I believe this is saying that without taxes there can be no money. That just seems completely ludicrous. Sure, taxes increase demand for money, but that is a far st…

what he really means, despite the use of "sine qua non", is that the vast vast majority of people really don't like dealing with more than one currency, and if their government uses a given currency, most people will use it because they have to pay taxes with it.

> Sure, taxes increase demand for money, but that is a far stretch from saying money can't exist without taxes

it really depends what you mean by "money". prior to government meddling in markets, most historical evidence points to economies relying on ad-hoc, non-denominated credit systems (aka, i can drink at the tavern all year because the barkeep knows i'll give him some of my grain come harvest time). these tabs were, notably, not denominated in an abstract currency. it wasn't "you've spent 16oz of gold at the bar this year", it was just "you've had a lot to drink, you better give me a good portion of your harvest".

you only really start seeing professional merchants and money-based trade after currency has been standardized by axial age governments for the purposes of funding their armies. to fund the armies, governments would mint money out of precious metal reserves, pay the army, and require the coins back from the population at large. all of a sudden, the whole population is now legally required to, in some manner, economically service the army (as they are the vehicle through which all coinage enters the market). the armies would then take over neighboring countries, enslave their population, and the slaves would mine more metal for coining. a nice little feedback loop.

anyway, sorry i got a bit off track there, but my real point was: currency was, by all historical evidence, definitely an invention of/majorly promoted by the state.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#334

"After all, no bank or bitcoin-emitter can be as public-minded as a government..." Ahem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe You can't slap a sticker saying "public-minded!" on a government, and expect it to therefore be public-minded, any more than you can slap an "environmentally friendly!" sticker on a coal power plant and expect it to stop polluting. "What kind of role, if any, should a govern…

did you read the article? the article is about how he views bitcoin as a response to governmental failures in practicing responsible monetary policy.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#335
post #6
post #3

I don't know if bitcoin is doomed to fail or not but, the thesis of this article isn't credible. There has never been anything like cryptocurrency in the history of the world and this statement may well not apply: "They will fail, because money that is not issued by governments is always doomed to failure. Money is inevitably a tool of the state."

Is gold issued by governments?

yes, most gold-backed currencies were issued by governments and contained a significant fiduciary element (aka, one gold coin was worth more than its weight in gold).

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#336
> They will fail, because money that is not issued by governments is always doomed to failure.

Stopped reading right there. Does this author actually believe that money is issued by governments?

Why do you think your notes have "Bank of England" or "Federal Reserve", or whatnot written on them?

It's because they're issued by those private institutions. They're not government bodies.

Of course, the government has the alleged power to regulate those private institutions, but in reality it works the other way - those private institutions have the real leverage to regulate governments.

It's because the governments are in debt to the private institutions that they can force the government to back their monopoly issuance of currency, and of course, they can force the government to privatize publicly owned assets to pay back the debts.

Once you see past the very basic myth that "governments issue money", you quickly realize why politics is theatre, and any chance of change to the status quo won't happen through government. Bitcoin is the game changer.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't account for an imbalance in the number of potential buyers and sellers. It's very easy to buy a house for $100 million. Go to your real estate agent and say "Here's a $100 million. Buy me a house." It is, however, considerably harder to sell a house for $100 million.

What do you think determines the price? If you can't sell a bitcoin, you lower the price til you can sell it. If you can't buy a bitcoin, you raise how much you will pay until you can buy one. The only reasons it is different with houses is because people are emotionally invested in them, not all houses are equivalent (and thus their value is unique per house), and liquidity is hence really low, and market prices adj…

So profound a concept, yet so simple, and often at the root of so much fallacious thinking. Thanks for taking the time to educate our economically challenged friends.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#338
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

>there's no need to convert them. Have you tried paying your taxes in Bitcoin? The IRS (or regional equivalent) is not going to accept bitcoin any time soon and they will want you to pay taxes on, for example, profits. There is a need to convert, don't believe otherwise.

>Have you tried paying your taxes in Bitcoin?

Not yet.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#339
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose there's nothing I'd ever want to buy from one of the merchants advertising here: http://www.bitcoinblackfriday.com/

Woo, bacon lollipops, server hosting, and pizza. Truly the essentials. You need grocery stores, gas stations, clothing stores, and restaurants to start accepting it. Until then, it's really just a novelty for middle class college Libertarians.

I love saying this:

Do you think that cryptocurrencies spring fully-formed from the forehead of Zeus?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#340

He is essentially giving the chartalist theory of money. Money cannot arise except through the fiat of the state. Chartalists hate the Mengerian theory on the origin of money because it posits that money arises as a market phenomena. Eventually the state co-opted money, but that does not mean money arose because of the state. The emergence of bitcoin is a thorn in the side to chartalists. We can't really go back and…

> We can't really go back and figure out the exact history of how gold emerged as money

actually, we can. it's called historical anthropology, and books upon books have been written on the topic. to summarize those books for you: the chartalists were basically right. standardized currency and thus stable markets took off once governments did what governments do: pass laws to standardize things. also, contrary to your assertion that the only "monetization" event was "how gold emerged as money", we've actually gone through a number of cycles back and forth between gold/precious metal-backed money and credit-backed money. metal-backed money tends to hold during periods of imperialism and warfare (where the expected lifetime of a given state is low due to risk of being conquered/defeated, and soldiers have high exposure to other markets), while credit-backed money tends to emerge during periods of stability and peace (where states are more stable and trust-worthy than the rate at which some given metal comes out of the ground).

Post reply on HN